Upper trough persists

By: sullivanweather , 9:21 AM GMT on July 01, 2008

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am


An upper trough will slowly lift through the Northeast and fill over the next couple days. Showers and thunderstorms have occurred along the trough axis with this feature each afternoon and should continue today. Building heights on Wednesday will bring sunnier skies and warmer temperatures over the western half of the region with showers confined to New England. The next upper trough in this active pattern, which has lasted several weeks now, will dig down into the Great Lakes on Thursday, sending a cold front towards the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, a few of which may be severe. The front will settle south and stall somewhere between central Pennsylvania and the Mason-Dixon line by Friday before slowly lifting back northwards this weekend. Several disturbances will ripple along the boundary during this timeframe sparking rounds of convection making for a stormy holiday weekend across the southern half of the region. Finally, a northern stream trough will swing by on Sunday, extending convection chances into northern New York and New England. However, this feature should be progressive, sweeping offshore and taking the stalled frontal boundary with it. Only one day to dry out on Monday before another trough brings renewed chances for showers and storms by next Tuesday and Wednesday.



Short-term - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am

Today's weather graphic






An area of vorticity along an upper trough axis is in the process of shearing out. Regardless, it has continued to keep showers going over the western Finger Lakes region of New York and north-central Pennsylvania. These showers will wane after sunrise and drift eastwards. The morning will begin with partly to mostly sunny skies east of the upper trough axis with mostly cloudy skies under this feature with scattered showers. Areas of patchy fog will be found in the river valleys and other sheltered valleys, especially if rain fell the prior day. Eventually, strong late June sun will burn off most low clouds and modestly destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures climb into the upper 70's with dewpoints in the upper 50's bringing surface based CAPE values to 500-800J/kg ahead of the trough axis from eastern Pennsylvania northeastwards into western New England. Mid-level lapse rates increase as cold pool associated with the trough moves overhead and the region lies under a 80-100kt 300mb jet streak. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop along and ahead of the trough axis. Dry air above 700mb and lowered freezing levels will allow for small hail within some of the stronger cells along with some gusty winds, although most storms will remain below severe limits with weak flow below 700mb (<25kts). These lighter winds will allow for mainly pulse type thunderstorms or propagating cells on a 30-120 degree heading. A small window during the mid to late afternoon for severe weather exists over western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Most of the day spent with partly sunny skies will bring muCAPE values to 1,200J/kg with winds @500mb of ~40kts as storms move into the region. A few severe wind gusts may result, as well as penny to nickel-sized hail. Dry air moving into the region behind the trough will end showers from west to east across eastern Pennsylvania and New York before most activity winds down after sunset.

Clear skies and light winds will allow for decent summer-time radiational cooling to the west of the trough axis. Patchy fog will develop in river and sheltered valleys. Eastwards to New England under the trough axis, partly to mostly cloudy skies will exist with isolated showers. Lows tonight will fall into the 50's across much of the interior with 40's possible across the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain temperatures will likely remain in the 60's.

Trough axis will move offshore most of the Northeast coast on Wednesday, Maine being the exception, with building heights moving into from the west. Scattered showers and thundershowers will develop over Maine as enough convergence within the trough axis and cold pool aloft move overhead. Otherwise, the rest of the region will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's. Showers may cool temperatures into the 60's across Maine.

More dry weather expected Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. A great night for stargazing with comfortable temperatures in the 50's and 60's.



Rest of forecast to come later


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%
June 30th - 75°F/59°F....0.03"....70%

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39. sullivanweather
1:30 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Hey all!

I'm in the process of writing up my blog for today.

I'll respond to all the comments here in the new blog once it's posted.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
38. TheShovler3
1:26 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
looks like an exciting day ahead of us for severe weather!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
37. MDFirefighter
11:02 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Good morning Sully!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
36. Fshhead
7:52 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
35. Fshhead
7:51 AM GMT on July 03, 2008


Hey Sully,
Sorry to interupt your weather blog but you HAVE to see this Obama speech Bro!!!!!!! You can delete after ya watch it if ya want to lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
34. TheShovler3
4:32 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Thanks Listener,

the weather today was relatively boring. had a heavy downpour for about 3 min here this morning but other than that it was very clear out.


Tomorrow looks a bit more stormy.

Golfing tomorrow at 2pm at carvel, then starts the 3 day long party for the weekend! I'm excited!

Picked my first Zuk and yellow Squash today!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
33. listenerVT
4:24 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Got my largest flower garden weeded today
and planted a few new perennials.
Fertilised the pansies too.

