Irene takes aim on *Northeast*

By: sullivanweather , 3:06 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

Your Northeast Forecast

Synopsis


All eyes are on Irene this morning as it churns over the Bahamas as a category three major hurricane. This storm has the Northeast in its crosshairs this weekend, promising to bring flooding rainfall, damaging winds and high storm surges along the coast. Before Irene's arrival there will be a couple of systems to deal with; the first today in the form of a fairly decent cold front bringing the chance for isolated severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall and the next on Saturday as another possible area of heavy rainfall indirectly associated with Irene moves up along the coastal plain. As Irene chugs into Canada early Monday morning a much cooler and drier airmass will filter in and last till Wednesday, giving the region a chance to clean up and dry out.


Short-term forecast


A sharp trough and its associated cold front will slide across the Northeast today, shearing out in the process as it meets up against a strong offshore deep-layer ridge of high pressure. This is the same ridge responsible for steering Hurricane Irene towards the East Coast. Out ahead of this front deep moisture is streaming northward on a brisk 30-35kt low-level jet, pumping precipitable water values around the 2" range, so it's a rather humid start to the day for much of the region. Also streaming northward ahead of the front along a pre-frontal trough is an area of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through central Pennsylvania and New York. Rainfall with these storms have been heavy this morning, with some places picking up over an inch of rain. This area of precipitation will gradually shift eastward as the day progresses, reaching eastern New York and Western New England around lunchtime and slowing considerably thereafter. Visible satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover over much of the region save the immediate coast, so insolation will not be too big a role in heating things up in this humid airmass. This should limit the severe weather threat but it will still be present. Instability should easily reach 1,000J/kg along the coastal plain, yielding plenty of energy for convection. As the pre-frontal trough moves towards the coast expect a new round of storms to fire up this afternoon from southeastern Pennsylvania to southern New England while further west along the actual cold front, more scattered convection and maybe a forced narrow line of storms will continue to fire until it passes by So another round may be in store for areas of central Pennsylvania to the Finger Lakes region. Further to the north over central/northern New England cloud cover will keep surface instability low but it will be made of aloft as a strong push of positive vorticity moves trough associated with the mid-level disturbance, providing the extra lift needed for scattered showers and thunderstorms here as well. The front will have a bit more progression the further north one heads so rainfall won't be nearly as heavy across the North Country. However, along the coast as the flow aloft aligns to the front expect this feature to slow down and stall, providing an ideal set-up for training thunderstorms and flash flooding given the wet antecedent conditions. Rainfall amounts should range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch to the north with a half into to an inch and a half to the south with possibly higher amounts in training thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 70's for most areas today, though some upper 60's are possible given the quicker onset of thicker clouds over the higher elevations of the North Country while sections of extreme southern New Jersey, where some breaks of sun occurred this morning, temperatures might climb into the low 80's. It will be quite muggy in all areas except for the far northwestern portion of the region where the cold front has passed.

The front reaches just offshore and stalls out tonight as showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening hours. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a slow drying of the airmass across the northern third of the region. To the south it will remain muggy with low temperatures in the mid 60's to low 70's. To the north, mid 50's to low 60's should do.

On Friday the humidity begins to creep back north as the front along the coast washes out. There will be more sun than clouds, especially over the interior, but overall a very nice day. There's an outside chance for an isolated shower across southern New Jersey where moisture will be a bit deeper but that's it. A great day to make preparations for the arrival of Irene this weekend. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70's across the north with low to mid 80's south.

It's the calm before the storm Friday night as Irene will be approaching the Outer Banks of North Carolina at this time from the south. Over the Northeast, 500-700 miles north of the storm, signs are there may be a predecessor rainfall event developing over New Jersey, southeastern New York and southwestern Connecticut. Should this occur there will be some very intense rainfall associated with very slow-moving thunderstorms which may cause localized flash flooding concerns. Elsewhere expect mainly partly cloudy skies and temperatures on the mild side, running 5-10 degrees above normal.



