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No change in strength for Lesle, Michael weakening, 91L organizing

By: wxchaser97 , 11:01 AM GMT on September 10, 2012

TS Leslie
Tropical storm Leslie has not changed strength for awhile as she goes off to the NNE at 16mph. Her current intensity is 60mph winds and a 988mb pressure and she is located at 35.7N/61.2W as of the latest advisory. Leslie is still being affected by dry air and this has kept her from doing much. Right now the dry air is getting in from the south and western sides of Leslie. This is confirmed by the lack of convection is these areas. Convection has been lacking in all quadrants at different times, it just depends where the dry air gets in at that time. Bermuda got rain and TS force wind from Leslie, luckily Leslie never got to become a major hurricane. Not much has come out of Bermuda right now and I suspect they did fine. Leslie should continue to head away from Bermuda and in a couple days hit New Newfoundland most likely as a TS. A trough will accelerate Leslie to the NE and Leslie will be becoming extra-tropical as it gets near Canada. After Canada Leslie may be a threat to Greenland, Iceland, or the UK. Leslie will also be interacting with Michael/Michael's remnants. Most likely Leslie will absorb Michael into her larger circulation. Leslie's peak was 75mph, luckily not 120mph as there would have been more damage to Bermuda.

Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael is moving to the west at a slower pace of 7mph. Michael has 80mph winds and a 97mb pressure. He still has good convection and an eye but everything has been decreasing. Michael was once a 120mph major hurricane which was the first major of the season. Michael has been meandering around as there hasn't been much in the way of steering. A trough that is picking up Leslie will also turn and pick up Michael. He will continue to weaken and is not a threat to land. Michael should end up getting absorbed into Leslie to create a big extra-tropical storm.

A couple days ago we got a vigorous tropical wave to come off the coast of Africa. This wave was tagged as invest 91L. Right now the NHC gives 91L a 90% chance of becoming a TD in the next 48hrs. Currently I agree with the percentage set at 90% to maybe 1000% right now. 91L should become a TD and then TS Nadine over the next few days. It is possible that 91L becomes a hurricane/ major hurricane or it just stays a troubled TS. Right now the pattern favors a re-curve out to sea and 91L looks to follow this. 91L right now doesn't look to be a threat to much land but it is still worth watching.

My Forecast

I made this just before the 8am TWO so 91L is officially at 90% and I give now 100%.

Future Development
Models are indicating that a few more Cape Verde type storms ill be possible over the next few weeks. A couple waves are currently over Africa and once a wave gets into the Atlantic it bears watching. Also after the next few weeks we will be looking close to home for development. The SE US coast, GOM, and NW Caribbean will be the hot spots most likely for the last couple months of hurricane season.

Have a safe Monday and I will have an update in the next day or two.
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2. wxchaser97
7:10 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
thx man

You're welcome man.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. GeorgiaStormz
4:41 PM GMT on September 10, 2012
thx man
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist

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