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TD 11L becomes TS Jerry

By: wxchaser97 , 3:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2013

Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry formed late this morning, becoming the 10th named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Jerry has improved its overall structure from last night, but is sort of lacking in the deep convection department. Last night, 11L had the appearance of the sheared tropical cyclone that wasn't very organized. Today, however, shear has abated enough to allow convection to develop fully around the center. Also it has allowed some banding features to develop and outflow to improve. However, Jerry is battling some dry air which is probably why, along with durnial minimum being present, that convection is pretty meager at this time. Satellite estimates are T3.0 from TAFB, T2.5 from SAB, and CIMSS ADT is being silly again, but rat T#'s look to be trying to settle around T3.0. The latest ATCF update shows Jerry a 45kt TS due to the increase in organization and increase in T#'s. A recent AMSUB microwave pass showed a banding feature wrapping into the well-defined center. The latest advisory info and satellite image can be found below.

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30
Location: 27.3°N 44.9°W
Moving: E at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Forecast For TS Jerry
The forecast for TS Jerry is a little more optimistic than last night, but conditions are still not ideal for significant strengthening. As mentioned earlier, shear has abated enough to allow for some organization of Jerry's structure. While there is still shear impacting the tropical cyclone, the direction of the shear is less detrimental and with the ull directly overhead of Jerry shear isn't as strong from it. Global models and SHIPS analysis continue to show shear having an impact on Jerry for the next 5 days, but becoming more detrimental later in the forecast period as the shear vector turns to the SW. Shear should remain favorable enough to allow for some slow strengthening over the next few days before Jerry interacts with a trough during days 4 and 5. Since jerry is a relatively small, fragile system, an increase in shear would be damaging to the system. Sea Surface Temperatures are looking decently favorable for additional strengthening over the next several days as Jerry meanders in the North Atlantic. As 11L beings moving NE late in the forecast period, SST's begin to get less favorable and should help with weakening the system. Dry air seems to have been an issue today with Jerry ingesting dry air into it's core. This was evident on water vapor imagery and precipitable water loops. SHIPS analysis indicated 700-500mb RH values between 30-50% and remaining in that range for the entire forecast period. This is not good for Jerry as it will be harder to get a solid inner core going and developed deep convection. I do think Jerry should be able to somewhat over come these issues, but with dry air around the system coupled with moderate wind shear I don't think significant strengthening is likely. My forecast runs in about the middle of the intensity guidance, showing slight strengthening over the next few days before weakening. The LGEM makes Jerry a minimal hurricane while the SHIPS make Jerry a strong TS, but i don't think Jerry will be able to strengthen that much. On the other hand, the Euro shows Jerry dissipating before the forecast period is up, and this needs to be watched to see whether Jerry can remain a tropical cyclone for the next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Jerry is making it's slow cyclonic loop in the middle of the Atlantic. Jerry looks to be moving E at 7kts, but should being moving more towards the west soon. This is in response to the large scale trough to the NE of Jerry slowly lifting out and ridging building to the north and west of Jerry. As this ridge deepens and expands some, Jerry should turn to the west. While Jerry will be turned toward the W and the N, it won't be moving fast as steering currents will remain rather weak until a trough enters the region. As we get into days 3, 4, and 5, a mid to upper level trough should come in and steer Jerry to the NE. Models are in pretty good agreement of Jerry getting pulled NE after its loop. Guidance has shifted to the right since last night, and my track forecast has shifted to the right in response of this. Jerry won't affect any land areas over the next 5 days regardless of intensity and is only a marine threat. My forecast graphic is a little messy in the early part of the forecast period due to the slow movement, but at least I am doing one today.

Forecast Intensity

INIT 01/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

Forecast Track


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist

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