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Lake effect snows today, another storm this weekend

By: sullivanweather , 4:16 PM GMT on January 08, 2009

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 1/8/09 @11:15am



Lake effect snows will plague the snowbelts today while scattered snow showers will extend over the remainder of the region as the upper trough pulls through. Transient shortwave ridge will make its way through the Northeast on Friday, ending most, if not all, of the lake effect snow but this respite will be short-lived as a potent clipper-hybrid system moves into the region this weekend. This system has the potential to drop warning criteria snowfall for a good chunk of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southern New York and southern New England. Seasonably cold air will be left in its wake ahead of another clipper for early next week, behind which the floodgates to the arctic swing open delivering the coldest airmass of the season.


Short-term - Issued 1/8/09 @11:15am


Deep moisture, cyclonic flow, upper support from a H5 trough and a lingering surface trough axis hanging back from yesterday’s winter storm will keep a general area of snow showers draped across the Northeast today. Heavier snow will fall in upslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom and downwind of the Great Lakes. DeltaT’s are running between 20-22°C over the lakes with –18°C 850mb temps filtering in overhead. Flow is well aligned but will oscillate between 280-305° throughout the day; starting around 280° and gradually dropping to 305° this afternoon. Inversions are running above 800mb, so a deep mixed layer should promote heavy snowfall rates within the bands, approaching 2”/hr. By this evening, as high pressure builds in, inversions will begin to lower and the bands will once again shift towards the north as the flow returns to a 290-280° trajectory. Shear will increase and inversions will lower, spreading out the bands and lessening the intensity. Favored areas across western New York and around the Tug Hill Plateau will pick up anywhere from 6-12 inches of snowfall. Immediately outside of these regions, and across upslope areas of the west facing slopes of the Adirondacks, Allegheny Front, Green and White Mountains, accumulations will run from 3 to 6 inches. Elsewhere across the region any accumulations will be minimal, ranging from 2-3 inches across the eastern Mohawk Valley to under an inch as one heads away from the main bands. Along the coastal plains snow showers and flurries will be few and far between with partly cloudy skies. It will be quite blustery today in the cold air advection regime. Winds will be out of the west-northwest around 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph, especially across New England. This may cause some scattered power outages as ice from yesterday’s storm still hangs on tree limbs and branches. Temperatures today will rise little and likely fall during the afternoon, following an atypical diurnal trend given the strong cold air advection. Highs will range from the low to mid 30’s along the coastal plain with 20’s across much of the interior. The higher terrain of northern New York and New England is likely to see temperatures in the teens.

As mentioned above, the lake effect will settle down tonight as high pressure noses into the region. Away from the lakes/mountains, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear and winds will die down. Lows will range from the low to mid 20’s along the coast with teens across the interior and single digits across the higher terrain. Wind chills will also drop into the teens along the coast to below zero across the far north.

Weak surface ridge axis moves through the Northeast on Friday, likely ending the lake effect by early afternoon, despite models ending it earlier. Usually the models are too quick, by about 6 hours, to taper off the lake bands. Any additional accumulations will be light and confined to the immediate lakeshores to 50 miles downwind. Otherwise expect gradually increasing high clouds during the afternoon as the next system approaches from the west. High will be seasonably cold with temperatures along the coast in the low to mid 30s. The interior will see highs in the 20’s with teens in the higher elevations.

Clouds continue to increase Friday night, lowering and thickening as the night progresses. By midnight, snow showers will begin to filter into western New York and Pennsylvania as isentropic lift increases. Initially the atmosphere is very dry so it may take some time for the snow to make it down to the surface but eventually the column will moisten allowing for snow to break out. Any snow that does manage to make it to the surface will be light in the early stages of this storm so anywhere from a dusting to an inch should fall west of the Allegheny Front before daybreak. Towards the east skies will gradually become cloudy but enough time will be spent under clear skies and light winds for ideal radiational cooling conditions to be met. Lows will range from the single digits across the north (maybe slightly below zero in the higher terrain and northern Maine), to the teens elsewhere across the interior. Along the coastal plain lows will fall into the low to mid 20’s.