Mid-term forecast


As the weekend begins there will be a steady deterioration of the weather from south to north in most areas east of the I-81 corridor. For those west of this region the forecast is fairly straight forward. Expect a veil of high cloudiness to move over the region on Saturday, sticking around all weekend. In the far west these high clouds will be thin, allowing for a greater diurnal swing in temperatures from the upper 70's during the day to the mid 50's at night. The clouds will thicken the further east one heads, knocking a few degrees off daytime high and keeping overnight lows a few degrees warmer. Cloud cover will begin to diminish Sunday night as a dry, brisk westerly breeze develops in the wake of Irene.

For areas along and east of I-81 it will be a harrowing weekend. Pre-event will be ongoing during the early morning hours on Saturday for areas along the coastal plain up to Connecticut. Rainfall associated with the pre-event will generally range from a quarter to a half inch but localized areas which see training storms could easily pick up three inches or more. Keep in mind this will be the one last day to complete preparations for Irene. High clouds will be on the increase throughout the day, lowering and thickening across areas to the south by the afternoon. Cape May, County, New Jersey may even begin to see the first outer bands of Irene move in before dusk. Winds will begin to increase out of the east, beginning the day in the 10-15mph range along the coast (5-10 inland) and increasing to 15-25mph along the coast by evening (10-15 inland).

By Saturday night Irene will be starting to make her presence felt as the outer rainbands begin to spread over the coastal plain of New Jersey and back across southeastern Pennsylvania during the evening hours. By this time Irene should be passing the mouth of the Chesapeake, pounding the Tidewater region with hurricane conditions. Irene will also begin to accelerate north at this time as she becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow. This will allow for a quicker northward expansion of precipitation after midnight, reaching Long Island, extreme southern New England, southeast New York and eastern Pennsylvania before daybreak. Further north expect just a continuation of increasing cloudiness ahead of Irene. Temperatures will be quite warm as the tropical airmass moves over the region with most places across the interior remaining in the mid 60's while areas along the coast remain in the low 70's.

Sunday will be a day many youngsters will one day tell their grandkids about. Hurricane Irene will begin the day about 25 miles off the coast of Chincoteague, Virginia, heading just east of due north for western Long Island. The model guidance for Irene's track has come into much better agreement with clustering over the western portion of Long Island as the storm gets captured by a strong southerly flow between a very powerful deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and a digging shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. On this track Irene promises to bring hurricane conditions for a huge section of real estate as the storm hugs the Jersey shore then slams ashore Long Island by the evening hours. Irene's impact will be felt far and wide and will be detailed here and in the tropical section of the blog. Temperatures will remain in the 70's for most areas with upper 60's over the higher terrain.

Irene's impacts



Wind




Due to Irene's expected girth as the storm moves north along the coast it is unimportant to pay attention to where the center comes ashore in this situation as her effects will be felt far and wide. Irene will have a strong massive wind field that will bring hurricane force wind speeds for most of the coastline from Cape May to Cape Cod. For inland locations, hurricane force winds will be felt in areas up to 40 miles east of the center and 25 miles west of the center until the storm spins down to a tropical storm up to 150 miles inland over New England. Additionally, just about all of New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania will see at least tropical storm force winds sustained or in gusts, depending on how far one is from the center. The stronger winds will be felt on the east semi-circle of the storm. Higher elevations over 2000' will also see hurricane force wind gusts due to the circulation remaining strong aloft. Highly populated cities susceptible to seeing hurricane force winds include New York City (especially the boroughs of Queens and Brooklyn);Atlantic City, New Jersey; Hartford, Connecticut; Springfield, Massachusetts and Providence, Rhode Island. Once again, due to Irene's large and well-developed circulation the potential wind impact from Irene will be maximized. Unlike smaller, less-developed tropical systems where the wind field is sporadic and concentrated to localized areas, Irene's will be much more widespread and take much longer to dissipate. This means bad news for areas across the interior as much of this area has been in a wet pattern this month, leaving soils saturated and trees vulnerable to be toppled by the wind.



