I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 2:57 PM GMT on September 01, 2012
Remnants of Isaac
Isaac is the type of storm that just does not want to go away. The remnants of Isaac and before that Isaac have been going up to the Ohio Valley now. The remnants of Isaac are bringing heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes to parts of the plains and Ohio valley. Tornadoes were reported near St. Louis yesterday and flooding has been widespread. Beneficial rain has fallen in the drought stricken areas and Isaac is being thanked for this. Isaac's damage has already been done in the gulf and will be remembered for a long time. Isaac did at least $2 billion dollars in insured damage, that is expected to rise and uninsured damages, and some fatalities were reported. Even though Isaac was "only a cat1" he did a lot of damage and it could've been worse. I'll be writing a blog on how the Saffer Simpson scale did with Isaac and my idea of how to fix some problems in the next few days.
Figure 1: Isaac's remnants over the Midwest
TS Kirk is rapidly exiting stage left. Kirk has been weakening over the past day or so as drier air, shear and cooler waters work against him. Kirk is also turning extra-tropical as he interacts with a trough and should complete the process in about 24 hours. Right now Kirk has 70mph winds, a 989mb pressure, and is moving NE @ 25mph. Convection has been waning and his circulation a little less defined. Kirk should weaken to a TS later today. Kirk is not a threat to land and only to some shipping interests.
Figure 2: TS Kirk turning extra-tropical as he speeds NE.
TS Leslie has been slowly organizing but still has some problems. She has brought herself all the way up to a strong TS. Right now Leslie has 70mph winds, 994mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 18mph. She has excellent out flow over most of the storm and a good amount of convection. Leslie's problem is a disorganized center. The LLC and MLC have been tilted and not very organized. Leslie is trying to fix that problem with a possible new LLC under the MLC. We will have to wait another few hours before we see if this is really happening. Leslie is starting to feel the weakness of the ridge to the north. She is turning to the north but will still bring impacts to the Leeward Islands. Leslie will get very close to Bermuda and could bring TS to even hurricane conditions there depending how close she gets. Leslie has a low landfall threat to the US and and little higher threat to Canada. A trough should re-curve Leslie out to see but if the ridge is stronger than expected Leslie could get closer to the US and Canada. My forecast for Leslie and Kirk can be found in figure 4 and my new graphical outlook in figure 5.
Figure 3: Leslie churning the water of the Atlantic
I'll have a new update tomorrow. Here is my forecast and outlook.
Figure 4: my forecast, not official. Do not use for making life or death decisions. Go to the NHC for the official forecast.
Figure 5: my graphical outlook
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