Mid-term - Issued 1/8/09 @11:15am

Preliminary Snowmap*



*subject to change



For being a 5th/6th period event, the ‘clipper-hybrid’ low on tap for Saturday still has many issues to be resolved in the models and uncertainty regarding track, timing, temp profiles, QPF remain high. For now, a 00Z ECMWF/GGEM blend weighted towards the ECMWF appears to be the way to go, given the track record of both models in the mid-term of recent times. This blend would take low pressure on a track across the Mason-Dixon line, spreading snow across much of the southern half of the region during the day on Saturday, perhaps mixing with sleet/rain south of the PA turnpike/I-95 corridor. Won’t get into details at this early stage given the uncertainty that remains but the potential exists for high-end advisory/low-end warning criteria snow north of I-70 to NYS-17/I-86 on eastwards to southern New England. Snow will end from west to east Saturday night (Pennsylvania) to Sunday morning (New England) with lake effect in the cold air advection behind the system.


Long-term - Issued - 1/8/09 @11:15am



In the long term, the northern stream will dominate, sending another clipper towards the Northeast by Monday night, then another stronger clipper towards the region on Wednesday. This second clipper in the long term will carry with it a strong arctic front that will bring some ridiculous cold into the Northeast. 850mb temps drop in the –22°C to –28°C range with 1000-500mb thickness values plunging to sub490dm. Break out the parkas!!



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


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2008-09 Winter Forecast


All hits.
hit-counter-download.com .

Unique hits.
hit-counter-download.com .

Snow shadow (sullivanweather)
OO-FO shaped cumulus cloud casting a shadow on the snow in the air
Snow shadow
Hanging on (sullivanweather)
Ice is still hanging on all the trees from the ice storm on the 7th. Temperature is around 22°F so the sun isn't helping much.
Hanging on

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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363. PhillyBurbsTrevosePa
1:05 PM GMT on January 10, 2009
Langhorne, PA Current Conditions:

8:00 AM, 24.9 F, Light Snow, Vis 2.5 Mi.

Light snow began at 6:30 Am. There's a coating of snow on all surfaces, still less than 1/4".

Forecast Snow totals for this area have been dropping since yesterday morning. Was looking like a 4" - 8" type as of Thursday night with all snow possible. 2" - 4" was forecast as of last night with changeover. As of now, expecting to see 1" - 3", with a changeover to sleet + frz rain late this afternoon or early evening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
362. sullivanweather
12:23 PM GMT on January 10, 2009
Good morning, folks!

I'll be working on a brief blog entry this morning. Looks like the ECMWF is the winner again.

Everything has shifted north about 50 miles from the last model suite I saw (18Z), coming in line with the highly accurate ECMWF. I don't plan on writing out a long or particularly in-depth blog as this system has been well discussed in previous entries and since it's already 7 in the morning I want to get this out in a timely manner and include an updated snowmap to hilight the northward shifted positions of precipitation amounts and types.
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361. cchamp6
12:22 PM GMT on January 10, 2009
Morning low temp of 4 degrees here.
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360. listenerVT
6:37 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
I'm off for a long winter's nap.
Sweet dreams, all. ♥

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359. listenerVT
6:34 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Wow, Shovler, rolling the ankle really does hurt.
Been there, done that.
Twice actually.

I still go snowshoeing, but I have to wrap it first.
Got a little exercise I do on the stairs,
sort of rising up on tiptoe on the edge of the stair.
Really helps, as you say, when I remember to do it...!

I hope it heals up nicely.
I know they seldom want to heal as quickly as we need them to!

Careful on the slipsy places this weekend! :~)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
358. TheShovler3
6:14 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
night dean
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357. upweatherdog
6:12 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Enjoy your snow!
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356. TheDawnAwakening
6:11 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Same here. I tried out in my Freshman year and didn't make it, so I didn't try out again which is something i regret to this day, but there is no turning back now.
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355. TheDawnAwakening
6:09 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Wow I could not show enough discipline to stay in shape and work hard enough for some reason, but I have passion, but it hasn't manifested itself in any work ethic I can look at. I'm going to sleep, good night Shoveler. Here's to a southern track of the storm, and none of this northern track stuff.
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354. TheShovler3
6:08 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
I feel when i turned 19 i got that ultra competitive instinct that i wish i had in HS.
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353. TheShovler3
6:07 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
I developed a jumpshot the hard way i shot 400 shots a day for an entire summer. Once its developed its easy to maintain. Takes awhile to shake the rust but you never forget the rhythm it takes to drain the shot.

