I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 3:09 AM GMT on July 18, 2012
East Pacific Ocean
Fabio weakens and new AOI
TS Fabio has been downgraded to a TD. He has winds of 35mph and a pressure of 1006mb. Fabio should be a remnant low tomorrow.His satellite appearence is ragged and he is quickly falling apart. Cool waters and dry air have taken their toll on Fabio. He might just bring clouds and light winds to California. A tropical wave is located around 775 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The area is large and poorly organized. The NHC gives it a 10% chance of development. I agree that it has a low chance of development. The mopdels don't really develop it into anything major. Any development of this system will take its time. No other development is expected in the next week.
Possible North Atlantic Development
The GFS and ECMF models are predicting a surface front to emerge into the north Atlantic over the next few days. This front will have embeded vortices/ low pressure systems. The models have not worked out whether any low would be tropical, sub-tropical, or non-tropical. I think there is a low to moderate chance of seeing atleast 1 TS. No other development is predicted by any reliable model for the next 2 weeks.
A ULL located on the GA coastline is firing convection from time to time. The ULL has a well defined spin and is in a favorable enviorment. It could work down to the surface and make a surface low and develop something. I doubt that would happen, 0-5% chance, since there is no support by the models. The wave train is currently in a lull. Not much is going on in the east Atlantic besides a few waves over Africa. We still need a couple weeks before anything can get going. The factors stopping development are SAL, no mjo, and wind shear. A disturbance in the northwest Atlantic has been numbered 91L. The invest is mostly void of convection and cloud cover. The invest is in an unfavorable to marginally favorable enviorment and development is not expected. A couple tropical waves are in the central Atlantic streching to the Carribian. They are poorly organized and should not develop. There are no other note worthy disturbances.
Heat wave and storms
The latest heat wave that is gripping the nation is still around. More record highs were set in the north today. High for most places were over 100F with the extreme heat shifting east tomorrow. The NWS placed many people under heat advisories and warnings for today and tomorrow. A cold front will bring temporary relief from the heat. This front has the potential for sparking off severe storms. Storms may contain large hail and strong winds. The front will slide out in the next few days.
Hot and dry conditions will percist for much of the country. This means the drought will continue to spread and intensify across the country. This will hurt water levels for lakes and agricultural intrests. Als a fire danger from the hot and dry conditions exists in the west. Daytime heating storms will continue in the hot airmass. Any storm could produce flooding, large hail, and strong winds. Monsoonal moisture will continue to spark thunderstorms in the west. These storms can produce heavy rain. There is no more notable weather.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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