Rainfall



Despite how severe of a wind event Irene will bring to the coast, perhaps the biggest impact from Irene will be the excessive rainfall and inland flooding. As mentioned, the antecedent conditions are extremely wet. Some areas are already approaching their record wettest August and these includes stations around since 1955, when two tropical systems affected the Northeast. The frontal system will bring up to an inch of rainfall today and the pre-event has the potential to bring much more all before the arrival of Irene. Irene will be non-typical of a Northeast hurricane caught in the mid-latitude flow as it won't be zooming through the region as most of these storms do. Instead it will make a steady progression through the Northeast around 15-20 mph; fairly quickly, but relative to a Northeast hurricane, a graceful stroll. Thus, Irene will be capable of producing extremely heavy rainfall amounts.

Now that it appears Irene will track just east of due north after passing the Carolinas, the hurricane will take a more western track than anticipated yesterday. This will expand the rain coverage much further west than anticipated yesterday. As the storm interacts with land much of the convergence will occur on the west side of the hurricane due to the frictional component of the land as opposed to the eastern side of the storm, which will be over the water. This increasing angular momentum within the storm will cause Irene to become lopsided, with most of the heaviest rainfall occurring on the western semi-circle of the storm. Not an odd occurrence but certainly bad news for the Northeast as it spreads out Irene's wrath, with flooding rainfall west and stronger winds east. Rainfall amounts will range from 6-10"+ for areas up to 100 miles west of the track of the center with amounts quickly tapering west of there. Along the track of Irene and for areas up to 25 miles east of the track of the center 4-8" of rainfall will be common. For the remainder of New England rainfall amounts should range from 2.5-5". In all areas these amounts are enough to bring just about every waterway out of their banks; creeks, streams and main stem rivers. Should there be excessive rainfall with the pre-event prior to Irene flooding of historic proportions are possible across areas of northern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and Connecticut.



Storm Surge



While it is too early for specific area storm surge forecasts due to track of Irene, timing of high tide, etc., a general picture is emerging for what we can expect to see from Irene's storm surge. For areas where the center comes ashore and up to 50 miles east expect a storm surge of at least 6-10' above expected tides. Some of the narrow bays may even see tides up to 15' above expected tides, which would be of historic proportions. Should a landfall occur on Long Island even areas east of the maximum zone of storm surge as far east as Cape Cod will see storm surges of 4-8' above expected tides. Areas further up the New England Coast should see a 2-4' storm surge. Along the New Jersey Coast storm surge of 3-5' is expected but should the storm take an inland track (a slight possibility) this could easily be doubled. It must be repeated that these are extremely preliminary estimates, however, residents along the South Shore of Long Island should seriously consider evacuations now as they are right in the bullseye.


Long-range Outlook



After the passage of Irene much cooler air will enter the Northeast as a mainly dry trough digs into the region. Across the North Country, Irene, undergoing extra-tropical transition, will provide lingering heavy rainfall in the morning, tapering to upslope showers by afternoon. Elsewhere skies will gradually clear and winds will be brisk out of the northwest. High's will range from the 50's across the north to the 70's south. Seasonable weather continues Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry weather. Heights build to close out the week as temperatures climb back above normal with continued mainly dry conditions.

-------

Tropical Update


Coming soon...



IR Satellite image of Hurricane Irene.






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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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zotty ~

Sooo glad to hear you came through Irene okay, with minimal inconvenience!

I, too, would like to understand what happened with this storm that made it so unusual.