I went to IMG Sports academy(they do all sports in one complex) the summer of 10th grade for 2 weeks in florida. Best thing i ever did i came back in shape, strong and with a real nice jump shot! Training was awesome. I was gonna stay down there an play basketball but i couldn't leave my friends up here.
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352. TheDawnAwakening
6:02 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
19
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351. TheShovler3
6:01 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
how old are you dean?
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350. TheDawnAwakening
5:59 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Wow that stinks. Man I wish I was 6'3. My brother is 6'2 to 6'4 somewhere in there. I'm all of 5'9. I think I have a good shooting mechanics but consistency in it is not there and I don't have a real drive of getting into shape, maybe someday I think I will. Hopefully its not too late.
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349. TheShovler3
5:57 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
the forecast discussion? try binghamton
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348. drj10526
5:56 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
albany updated it at 12:39 but it says the same exact thing. no real new thoughts. Is there a better station to read than albany?
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347. TheShovler3
5:56 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
They get really competitive its basically like a summer league. Guys get into it in all the sports because theres tons of good players that probably had the same realizations i did.

One of my good friends played for URI and plays in europe now i was surprised that he didn't get drafted in the NBA but his College team closed out the year poorly last year and that hurt his draft stock.
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346. TheDawnAwakening
5:53 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
How were those intra mural sports or games?
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345. TheShovler3
5:51 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
I'm done with College now... I love ball more then most things in life. I tried out for a couple colleges mostly Division 2 Schools but i kinda realized i wasn't gonna go anywhere after college in basketball, i was good but so were a lot of people. I found it was in my best interest to concentrate on school and my work and just play intra-murals basketball at school. I kinda regret it but it was probably for the best.
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344. TheShovler3
5:46 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
i still can't tell you why albany hasn't issued warnings...baffles me.
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343. TheDawnAwakening
5:46 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Wow pretty dedicated, any thoughts of college ball?
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342. TheShovler3
5:44 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Dean basketball is my life hands down. Ever since i was 11 and picked up a basketball i found my home haha. I'm 6'3-6'4". Never caught that last growth spurt the doctor said i'd have. I've played basketball in every state on the eastern seaboard, ireland, Texas. I played CYO, HS, AAU, Travel ball, pick up ball, mens league ball.

If someone needs a guy to play i'm there hands down. I'm trying to get into coaching the CYO league
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341. drj10526
5:44 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
and then they update it, thanks anyway
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340. drj10526
5:35 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
one more question, i am some what new at this. Is there any real schedule to when albany releases new discussions? I would think with a storm on our doorstep they would have updated it since 9pm.
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339. TheDawnAwakening
5:34 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
You really seem like someone real interested in Basketball. How tall are you Shoveler?
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338. TheShovler3
5:33 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Solid 8-10" with some isolated 12-13" marks
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337. TheShovler3
5:32 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
listener, i play basketball twice a week and lastnight i went up to block a shot and came down on someones foot and rolled my ankle completely over. Agonizing to say the least.

If its one thing i'm good at, is knowing what to do to get back to normal. I Haven't been as diligent with my ankle strengthening exercises(i have a weak ankle) because of the holidays and my ankle wasn't as strong as it should have been at the time.
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336. TheDawnAwakening
5:31 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Storm seems to be following the further southward track the models were showing earlier yesterday, since today is now Saturday.
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335. drj10526
5:30 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Im thinking about 9" but hoping for more. what do you all think?
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334. drj10526
5:27 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
nice, i think we are in for a good one this time. I didn't have the time to enjoy the december storms. Looking forward to doing some measuring and taking a bunch of photos. Just got a new canon camera.
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333. listenerVT
5:25 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Quoting TheShovler3:
well i didn't break it! but i do have a chip and i can't play basketball for 2-4 weeks! I'm gonna die! Oh well.... a good day of rest for the storm tomorrow!


