I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 3:26 AM GMT on July 22, 2012
An area of thunderstorms circulating around a low pressure system has been numbered invest 90E by the NHC. They are giving 90E a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Right now 90E has winds of 30mph and is moving WNW at 14mph. If/when 90E develops into a TS its name would be Gilma. 90E has a defined circulation that is covered by convection. Should see organization continue with deeper convectin firing and the circulation becoming more defined. With low to moderate shear, moist air, and warm sst's 90E should become a TS in the next few days. I think it will be a moderate to strong TS before it starts weakening. 90E is expected to not hit any landmass but maybe its remnents affect Hawaii. Other than 90E no TS formation is expected in the next 48 hrs.
TS Vicente has formed in the South China Sea. He is a 50mph TS and is forecasted to become a strong TS.
Convection has wrapped around the center which increased the winds which lead to the upgrade to a TS. Water is warm and shear is low so strengthening is likely until landfall. Vicente could be a flooding threat to anyone in his path. There shouldn't be any other system that formes in the next few days.
Possible Atlantic development/enviorment conditions
There is not much to say about the Atlantic since there is no systems. There is too much SAL and dry air in the E Atlantic and too much shear in the Caribbean. Conditions are expected to improve over the next few weeks. This has made TS formation difficult even though this is normal this time of year. The east coast has above normal sst and below normal shear. There could be a TS if a system can get in that area. The GFS still shows the possibility of a trough split over the next couple days. A TS could come from this if this scenario happens but this is unlikely. A few models start to show a low come off Africa in the next week or two. It probably won't develop but it could clear out SAL and moisten the air more. Nothing of other intrest is shown by the models.
A blob is over the western gulf and gulf coast. This blob is not forecasted to develop. A high pressure system, ridge, and trough are all causing the t-storm complex. The water is hot and the air is moist but the blob is interacting with land and there is moderate shear. A front is dropping through the northern atlantic. A few frontal lows are embedded in the front. Not much is expected from the lows and development is unlikely. A tropical wave has came off of Africa. It has a low pressure with it and has convection within the circulation. Water temps are relatively warm and shear is low but SAL/ dry air should stop development. This wave should clear out some SAL/ dry air and give us an idea of how other waves will react to the enviorment. It has some organizational traits and I think it has a low chance 5-10% chance of every developing. There are no other areas of intrest to talk about.
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