I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 5:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2012
Past few days
At 12:20pm EDT TS Isaac became Hurricane Isaac. Back to a few days ago Isaac left Cuba. His circulation was disrupted and he weakened some. He was predicted to rebound quickly and hit the FL keys as a hurricane. This never happened, dry air/ some shear kept Isaac in check. A 65mph TS went through the FL Keys producing heavy rain/wind and flooding. He could've been worse but luckily wasn't. He was forecasted to go into the GOM and become a strong hurricane. Also that's didn't happen, he went into the GOM but could not strengthen. With his circulation distorted he could not recover. He held his own through most of the GOM until last night. That is when he began to overcome his struggles and strengthen. Earlier today he intensified enough to be classified a hurricane. Storm surge and rain/flooding would be his major threats.
Right now Isaac has 80mph winds and a 968mb pressure. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. He has been going NW and SW so its just drifting offshore. His convective/cloud field has became very circular over the evening. His radar appearance has also improved greatly over the afternoon and evening. Flight level winds have been up too 110mph but only 80mph surface winds. Isaac has a pressure of a cat2, winds of a cat1, and storm surge of a cat2/3. Aircraft recon is currently investigating Isaac and is finding him slowly strengthening. The winds may go up to 85mph but that will be it if there is any increase. Isaac has been building up a storm surge that is up to 14-15ft. Combined with the flooding rains this has been stressful on the levees and a few have been or close to over topped. The heavy rain has been causing a lot of flooding so please do not drive around. The strong winds and heavy rain have been uprooting trees and knocking out power. Right now 220,000 people are without power in Louisiana alone.
Isaac is a dangerous storm and needs to be taken seriously. Right now he may have weakened slightly but is still dangerous. Some Wunderbloggers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have been getting wrecked by Isaac, hopefully they are ok.
Forecast for Isaac
Isaac's forecast is becoming a little easier. Since he is close to landfall he doesn't have many places to go. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. He may be starting to move more west as a possible upper level ridge to the north is forcing him to the west. He would then have more time over water and would make landfall farther west as well. A prolonged surge, flooding, rain, wind,and tornado threat is in store for AL, MS, LA, and even parts of TX. Isaac will eventually move inland over the next day. After 36 hours he will begin to accelerate away from NOLA. They will have gotten around 12ft storm surge, 10-20" of rain, high winds, and flooding by then. Isaac will provide some wind and beneficial rain to the central plains, Ohio valley, and the Great Lakes. Isaac's legacy will be the rain/flooding/surge. Hopefully everyone has been and is ready for Isaac.
TS Kirk and Invest 98L
TD11 formed earlier in the day. A good circulation had convection develop and persist which was enough for classification. Satellite indicated it strengthened which indicated TD11 became TS Kirk. Kirk is not a major threat to land. Kirk has 45mph winds and a 1007mb pressure. He is forecasted to become a strong TS and go out to sea.
A new invest, 98L, was numbered earlier in the evening. It has 25mph winds and is moving in a westward direction. It has been organizing nicely and the NHC give 98L a 30% of developing over the next 48 hours. I give 98L a 50% chance of developing in the next 48hrs. Models have been developing this wave for awhile and it needs to be watched for tropical development.
I'll have a new update later today/ at the latest tomorrow. A side note is Isaac will make landfall near the same location and time as Katrina did 7 years earlier. Isaac isn't as bad as Katrina but he is still bad.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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