Cam's Weather

wild winter weather

By: tornadocam, 10:31 PM GMT on December 30, 2012

Back in the fall, signs were pointing toward an El-Nino pattern forming as the water temps around the Pacific Equator were warming which indicates EL-Nino as a result I thought along with forecasters, that would impact our winter. However, as of this writing EL-Nino has not formed and the Climate Prediction Center now says there is a 90% chance that El-Nino will not form. The water temperatures as of this writing were staying average or a degree below average. So the CPC has given a 70% we stay in Neutral conditions and there is a 20% La-Nina returns and 10% El-Nino forms, each impacts weather in southeast Tennessee differently, I will skip El-Nino since it is the least likely to occur

Neutral conditions
Neutral is when El-Nino or La-Nina are not present. Looking back on historical data neutral gives us a chance of some winter events and temps tend to be close to average. The rest of the year, temps in the spring, summer and fall, tend to be slightly above normal. Rainfall tends to be close to average basically things are in a balance.

La Nina Conditions
La Nina really impacts our weather. Winters are typically mild and very wet. Spring and Fall are often more stormy while summers tend to be dry. Overall La Nina brings well above average temps, above average rainfall and more stormy conditions.

Now how does El-Nino, La-Nina and Neutral affect Tornadoes?

The bottom line is all three conditions have brought tornadoes to southeast Tennessee. The thing to remember is regardless of the pattern, if cold air collides with warm air in the atmosphere, plus wind sheer and if moisture is present than it creates favorable conditions for tornadoes. So the bottom line is regardless of the pattern if conditions are favorable tornadoes will occur.

Tornadoes have even occurred in El-Nino events here are some examples. March 1997 Easter brings tornadoes to Chattanooga, Cleveland and Polk County. November 2007 tornadoes touch down in South Pittsburgh
In 2009 which was a very strong El-Nino, April brought tornadoes to Chattanooga and Athens

Neutral has also brought tornadoes to the area. In November 2002 the Plateau outbreak occurred, this event brought tornadoes to the Plateau and southeast Tennessee.
May 2008, Tornadoes touch down in the area.
March 2nd 2012 the area is effected by an outbreak of tornadoes, this event also brought devastating tornadoes to Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana

La Nina is interesting concerning tornadoes, because it seems there might be a correlation between La-Nina patterns and tornadoes. However NOT every La-Nina event has brought tornadoes to our area but here are some examples
May 1995-tornadoes touch down all throughout Southeast Tennessee
April 16th 1998, The area has a tornado outbreak this outbreak is known as the Nashville outbreak or the Kentucky/Tennessee outbreak as tornadoes touched down in Kentucky, Middle and Eastern Tennessee

October 26th 2010, tornadoes touch down in Chattanooga, Cleveland and Monroe County

April 27th, 2011 this one needs no explanation as several tornadoes touched down in our area, this was part of the Super Outbreak of 2011


Is global warming causing disasters

By: tornadocam, 4:17 AM GMT on December 08, 2012

Turn on the news lately and you probably have heard the term Global Warming or climate change. Most climatologist believe global warming is happening.Some think climate change is a normal cycle that happens every so decades. However one of the arguments is; climate change causing more disasters. I will be honest I'm kind of skeptical on the idea. But I will not rule it out. Here is my take as I will discus some ideas.

The first being Global warming is causing more hurricanes. This debate has really been enhanced this year with Hurricane Sandy a destructive Hurricane that hit New Jersey. Also Typhoon Bopha also called Pablo that hit the Phillipines as category 5 typhoon, which is another name for a hurricane. Some scientist would say yes, but here is the thing I compared Sandy to past storms that were similar. The first being the 1938 New England Hurricane. This hurricane impacted New York and New England with over 100 mph winds. Also another similar storm was Hurricane Gloria in 1985 that also impacted the same region as Sandy. There have been other significant hurricanes to hit the North East. Carol and Edna in 1954, Donna hit the gulf coast then the North east as a category two hurricane. Hurricane Bob from 1991, Hurricane Irene from 2011. So while the Northeast does not have hurricanes like the Southeast Coast from Virginia to Texas it has happened in the past.

Also lets look at weather patterns the past few years have been La Nina or Neutral. La Nina the tropical Pacific cools but the Atlantic warms up and shearing winds, which tear tropical storms apart are relaxed. Neutral things are average both favor hurricane development, so it is no wonder the Atlantic has had several hurricanes

Lets also look at tropical Patters in the Atlantic region. The 1940's to 1960's was very active in Hurricane activity then the 1970's and 1980's hurricane activity was below average, though they still had bad storms. Ever since 1995 we have been in an active period so it appears that hurricane activity goes in cycles.

Some people say Global Warming has caused tornado outbreaks. Before climate change is blamed, lets look at how tornadoes form. In order to have a tornado their has to be cool air colliding with warm air in the atmosphere, their has to be moisture, and their has to be wind shear that provide lift for rotation. The Central Plains and Southeast are prone to Tornadoes for several reasons you have changing of air cool to hot you have moisture and you have wind shear in these two regions. Also factor in the Gulf of mexico as it has created multiple outbreaks the two big ones are April 1974 and April 2011. Looking at past Records it seems like outbreaks like this have happened in the past and they will continue. Keep in mind that tornadoes can occur in Mountain areas a good example would be Denver Colorado and Cheyenne Wyoming are tornado prone.

Global Warming is causing the ice to melt. Okay this one their might be some truth but is it man made or just a cycle. During the middle ages several decades had ice melting it was one of the Reasons the Vikings were able to get to Canada during the middle ages. England was able to grow crops that were found in Italy. However the climate changed and it became cold again ice reformed and crops retreated back to Italy. Now lets look at America it seems we have decades of warmth then cool. The 1930's had heat then the 1940's were very cold, then the 1950's were worm. Recently 1998, 1999, 2002, 2012 have been warm while 2006, 2009 and half of 2010 were cold.

Another Myth is Global warming is caused by our light bulbs, well not really lot of people have switched to CFL's Europe it is law. However the CFL bulbs have a very toxic pollutant inside of them called Mercury that is linked to cancer and brain damage. Not to mention these bulbs are often troubling for Autistic people as the way the flicker they cause headaches. for people who want to help the environment buy long life bulbs if you break one you do not have to worry about Mercury soft white are good ones to get

Pollution is changing the environment yes it is we do know Pollution has caused severe effects such as contaminating rivers etc. Pollution needs to be reduced

Okay so is Global warming man made. At this time I'm still skeptical However I think time will tell if we do not see cooling then I would change as I'm open minded. But remember cycles can last for decade. However I do think if we reduce pollution without getting rid of industry then if global warming is man made reducing pollution will take care of itself. I'm all for protecting the Environment as I'm a Christian and I believe it is our duty to take care of the Earth as God created it and we are supposed to manage and take care of it

Rather people believe in Global warming I think most people would agree on protecting Forest, animals and reducing pollution


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Cam's Weather

About tornadocam

I'm a Christian who loves weather. I have been into weather since I was 3 years old and I continue to study weather, I'm also a weather spotter