Shovler, what happened?
I scrolled back to post #200 but didn't find where you spoke of this before.
Gosh, that sounds like rotten luck; sorry to hear it!
Take care of it so you can be full strength again. ♥
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332. drj10526
5:25 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
new milford, ct 06776

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331. TheDawnAwakening
5:12 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Low stay south, stay south. No don't listen to the models, go further south. Be different for a change and listen to me, stay south.
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330. TheShovler3
4:51 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Drj, just checked your blog...New Milford is only about 45min from me i'm in Dutchess County, NY

Cchamp is in litchfield county above you.
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329. TheDawnAwakening
4:47 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
It appears the 00z NAM and GFS have come into agreement on a further north solution with the 850mb low moving right over my house which is very discouraging, but for now will keep my snowfall maps given the abrupt change with the NAM and GFS over one run as well as the fact that they initialized too far west and too strong with the low now over NE TX.
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328. TheShovler3
4:46 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Where in western, CT?
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327. drj10526
4:44 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Friday night and can't wait too watch this unfold tomorrow. western CT looking good for a decent amount. Are there any locals on here?
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326. TheDawnAwakening
3:46 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Shoveler, I posted my thoughts about the game in my blog. Defense was inconsistent, offense was staggnant in the second half and that if when the Lebron Show took off. Wow 7-11" for you, I hope you get that snowfall, Taunton, MA NWS office has us at 5" now.
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325. TheShovler3
3:42 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
tomorrows gonna be a blizzard.... the weather channel is on top of the accumulations for 7-11" woah
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324. TheShovler3
3:40 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
time to watch my Phoenix and the big Shaqtus. Hopefully they win... and not lose by a buzzer beater for the 4th game this season.
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323. TheShovler3
3:38 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Thats the worst i've seen the celts get dominated in the last 2 years. its like they came out expecting to lose. LBJ really locked it down but no different then any other time...the team looked heartless
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322. TheDawnAwakening
3:35 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
well this is something more then a slump they are in if they can't beat Toronto on Sunday. Tonight was the Lebron James show. very disappointing to watch them struggle like this.
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321. donnie
3:09 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Cool shots, Sully.
Will this weekends' storm be a heavy, light or moderate water content?

Darn cold out there at 14º - but nice near full moon on icy trees and fresh snowfall like diamonds glittering in the shining moonlight. Or, is it stardust that fell today that glistens in the snow?

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320. Zachary Labe
3:01 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
sullivanweather- Look what the 0z NAM is cooking up at 84hr.
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319. rmh9903
2:32 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Sully ... You going to do a entry about the cold snap that is coming? 2 other questions... How far south will sub freezing levels reach? ANd how long will it last? Thanks man....
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318. TheShovler3
1:51 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
well i didn't break it! but i do have a chip and i can't play basketball for 2-4 weeks! I'm gonna die! Oh well.... a good day of rest for the storm tomorrow!
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317. listenerVT
1:03 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Quoting sullivanweather:



Ask Santa for Christmas! LOL =)


Gosh, you mean I've got to wait until next Christmas?? LOL!
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316. TheDawnAwakening
12:51 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Sully, normally those of us on the coast get the best storms sometime end of January and into early February then the wind storm season is from March into May and then after May its the thunderstorm season followed by wind storms into January once again.
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315. TheDawnAwakening
12:48 AM GMT on January 10, 2009
Quoting sullivanweather:
Dean,

You might get some near blizzard conditions should that verify. Check out those isobars! Also, from the due north so some OES would be assured! DeltaT's would be running a phenomenal 30°C!


I hope that is the case, delta Ts of 30C would be insane especially on Cape Cod, MA in the form of ocean effect snow. I will be back for the start of the GFS run at 1030pm EDT because I will be watching the Celtics vs Cavaliers on ESPN at 8pm, minutes from now. It should be a good game.
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314. sullivanweather
11:31 PM GMT on January 09, 2009
Quoting listenerVT:
Where do I go to trade in some arctic air for some snow?



Ask Santa for Christmas! LOL =)
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313. listenerVT
11:30 PM GMT on January 09, 2009
Yeah, Sully, there's often a big storm around February 20th (which was my father-in-law's birthday)
and after a week or so of mud season in early March we usually get a big snowstorm on the second (or maybe third) weekend in March.
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