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Tropical Storm Raymond reorganizing after becoming EPAC's first major

By: wxchaser97 , 1:46 PM GMT on October 25, 2013

Tropical Storm Raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond is trying to restrengthen several hundred miles off the Mexican coast. It first developed from a disturbance that originated from near Central America. It slowly organized and acquired an organized surface circulation. Raymond became a tropical depression at 8pm PDT October 19th. It continued to organize and became TS Raymond the next advisory. Under low shear, very warm SST's, and a moist atmosphere, Raymond was able to enter a period of rapid intensification. It quickly strengthened into a category 2 hurricane with a solid ULAC and deep convection surrounding a warming eye. Raymond was able to become, finally, the EPAC's first major hurricane of the season as it stalled just off the Mexican coast. Hurricane warnings were issued as the storm brought high winds and heavy rain to parts of S Mexico. As quickly as it strengthen, Raymond began to weaken. The cause of this weakening is likely the upwelling of cool ocean waters below the surface. This decreased amount of heat energy available, along with a little dry air, looks to have cause the demise of Raymond. It weakened all they way down to a weak tropical storm that was mostly devoid of deep convection. However, Raymond has been able to survive its weakening episode and has entered a more favorable environment. SST's and TCHP have been increasing allow Raymond to reorganize itself. Deep convection has re-fired over the center and some banding features have developed. However, the circulation isn't as strong as it was earlier and the low-level and mid-level centers look to be tilted a little when looking at UW-CIMSS 850-500mb vorticity maps. Still, satellite intensities have been slowly increasing with SAB at T3.0 and ADT near T3.5. The latest advisory information and satellite image can be found below.

2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 25
Location: 14.2°N 108.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Forecast for TS Raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond looks like it still should strengthen some over the next few days. Raymond has left the area where it did upwelling and has entered a more favorable region. SHIPS analysis shows SST's remaining 28.0C+ for the next couple days. Also, the upper air profile has been improving around Raymond. More upper-level outflow has become established in all quadrants. UW-CIMSS and GFS upper-level analysis show a more anticyclonic flow than earlier. This is helping ventilate the system and fend off some shear. This should help keep upper-level winds favorable for intensification for the nest couple days. Later in the forecast period, mid and upper-level wind shear should increase in response to an approaching trough from the north. SST's will also be becoming a little more marginal during that period. Raymond will begin its final weakening period during that time. Before then, it looks like Raymond should be able to have enough time to become a hurricane again. Intensity guidance also shows Raymond regaining hurricane status. They also agree the Raymond should begin weakening at about day 4. My forecast is pretty close to the NHC's.

Raymond is moving west at about 10mph. The low-level center is pretty hard to locate on conventional satellite images. Luckily, ASCAT passes and microwave images have been able to get a better center fix. I'd put the center at around 14.3N and moving W-WSW based on extrapolated ASCAT passes. Raymond should turn to the WSW soon in response to the mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge should continue sending Raymond to the WSW for the next couple days. The continued WSW motion is shown on UW-CIMSS steering maps Models are in good agreement of the track of Raymond in the short term. After that time, Raymond should turn NW in response to the trough to the north. The trough should then turn Raymond to the N and then NE over the next several days after that. Models are in decent agreement, though not as much as in the short term, for the track of Raymond. My forecast track is pretty similar to the NHC's. Raymond won't affect any land areas in the next 5 days.

Forecast Intensity

INIT 25/1300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:53 PM GMT on October 30, 2013
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
2. wxchaser97
1:53 PM GMT on October 25, 2013
Quoting 1. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
first Vis sat image of Raymond is out Isaac

I just saw that, still doesn't really affect anything drastically.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2013
first Vis sat image of Raymond is out Isaac

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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