I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 12:06 PM GMT on September 13, 2012
TS Nadine formed just over 24hrs ago and has been strengthening nicely. Right now Nadine has 70mph winds and a 990mb pressure and is moving NW @ 16mph. She has solid convection and outflow on all sides which is good for strengthening, see figure 1. Recent microwave pass however shows that the eyewall is only partially formed. Satellite estimates and a recent ASCAT pass show 60knt winds so the NHC has Nadine right now at 70mph. Nadine is trying to still do more organizing and she should be a hurricane today. She needs to build a proper eyewall before she can return to quick strengthening. I now say a 95mph peak as it has taken her just a little longer than I thought to strengthen into a hurricane. Nadine is in a good environment for about another 36ish hours and then will be affected by shear. That shear is from the same trough that dissipated Leslie and Michael. Luckily a strong ull will pull Nadine in closer so that it isn't weakened dramatically by the trough. So in short Nadine will be sharply turned to the ENE by a trough and pulled in by a low. Nadine could be a threat to the Azores and possibly Europe but it's too far out to tell.
Figure 1: Nadine has good convection and outflow but some more work needs to be done.
Figure 2: My latest forecast for Nadine
TS Kristy formed yesterday in the Eastern pacific. Right now Kristy has 50mph winds and a 1002mb pressure. She is not the best looking storm but she is still developing. Kristy is forecasted to become a strong TS but could get to a minimal hurricane. Once She gets too far north cooler waters and shear will weaken Kristy and eventually turn her post-tropical. Kristy should stay out to sea but the Baja needs to still watch her just in case.
Figure 3: TS Kristy is developing in the epac.
Typhoon Sanba is a really good looking typhoon. It has very deep convection, a crystal clear eye, and great outflow. the JTWC has Sanba at a conservative 115knts. She is estimated by ADT and SAB/TAFB to be a cat4-5. Her satellite appearance shows that, it also shows a NE movement. Sanba is a threat to some Asian countries and can't be taken lightly. Sanba is a huge storm and its impacts will be far reaching where ever she goes.
Figure 4: Typhoon Sanba most likely as a cat5.
Have a great Thursday and I'll have an update tomorrow morning.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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