I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 11:57 AM GMT on September 27, 2012
Topical storm Nadine is still moving around in the Atlantic Ocean. She has actually even looked better than she did 12 hours ago. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, 992mb pressure, and she is moving SW at 6mph. The circulation has became better defined even though convection is limited. This has been the story of Nadine for the past several days of her fluctuations in intensity. Nadine has the second highest amount of ACE in the Atlantic and will likely take the number 1 spot in a few days. Nadine also could become one of longest lived tropical storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic, if not the longest.
The forecast for Nadine is once again not going to be an easy one. Nadine has never been easy to forecast and won't start being easy anytime soon. Right now models are confused as to how long Nadine stays alive and where she goes. Some models take Nadine east while others take her SW or have her doing little movement. Right now I have to try to pick a consensus and make an educated guess. Personally I have just about seen this name enough to start wanting it to go away. Most models however keep Nadine alive for a good amount of time and we will have to see. All I can say is I think Nadine will last for about another week or so and follow somewhat near the NHC track.
Intensity wise Nadine is coming back. Her satellite presentation has been improving throughout the morning. I think Nadine could even do a little more strengthening despite the lack of convection. Nadine is currently over warm water and the environment has lower shear. This would support strengthening if it wasn't for a good amount of dry air in Nadine's way. Over the next couple days the environment will deteriorate and Nadine should weaken. It is possible that the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler waters finally kill her off. I think Nadine should be able to stay alive and after that conditions get a little better. Right now it is just too unpredictable to back a high confidence forecast for Nadine.
Have a great Thursday everyone and I will have a full tropical update later today or tomorrow. Here is the link to my Hurricane Isaac and Saffir-Simpson blog, Link.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.