Even moreso, I am eager to hear what you mean by "more northerly." Do you mean it will track less to the west? Would that make it a fish storm after all or are we talking about New England really taking it on the chin this time? I don't think Vermont could recover from another such blow so soon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I got my power back and wow, it is crazy what happened around my area. There are house parts and all the things that where inside all along the river from my friends in Jamaica who lost everything. The rivers have changed their courses, it's unreal. Everyone I know of is safe but one more friends house, we don't know about and you can't get there. I found out today one can drive from Bratt to Stratton Mountain but beyond that, who knows. I just can't believe the devastation to all the bridges. Unreal....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. zotty
well Sully, I don't know if the 250 jet stream (or whatever) was what powered the transfer of energy from the core of Irene to the inland areas of NY & NE, but something allowed the center of the storm soften the storm surge, which spared those of us on the Western LI Sound to escape with minor flooding as opposed to a true disaster.

In New Rochelle NY, in southwestern Westchester County just north of the Bronx, I lost power for a few hours- 6pm to 10pm, and a branch fell from a tree crossing the high(er) voltage lines to explode in front of my house. There were countless tree and branches down both as the storm came ashore and after the rain stopped in the late afternoon as the wind seemed stronger where I was in late afternoon, after the core had passed, compared the morning as the worst rains moved through.

Good luck to all those without power, flooded basements, and especially in upstate NY and VT where the flash floods seem terrible. I guess we may have to watch Katia as she forms in the Atlantic as well, as she is forecasted to take a similar though more northerly path than Irene.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sully, I can't imagine how you're going to make your rounds tonight if the roads are as bad there as here. It's a good thing we know you are aware and cautious!

Check in once you're back and have rested, and tell us all about it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
partylight, you said it earlier, but I didn't really take it in until my niece in MA sent me all the following links.

My dear blog friends, pray for Vermont, for we have devastation. This is the worst I have seen since moving here 30 years ago. As witness:


The covered bridge at Simon Pearce in Quechee is a loss...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2oDT_fV6Vs&featur e=share

Another covered bridge is lost at Lower Bartonsville
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=209550806538 9

Ottauquechee Iron Bridge, Route 12
https://fbcdn-photos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-as h4/320629_2274766315827_1448770809_32531823_694545 9_s.jpg

Route 100, south of Pittsfield
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQaCDlRUywU&sns=fb

A collection of other places around Vermont
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1015029 8208962726.362855.662297725
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Winds have kicked in here in the Hudson Valley - just as Sully had predicted. They are gusty and intermittent so at least not a sustained roar but they still get going pretty good at times.

I knew we were being lulled into complacency by the almost strange lack of winds during the rain portion of the "main event".

Definitely a bummer because I would have much rather had the winds during the day - makes it a bit scarier with stuff blowing all over and big trees you don't know the condition of swaying all too close to the house at night.

Good news is that the dam for the pond was not breached - I think a couple more hours of the heavier rain would have been a real problem for the pond / dam.

Power hasn't gone out - did flicker a few times but nothing that lasted.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
My town is at:
44^29'21"N, 72^57'38"W

Tropical Storm Irene's center is at:
44^1'N, 72^1'W
So, the center was about 50 miles from me at 8pm, which probably explains why the winds picked up.

Am I correct that Irene spent the day centered in Vermont rather than crossing into NH? That's how it looks at http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic ~ it appears that Irene intends to remain in Vermont right up to the furthest NE corner of the state, then will cross briefly through the higher area of NH and on into Canada, never having actually "visited" Maine. Who knew?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
*** Update from OriginalLT ***

I just got a call from LT and he says they've come through okay, except for being without power, and says hallo to all.

Connecticut currently has 700,000 without power, so it may be awhile.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting partylight:
Wow, I'm trapped. Most of the bridges in southern Vermont have been washed away. All of my friends are ok but a lot of them lost their homes. I now for who knows how long have know way to get to work and to rebuild the bridges this is bad. Got no power at my house so, yep...


Oh no! That's terrible!!
Are you posting via iPhone?

