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February 8-9 2013 Winter Storm

By: weatherenthusiast1 , 12:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2013

6PM Update: Everyone has cut their numbers to be in line with those I issued this morning!! Expect less than 4 inches around the city, higher amounts north and east.
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Here is a quick blog about the impending storm lasting Friday- Early Saturday morning. I have don't done many updates with this storm because I have been unenthused with the threat from the beginning, especially for SE PA and points south.

You have likely seen other forecasts, which range from 2-4 in the city (NWS) to 4-7 (NBC 10). Right now, I like NWS's forecast better.

The evolution of this storm is a typical Noreaster, and like many noreasters, the phase between the two systems will happen too far north to bring down adequate cold temperatures to the area. Thus, most of the snow that will accumulate will fall during the end of the storm. A lot of pieces need to fall into place to get the 4-7 NBC calls. Here's why based on current data, they will not.

1. Temperature notably above modeled temps:

These warm temperatures will hang on and cause rain to fall over much of Philly and points south.

2. This will cause sharp gradients to set up.

Short rangem models continue to be unenthusiastic about the wrap-around moisture that would give us a majority of the total snow.

No time for a map, but hear are some points and my snowfall forecast:

Delaware: Trace- 2 inches
Philly: 2-4 inches
Montco: 2-5 inches
Bucks : 3-5 inches
Princeton: 3-6 inches
Northeast PA and Northern NJ: 5-10 inches
NYC: 6-12 inches
Southern New England: 12-24 inches +

I will provide updates after 12PM and adjust down as necessary.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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The purpose of this blog is to give the public in the Mid Atlantic region the background behind the forecasts.

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