I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 11:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2012
Last night TD14 strengthened enough to be classified as a tropical storm. SAB/TAFB #'s along with T#'s and ATCF all showed Nadine was a TS. As of the 5am advisory Nadine has 45mph winds, a 1001mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 17mph. Nadine has a nice circulation which is very evident on satellite. Satellite also shows good sized/strength convection which is something a developing storm needs, see Figure 1. Microwave imagery shows that a weak eyewall may be trying to already form. Wind shear is light, air is moist, waters are warm so Nadine has a great environment for the next few days to work with. She will be able to strength up to a cat1 maybe a cat2 hurricane before she runs into harsher conditions. Those would be higher shear which would allow some dry air to get in. Shear and dry air would disrupt the circulation and convection which causes weakening. The trough will have turned Nadine off to the east and accelerate here. Nadine is a possible threat to the Azores but it is too far out to exactly know.
Figure 1: Satellite shows a healthy TS with good outflow and convection.
The GFS and Euro models both predict a few storms and a few more waves coming off Africa look promising. The GFS has been somewhat consistent with a TS developing near the Cape Verde Islands in the late part of the run. It also has shown some development in the NW Caribbean. Since it is that far out it can't be sure if it will happen. The ECMFW develops a weak system in the GOM and sends it near the gulf coast. It also develops a TS in the upper latitudes and then the run ends. Some strong waves over Africa need to be watched for development, see figure 2.
Figure 2: Africa has a few strong waves with a really good one that is not seen in this picture.
Figure 3: My forecast for Nadine which I take her up to a 100mph cat2 before weakening.
Have a great Wednesday and I'll have an update tomorrow.
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