I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 6:07 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Costa Maya, MX around 11:00pm EDT/ 03:00 UTC. Ernesto had winds of 85mph and had a pressure of 980mb. His structure at landfall was impressive and he was likely stronger than an 85mph hurricane. We may never know his true strength since recon had difficulties in Biloxi and left the runway which meant they couldn't get any readings. If Ernesto was in the N Caribbean for 6-12 more hours we may have had a major hurricane so the Yucatan is lucky. Hopefully everyone followed all warnings and there is little damage/ no loss of life. Ernesto is dumping heavy rain and wind on all of the Yucatan and it should take around 24hours to clear the Yucatan and enter the BOC. From there Ernesto should restrengthen to an 85-95mph hurricane depending on how much luster he loses over land. I think Ernesto will make landfall between Veracruz and Tampico.
Ex Florence and invest 92L are both in the E Atlantic and both have a chance at development. Her remnants have shown convection from time to time but the environment is harsh and re-development is unlikely and shouldn't affect any land with major impacts. Do not though forget her remnants as she may try to come back in a few days.
Invest 92L is looking decent and has a modest environment and could become the next TS. If this were to happen then it would be Gordon. Convection has been pretty consistent and it has a nice spin. It could take a path similar to Ernesto or a little farther north. All models running on this turn it into a TS so the Caribbean Islands need to watch this as well. The NHC and I give 92L a 30% chance of development in the next 48hours.
Finally the GFS has been very consistent with developing multiple Cape Verde storms and sending them toward the East Coast. Depending on if 92L develops or not they would be Gordon, Helene, and Isaac or Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. This year when the GFS has been consistent with something it usually happens and this scenario needs to be watched. The first wave is currently over Africa now and is already looking like a tropical system. Things could get very interesting over the next couple weeks.
I will be back with an update on Ernesto tomorrow morning/early afternoon and a full update in the next day or so. Once again I'll be gone between the 12th to the 17th and may not be able to write any update or be on the Doc's blog.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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