I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 11:30 AM GMT on September 21, 2012
Tropical storm Nadine strengthens as she moves away from the Azores. Currently winds are at 65mph, pressure is 981mb, and she is moving SE at 8mph. While the wind speeds have came up and the pressure has dropped her satellite appearance is dwindling. There is little convection on the NE half of the storm and overall convection is not extremely deep. The reason for strengthening is Nadine is probably getting some non-tropical energy as conditions are not good for strengthening. With the intensity uptick there is some changes in the forecast from earlier.
Nadine continues to be a confusing storm with this intensity jump. This was a surprise given Nadine should be weakening or at least maintaining strength earlier. Also satellite shows that Nadine is not doing good. The whole northern side of the storm is void of convection and there doesn't look to be improvement. In fact, satellite imagery is showing Nadine may be trying to turn extra-tropical which is something to watch. Wind shear is pretty strong over Nadine and SST's are cool so any rising of the winds isn't from tropical organization. I do believe in the next few days Nadine should transition to an extra-tropical storm. Shear could decrease for a little bit but I'm not totally sure if that will happen or what Nadine would even do. After that Nadine's future is up in the air.
Models are still split on where Nadine will go. They can not agree on where/when a recurve would happen. This has been the norm for the models over the past few days. In the short term models show an ESE movement, which is backed up by the current environment. There is little agreement between the global models after a few days. My forecast doesn't have a lot of confidence since models don't have a lot of agreement. I see Nadine moving ESE to SE over the next couple days and then everything is mostly unknown.
Invest 94L has changed little in organization over the past day. Any little change has not had much affect on the system. Currently 94L is a non-tropical low with tropical storm force winds. 94L has 40mph winds, a 1006mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 10mph per the latest ATCF update. 94L is trying to become a subtropical storm as shown by the circulation and some thunderstorms tightening up. Right now conditions are conducive for some strengthening for another 2 days or so. Then 94L will get absorbed by a front and any tropical development will be stopped. I think 94L has a good chance of becoming a subtropical storm and I give it a 60% chance in the next 48hrs of doing so. The NHC gives 94L a 50% chance in their latest update which is still a good chance. If 94L doesn't ramp up soon I will have to begin to lower my chances on 94L developing.
Have a great Friday everyone and I'll have a new update tomorrow on Nadine, 94L, 93E, and the new Western Pacific storm.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.