I'm a Christian who loves weather. I have been into weather since I was 3 years old and I continue to study weather, I'm also a weather spotter
By: tornadocam, 11:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
In a few months Winter will be among us. The question is what will winter be like for the Tennessee valley? There are three scenarios that could happen. However, I think one has the highest likelihood of happening.
I think Winter for 2013-2014 is not going to be like the past two winters, which have been above normal in temperatures. I think we are going to have an average winter. I think we will see temperatures and rainfall being close to average. However, unlike the past two winters I think there will be a chance for at least 2 wintry events. The reason why I'm going with an average winter is osculation seems to support that. Osculation in Meteorology is measuring the water temps of the Pacific Ocean around the Equator; it determines if we have neutral, El-Nino, and La Nina conditions. Right now the Osculation has been hanging around 0.4 Celsius above average. Anything over 0.6 degrees Celsius above average in the Pacific Equator region indicates EL-Nino. I believe we will stay neutral to a weak EL-Nino forming. Neutral conditions for Southeast Tennessee tend to favor average temperatures. For North Georgia it tends to favor drier conditions.
Here is the average temps and precipitation for Winter months (average temps will vary depending on your elevation)
Average high is 52 degrees Fahrenheit. Average Low is 31 degrees Fahrenheit. Average rainfall is 4.8 inches typically the chance of snowfall is very low
Average high is 49 degrees Fahrenheit. Average low is 28 degrees Fahrenheit. Average rainfall is 5 inches. Average snowfall is 3 inches
Average high is 54 degrees Fahrenheit.Average low is 33 degrees Fahrenheit. Average rainfall is 4.6 inches. Average snowfall is 1.5 inches
The Second Scenario is a significant El-Nino forms. I am not confident that this will occur. El-Nino is complicated. Some El-Nino's have been wet others have been dry. El-Nino does tend to favor below average temps for SE Tennessee and North Georgia. In 2009 during a strong El-Nino temps were below average and rainfall was above average. In 1997 another strong El Nino temps were below average. In 2006 a weak El Nino brought cooler conditions but yet drier patterns. So El-Nino's for our area can be complex.
The third Scenario is La Nina forming. I do not think this will occur. If La Nina was to form our weather for winter will have extremes. La Nina typically brings snow, tornadoes, warmth and cold in our area for winter. Basically La Nina winters have everything in them. A good example would be 2011. In winter of 2011 we had everything. Winter of 2011 got started off with snowfall most areas saw 6-10 inches. Next the month of February was above average in temperatures. In addition, at the end of February a line of severe storms also brought tornadoes to the area. Another La Nina year was 2008, In 2008 we had periods of cold, warmth and severe weather. Looking back at past La Nina winters they all tend to favor wild winters. So far the Osculation has not cooled or been cooling to suggest La Nina. In order for their to be La Nina conditions temps in the Pacific Equator region would need to be at least -0.5 Celsius or greater from average.
Overall, I think Neutral conditions to a weak El-Nino conditions will occur. So, I think we will have an average winter, with equal chances of having average temperatures and precipitation. I also think we could see at least 2 wintry events. North Georgia can expect slightly drier conditions.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.