Cam's Weather

2013 Hurricane season could be like 2002

By: tornadocam, 7:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2013

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, despite having 5 named storms has been calm. The reason for this is dry air in the Atlantic has kept tropical storms from forming. The 5 storms that have formed so far have been short lived systems. The 2013 hurricane so far is starting off to be similar to 2002.

In 2002, August provided 3 tropical storms: Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly, but they were short lived. The reason being a dry air mass over the Atlantic kept storms from forming or strengthening. As the 2002 hurricane season went into September the tropics became active. The dry air mass dissipated allowing tropical waves to spin up into named storms. In fact, a total of 9 storms formed in September: Fay, Gustav, Hannah, Isidore, Josephine, Kyle and Lili. The 2002 season produced two destructive hurricanes in Isidore and Lili. Both Isidore and Lili would have their names retired the following season.

The 2013 season could end up being like 2002 were the next two months September and October really pick up in tropical activity. It is possible that the dry air mass dissipates allowing for tropical storms to form. Their are several reasons why this could happen. First of all, we are in neutral pattern. El Nino or La Nina are not present at this time. La Nina and neutral conditions usually favor an upswing in tropical activity. Second, the shearing winds, which tear tropical systems apart, should lessen allowing storms to form. Third, Fall is the peak for tropical activity.

So while things have been calm it does not always mean they will stay that way concerning tropical activity. 2002 started off slow and ended up producing 12 named storms which was slightly above average. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 10 named storms, 6 become hurricanes and 2 become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). The most active months for tropical activity are August, September, October, and sometimes November can be active with late season hurricanes.

We still have a long way to go before the hurricane season is over. Will 2013 end up being like 2002? It could very well be. The best thing to do is always be prepared.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Cam's Weather

About tornadocam

I'm a Christian who loves weather. I have been into weather since I was 3 years old and I continue to study weather, I'm also a weather spotter

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