At least our Governor is from So. VT, so you'll be taken care of. He's been saying all day they're going to be on top of things. Hope so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow, I'm trapped. Most of the bridges in southern Vermont have been washed away. All of my friends are ok but a lot of them lost their homes. I now for who knows how long have know way to get to work and to rebuild the bridges this is bad. Got no power at my house so, yep...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Lights flickering a lot.
The wind has quite picked up again.
Hmmm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LettyS:
Here in Warwick the flooding and damage are tremendous. Roads are completely washed away, bridges gone, trees down - the village is under a couple of feet of water in some places.



{{ Letty! }}}

Argh! Not good!

Forgive me for not recalling, but are you in Warwick NY, or Warwick RI?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Interstate 89, northbound, about a half hour from me:



Vermont has also (likely) had at least one Irene-related death.

Whoa! That's NOT the photo I first put there! (I guess the site is moving things around.) Mine was just a photo of a badly cracked roadway! I believe this photo is from Ludlow, which was hard hit. VT's count is now up to 4 confirmed dead and one missing and presumed dead.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Here in Warwick the flooding and damage are tremendous. Roads are completely washed away, bridges gone, trees down - the village is under a couple of feet of water in some places.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Shovlr! While I'm so glad you're all okay, I'm really sad to hear about your parents' house! We all work so hard for the dwellings we create and to see it compromised, especially in this economy, is very hard.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
So sorry to hear! :-(
Quoting TheShovler3:
10.5" of rain!!!! I made out ok parents house is flooded with over a foot. Roads are completely washed out and undermined rain lifted around 1 wind is picking up but looks like that's not really the bad part!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
libertygirl ~

News reports from last evening indicated that President Obama is eager not to leave people feeling the way they did after Katrina. So hopefully the agencies involved will get a swift go-ahead to begin helping.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks for sharing. Stay safe, going to check out "what's brewing". Hoping everyone is safe.
Quoting listenerVT:
Nantucket cam:

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10.5" of rain!!!! I made out ok parents house is flooded with over a foot. Roads are completely washed out and undermined rain lifted around 1 wind is picking up but looks like that's not really the bad part!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nantucket cam:

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Yeah, ListenerVT, disaster relief is going to become quite the issue, with the state of the economy, none of this is looking to good. Here's the link to whats happening in the region of the Hudson Valley - best I can find with updates/info. My heart goes out to everyone up there..

http://www.recordonline.com/

On a more personal note, my mother just came in and told me there's another system brewing out there...as we are coming into Sept..."ugh"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I hope partylight is faring okay this afternoon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
libertygirl ~

Since Sully works at night, I imagine he's catching some zzzz's this afternoon. His earlier post spoke of some damage he'd seen overnight and that he lost power for about an hour. I'm hopeful that' the worst he'll see at his house, and I wonder what he'll encounter as he makes the rounds tonight! It sure isn't easy getting around right now in the Catskills. I hope they get news of disaster relief soon.

BTW, your link to the Herald didn't quite work, but I was able to click there on "News" and saw the photos of the destruction in the Catskills. We too are worried about trees uprooting. :-(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
kaaterskillfalls ~

Glad to hear you've come through okay.
Sounds like we've had less rain but more wind than you.

Please keep us posted on your dam!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I hope Sully is doing okay. Reading the Times Herald Record reports all over the region...major flooding, record flooding, in fact. To say that "it's not as bad as it could have been" really urk's my chain. The people there are going to go thru some major recovery...but they have to get through it first and there are reports of some villages that are completely "shut out"...no way in or out. :-( It always amazes me how people are left to fell disappointed that they didn't get what they thought they were going to get. Be glad and pray for the rest...who did.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Bayview...

I'm with you: Sully did GREAT!

