I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 8:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2012
Past few days
Tropical storm Isaac made landfall last night as a 70mph TS in Haiti and then 60mph in Cuba. Isaac has been producing heavy rain and wind for Hispaniola ans S Cuba. Isaac has been blamed for a few deaths in Haiti and more deaths/damage is expected to come out. Until yesterday Isaac was disorganized with multiple centers and was decoupled. Yesterday conditions improved and then Isaac got vertically stacked, a well organized center formed, and convection wrapped around the center. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba have weakened Isaac some.
Current conditions of Isaac
Right now Isaac has 60mph winds and a 1000mb pressure. Isaac has been wobbling around for the past few hours. This shouldn't have too much of an impact on his track. The circulation has remained pretty well intact and there is some convection near it. Convection is starting to increase a little and the coc is over water right now. So Isaac should begin to re-strengthen today. He still has a way to go before looking really good but he is not dead. Right now a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is investigating Isaac. So far they are finding Isaac a 50mph-60mph and 999mb-1000mb TS. So any speculation that Isaac will weaken a lot should be put to bed. Also a NOAA Gonzo jet is investigating the environment in front of Isaac. This data set will go into the models and make some improvements. In short, right now Isaac is holding his own.
Forecast for Isaac
Isaac may weaken a bit or stay the same over the next this afternoon and evening. He will have to re build his core and fire more convection. He should not die or weaken considerably. He will move along/ offshore Cuba for the next day and build himself back up. When Isaac nears the FL Keys he could be a cat1 hurricane. Waters are really warm and he should have a good environment. It all depends on how much he re-organizes today/tonight. Hurricane warnings and TS warnings are up for S FL so please listen to officials and act on your hurricane preparations. Once Isaac gets into the GOM he should intensify steadily and possibly go into rapid intensification. I think a 120mph peak, 115-110mph landfall between Mobile, AL and Panama City, FL is likely. Most people in FL will receive heavy rain and TS force winds from Isaac. Some in S FL and parts of the Panhandle could receive hurricane conditions and tornadoes. Tampa should receive TS force winds and heavy rain/flooding. The GOM is ripe for intensification but not for cat4/5. So I think a peak at cat3 is likely. Anyone in the path of Isaac or who will feel his effects should monitor the situation closely.
Invest 97L in the C ATL is organizing. It is forming a low level center and has been firing some convection. It has a way to go before becoming a TD and I give 97L a 50% chance of developing in the next 48hrs. 97L could be a threat to the US. Also models have been developing a wave currently over Africa. That could also be a threat to land. We are in a very busy time right now.
I'll have a new update tomorrow
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