I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 3:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
TS Isaac made landfall yesterday as a 75mph hurricane. Since he is over land he has been weakening and is now a 40mph TS. Isaac has a pressure of 987mb, which is really low for a 40mph TS, and is moving NNW @ 9mph. Isaac has lost all convection on the west side of the storm due to dry air. The east side is still producing heavy rain and areas east of the center have picked up to 10"+ of rain so far. With Isaac's slow NW motion more rain/flooding is expected. Tornadoes have been another problem lately with Isaac. Numerous tornado warnings have been issued over the past day around 10-12 being reported. Over the next couple days Isaac will continue NNW and slowly pick up speed. He will then really speed up and then turn to the east near St. Louis. Isaac will bring beneficial rain to some drought stricken areas. Isaac will continue to weaken and go extra-tropical and will dissipate in a couple days. The damage has already been done in LA, MS, AL, and FL and Isaac will be remembered for a while.
TS Kirk has been steadily strengthening since yesterday and is now a hurricane. Right now Kirk looks really good and is primed for more intensifying. Convection is strong and an eye has appeared on satellite which shows a healthy system. latest NHC advisory had Kirk at 75mph winds and a 989mb pressure. The latest ATCF has Kirk at 70mph and at 11am Kirk will likely be 70-75mph. Kirk will continue with its turn to the north today and strengthen to a hurricane. As for peak strength I think a moderate cat1-low end cat2 is likely. Kirk will be no threat to land as he is in the middle of the Atlantic. After a few days Kirk will begin to lose tropical characteristics and become extra-tropical.
TD12 will be another storm to watch as a threat to the US. Right now TD12 has 35mph winds and a 1007mb pressure and is moving W @ 20mph. Satellite shows a good circulation covered by convection and it has 35mph which warrants depression status. While TD12 will likely go out to sea per the latest models this year has shown anything can happen. Models have been showing TD12 re-curving out to sea and this is likely. Its still possible to get some higher waves and rip currents from TD12 so the US is not in the clear. I think TD12 could be this year's first major hurricane. It is still too early to make a solid intensity/track forecast.
The year is getting very active and more storms are predicted by the models in the future.
Here is my forecast for Isaac, Kirk, and TD12:
I'll have a new update tomorrow, stay safe everyone who got affected by Isaac.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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