So glad you got your power back!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks, libertygirl ~ The flooding is still happening, as the rains in the mountains flow down to the valleys. It's heartbreaking to see, as we in NW VT know from all the flooding here this past year. There are also always people who act heroically and help one another. I'm hoping Sullivan/Ulster can recover.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Link
Evacuation orders for Livingston Manor/Roscoe
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Here's a link to the Times Herald Record:
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article ?AID=/20110828/NEWS/110829801
List too long to post on this thread...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Checking in from Rhinebeck in Dutchess County

Things are brightening up considerably and friends to the west in Kingston report peeks of blue sky.

Looks as though we got about 8 - 10" rain.

General observations:

Rain was steady and long lasting but never really had much of a tropical feel to it. Only very occassionally seemed to be wind driven or coming in as sheets of rain. Heavy but gentle in a weird kind of way. The total amount has definitely added up and is threatening to breach the earthen dam for our pond - the main outfall channel is nearly at its discharge capacity and I can see where the water wants to start "finding" a secondary pathway. Not good.

Winds have been virtually non-existant, particularly anything sustained. We have a few branches, leaves, and walnuts down from some gusts and swirls but I doubt we ever even reached 15 mph sustained here. Honestly much more threatening winds occurred thru the leafless trees here on almost a weekly basis during last winter.

Happy to hear that there wasn't too much widespread damage or anything really catastrophic but from purely a selfish perspective in that I wanted to see what it was like in a full fledged (but not too dangerous) tropical system that wasn't just some remnant left over from down south this thing was a huge disappointment.

p.s. as I finish typing the sun is peeking out
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi ListenerVT, I hope you fare well through this. Reading TheShoveler3 comment>9" of rain. :-/ I hope you are okay.

Record flooding being reported in the Sullivan/Uslter region. Just read the MidHudson News and listened to Ulster County Exec.Michael Hein state "that this was some of the largest flooding we have ever seen." Sullivan County and Ulster County are under State of Emergency. Trying to search for reports up there. The Walkill River is reporting "record flooding" forecast. Round Creek exceeded flood stage and is expected to rise and crest at 8 - 10 feet.
Town of Calicoon is flooding and evacuations are being urged.
The list goes on and on - here's the link:http://midhudsonnews.com/News/2011/August/28/ Irene_flood%20warning-28Aug11.htm

May not be as bad as it could've been...but it sure is not good. :-(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hi all..here is some articles and maps of where Irene landed.
http://www.trails.com/topo.aspx?lat=39.49822&lon= -74.31739&s=50&size=s&style=drgsr
Good to search the area of AC and Beach Haven NJ where NHC said she landed in NJ. And this article....http://news.yahoo.com/slower-still-powe rful-irene-hits-land-nj-103351113.html
Lost power for about 12 hours so I have to play catchup for a bit. Be back with more NJ info.btw--it's blowing again..30's and 40+mph and a bit more rain. Not all over yet, as you said to expect Sully, and again thank you for your excellent meteorological info and reporting. Helped us make some decisions much more confidently. You da man...!!! :>)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This radar shows the last 12 hours...

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm sure not liking seeing large chunks of leaves coming down everywhere in my yard. I'm especially not liking seeing my immediate neighbour's 40ft deciduous tree waving rather close to my roof.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

... High Wind Warning remains in effect until 8 am EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the High
Wind Warning... until 8 am EDT Monday.

* Locations... Vermont and the eastern slopes of the northern
Adirondacks of New York.

* Hazards... strong and damaging winds.

* Winds... north 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph.

* Timing... strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue
through tonight.

* Impacts... significant tree... power line... and property damage
will occur. Expect power outages and travel will also be very
difficult.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous weather situation! Strong winds will impact
the area and cause damage and power outages. Prepare for adverse
weather conditions and follow weather information from the
National Weather Service in Burlington Vermont.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It sure is getting windy here now! Our lights keep flickering in a weird way ~ rapid fire flickers instead of the usual slow blinks. The rain is still from the northeast side.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Our lights flickered with that last wind gust.

