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Nadine is Nadone, TS Oscar forms, Season outlook

By: wxchaser97 , 12:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

TS Nadine
There is not much to write about Nadine besides she is almost Nadone. Nadine is somehow hanging on to enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a tropical storm. Nadine doesn't have a lot of 40-45mph per ASCAT and the there is not convection over the center. At the 5am advisory the NHC had Nadine with 45mph winds, 996mb pressure and she was moving NE at 23mph. They noted that Nadine was beginning to lose some tropical characteristics and Nadine will likely be post-tropical today. It is possible that Nadine ties Kyles record for 4th longest lived hurricane in the Atlantic. High wind shear, cool waters, and Nadine being absorbed by baroclinic energy will be the end for Nadine. Nadine should still bring tropical storm force winds to the Azores.

TS Oscar
At 11pm EDT tropical storm Oscar formed despite not much convection over the center. That remains the case this morning with most of the thunderstorms on the west side of the storm. Oscar the grouch has finally broke the curse of this naming list becoming the first time Oscar has been used. At 5am Oscar had 40mph winds, a 1006mb pressure, and was moving NNW at 9mph. Some wind shear is impacting Oscar which is why there is no convection over the center. An anticyclone, which is not helping a tropical cyclone, and some ULL in the area are creating the shear affecting Oscar. Shear is only expected to increase over the next two days and SST's will decrease. These two factors tell me that Oscar is going to have a short life. While he may do a little strengthening Oscar won't get strong. The remnants of Oscar will go to possibly the Azores.

My forecast for Nadine and Oscar

Season outlook
As we are slowly ending the 2012 hurricane season I felt like saying how many more storms we will get, where, and when. First we have got the name Oscar the first time since that name was used. That bring us up to 15 named storms this season, another above-average year. It is possible to get another 1 maybe 2 storms, Oscar forming from 96L has made me change my numbers. For the past few years a late season hurricane has developed in the Caribbean and that could certainly happen this year. If we get a Caribbean hurricane it would probably be in the middle to late October time frame. There is also the possibility of getting a named storm from a front in the GOM or off the east coast. Everyone still needs to be ready for a storm and hope one doesn't form.

Have a great Thursday everyone and I will have another update tomorrow.
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3:57 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
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I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist

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