I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 4:58 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Tropical storm Nadine is slowly weakening and turning extra-tropical as she heads toward the Azores. Satellite appearance shows the transition from tropical to post-tropical due to shear and cooler waters. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, has a 989mb pressure, and is moving NE at 9mph. Convection has been trying to cover the center back up and over the past few hours has been having more success. This convection is weak though and the environment doesn't favor strengthening. Nadine should maintain strength or even weaken slightly over the next 5 days. The track is what will be very difficult. Models are very split on exactly where Nadine will go and if she will be tropical or non-tropical. Nadine should continue to go NE until she gets near the Azores and then, as most models indicate, turn around and head toward the south. Nadine could go SW and turn tropical, go S and slowly turn tropical, or go SE and possibly stay extra-tropical. No matter where Nadine exactly tracks she will bring squally weather to the Azores. Nadine will also most likely be alive for awhile before either dying off or getting picked up by a trough. People in the Azores need to be preparing for possible TS conditions.
Hurricane Lane in the Eastern Pacific is slowly strengthening over open waters. He is expected to weaken soon and be a remnant low in a few days. Currently Lane has 80mph winds, a 989mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 10mph. His appearance on satellite is pretty good right now but should begin to change. Some change is already evident as his eye is starting to dissapear. Lane will turn to the WNW and weaken over the next few days. Lane is not a threat to land and will turn extra-tropical in a few days.
My tropical forecast
Early winter forecast
As summer comes to a close and fall begins winter is close to beginning. Some areas will feel winter conditions in a month or two so it is around time to make my first 2012-2013 winter forecast.
Right now I am thinking we will be in a warm neutral ENSO pattern. This has a great affect on how the winter will shape up. I think we will have a negative PDO and NAO which will allow more cold air to flow down from the Artic. The Great Lakes will see cooler weather with an average to above average snowfall. The NE/Mid Atlantic should see a few Nor'easters this year which would have good snow totals. The plains and upper Midwest could see average to mild weather this winter. In the SW a wet winter with mountain snow is possible and a mild winter in the NW. This forecast will likely change as we get closer to winter and is not an official HPC forecast.
Have a great Tuesday and I will have an update tomorrow plus a blog on the hurricane rating system/changes needed later in the afternoon today.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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