Hmmm...wonder what the afternoon will be like.

Yeah, we're getting stronger gusts now. 40-50kts?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting libertygirl:
I hope everyone up there is doing okay. I am paying attention to Sullivan County. I love it there and miss living there very, very much. So sorry to here of this flooding. Be safe...take care. Will check in later...



Thanks for those updates, LibertyGirl, and for the good wishes!

So far here it's just a strange, very rainy day. But I know we haven't had the real wind yet.

Son*in*VT and his family opted NOT to go to a wedding in NH today. (It's at 2:30pm near Manchester.) Son*in*ME and his family ARE going to the wedding.

LIGHTS JUST FLICKERED.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I hope everyone up there is doing okay. I am paying attention to Sullivan County. I love it there and miss living there very, very much. So sorry to here of this flooding. Be safe...take care. Will check in later...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is what it is nothing more nothing less
be happy it was not as bad as it could of been
or it would of been a lot worse


That says it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
:-(
1105 am EDT sun Aug 28 2011

The Flood Warning continues for
the Beaver kill near Cooks Falls.
* Until late Monday night... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:00 am Sunday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 15.7 feet by this
evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact... at 16 feet... water starts spreading across Cooks Falls Road
in the Village of Cooks Falls.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1052 am EDT sun Aug 28 2011

The National Weather Service in Binghamton New York has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Delaware River at Callicoon.
* From this evening to Monday evening... or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 10:30 am Sunday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... rise above flood stage early tonight and continue to rise
to near 13.2 feet by after midnight Monday. The river will fall
below flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact... at 13.0 feet... bank parking lot on New York side begins to
flood

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I feel sorry for the Neversink community. :-(
The National Weather Service in Binghamton New York has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Neversink river at Godeffroy.
* Until Monday evening... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 am Sunday the stage was 10.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 11.6 feet this
evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact... at 11.5 feet... homes begin to flood on their first floor
level along shore drive begin to flood. Streamside Cabins at
American family campground begin to flood. Homes along Rivers Edge
Road threatened.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1105 am EDT sun Aug 28 2011

The Flood Warning continues for
the Neversink river above Bridgeville.
* At 10:30 am Sunday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 17.3 feet by this
evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow early
afternoon.
* Impact... at 17 feet... moderate flooding begins. One to two feet of
water on the first floor of the Holiday mountain ski and fun park
Chalet. The homes and businesses on Holiday Mountain Road are surrounded
by water. Edwards Road is under water. Water reaches the steps of the
gage house.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
629 am EDT sun Aug 28 2011

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flood Warning for small streams in...
northeastern Sullivan County...

* until 1230 PM EDT...

* at 625 am EDT the roundout creek at Lowes corners has exceeded the
flood stage of 6.5 feet. The roundout creek will continue to rise
and crest between 8 and 10 feet by mid to late morning before
receding.

Other small streams and creeks are expected to spill their banks
this morning as heavy rains from Hurricane Irene continue to pound
the Catskills region. Expect the rains to taper down by early
afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Most flooding deaths occur in automobiles. Turn around dont
drown!


Lat... Lon 4184 7448 4177 7455 4185 7471 4194 7458
4189 7447 4187 7445
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
****24 hour rainfall******
Location 24 hour time/date comments rainfall of/inches/ measurement

New York
... Sullivan County...
6 S Woodridge 5.15 700 am 8/28 cocorahs
3 SW Rock Hill 4.95 804 am 8/28 co-op observer
:-/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
08/28/2011 1200 PM

Claryville, Sullivan County.
Flash flood, reported by public.

Rt 19 covered with water. Numerous mud slides. Many
residents report this is historic flooding.

08/28/2011 1117 am
Grahamsville, Sullivan County.
Flash flood, reported by public.

Water in buildings
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
it is what it is nothing more nothing less
be happy it was not as bad as it could of been
or it would of been a lot worse
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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