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By: wxchaser97 , 10:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Invest 92L has been renumbered and named TD7 by the NHC. TD7 has 35mph winds, 1010mb pressure and is moving W @ 20mph. TD7 has a well defined llc and convection has been building over it. Organization trends throughout the day have been increasing and the NHC decided that the low was depression status worthy. TD7 is in a relatively favorable environment for gradual strengthening and TD7 could be TS Gordon tomorrow. Shear has been fairly low and sst's are warm but dry air is a factor. TD7 has been able to overcome this dry air and not much should stop this from organizing. In the short term TD7 will move W and steadily but slowly strengthen. Once it gets in the Caribbean it will have the same problem as Ernesto, trade winds. The trade winds should keep TD7 from becoming a major system in the Caribbean. Steering patterns could lead TD7 into the gulf and then all bets are of. A serious system could arise if TD7 makes it into the gulf. People in the Caribbean and gulf need to watch the progress of TD7 and need to start thinking about their hurricane plans/prep.
TS Ernesto made landfall earlier today near Coatzacoalcos, MX with 60mph winds. When he made landfall in the Yucatan he was likely stronger but since recon had mechanical problems we don't know the true intensity. Ernesto has dropped heavy rain and some wind but luckily not much damage reports have came from Mexico. Ernesto should weaken but he may redevelop in the epac. If he does he won't be a threat to land. People in S MX still need to watch for minor wind damage, flooding, and land/mudslides.
Ex-Florence: A tropical wave, the remnants of Florence, is producing vigorous but disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands. Environment conditions are not really favorable and major development is not expected but it still needs to be watched.
African wave: A tropical wave is emerging off the African landmass. Right now the wave is looking good but the land to ocean transition and some dry air will limit develop for now. I give this area a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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