Hubby's vegetable garden is doing well now.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
32. listenerVT
4:22 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Shoveler...so glad to hear you got an oral anti-itch med!

Way to go!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
31. listenerVT
4:21 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Where did everybody go today??

I hope you're all okay!

Sully was probably out trying to recapture some of his lost photos.

How is everyone?
Was the weather boring today or something?

Interesting to watch the Atlantic now!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
30. listenerVT
4:19 AM GMT on July 03, 2008
Oh the power of a decimal point!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
29. TampaFLUSA
4:55 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
71 inches in past 45 mins
That would be biblical(-: .71"
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1731
28. listenerVT
3:25 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
71 inches in past 45 mins

LOL~!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
27. TampaFLUSA
2:53 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
Finally got some rain...71 inches in past 45 mins.
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1731
26. TheShovler3
1:14 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
Champ, yeah it seems as if the last week or two they have skirted me or just dropped completely off in intensity.


I'm fine with whenever probably... as long as i can get a bit of advanced notice. Weekdays are best but i know thats not possible for everyone.

Ivy is completely gone now those pills work wonders!


Some good storms popped up to the west we shall see if the river kills them too.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
25. listenerVT
12:22 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
11. sullivanweather 1:36 PM EDT on July 01, 2008

Sorry to hear about your lost pics!!

Wildlife*Biologist*Son got 5 rolls of film above the Arctic Circle one summer and the dang photo store overexposed them all very seriously, ruining them all!

I hate it when that happens!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6243
24. cchamp6
9:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Another one moving my way.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
23. cchamp6
9:13 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Your not having any luck with these storms lately. I cant begin to recall how many storms we have had this year.

How is the ivy?

Any thoughts on playing golf with Sully in the near future.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
22. TheShovler3
9:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
okay the "strong" storm, moved right over my area and died! its ridiculous!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
21. cchamp6
8:51 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Just had 1.34" of rain in about 30 minutes. 1" fell in less twenty minutes. Lots of cloud to ground lightning. Very close by! Cells dont seem to be moving very quickly.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
20. TheShovler3
8:02 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
looks like a strong cell is going to push through here... the have a statement out for .5" hail and strong winds
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
19. crowe1
6:25 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
My 9 year old daughter just reminded me that she has the biggest catch of the year with a 16" walleye.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
18. crowe1
6:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Happy golfing Sully!
Enjoy the salmon Blizz. I have an uncle-in-law who guides mainly in the Central NY area, if you ever go, let me know.


I haven't been golfing on a course in about 10yrs, I just hit on the lawn. I used to score about 85-100 on a par 5.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
17. Zachary Labe
6:14 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15251
16. crowe1
6:09 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
This formed just to the north over water.Link The wind is up to 14mph now.
After that cell earlier the temp went down 5F in a few min., now it's back up with a higher dew point.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
15. sullivanweather
5:44 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
I'll have Kate take care of it. I don't have the patience for it right now...lol

Hopefully the storms hold off for my golf round.

The one cell where NY/NJ/PA meets seems to be right on line to hit where the course is. We'll see.

I can't wait to go play! I haven't been out in so long.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
14. TheShovler3
5:40 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
good luck on golf! i was gonna head out this morning but decided i wanted to sleep a bit more.


Blizzard, this will be my first salmon trip ... hope it goes well. My brother is taking me for my graduation present
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
13. TheShovler3
5:38 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
just format the card! don't throw it away
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
12. TheShovler3
5:36 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
storm was just moving at me and then hit the hudson and disappeared !
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
11. sullivanweather
5:36 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Damnit!!

My damn memory card just took and dump and corrupted all my photo files on it. Looks like I need to get a new card now. Lost about 100 pics, good ones too..
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
10. Zachary Labe
5:31 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
TheShovler3- I love fishing. I too have a trip scheduled up north, on Lake Ontario for salmon and lake trout near Oswego, in August.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15251
9. sullivanweather
5:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
I'm getting ready to go out and play golf.

1st time out this year. I hope I break 100...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
8. TheShovler3
5:16 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Fishing is great... i'm planning a trip up north to go salmon fishing i'm kinda exited about it
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
7. sullivanweather
5:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Nice!

I just bought myself a couple fishing poles. I've been living here for 2 years with a mile long lake in the front yard and have yet to go fishing once!

My landlord goes fishing all the time and always comes back with a half dozen foot long and greater fish.

I need to catch myself some dinner...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
6. crowe1
4:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
I got .184" out of that, all while on the lake fishing with my daughter, in 6 min.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
5. crowe1
4:24 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
Caught a 14" small mouth bass and a quick pop up shower.Link
Of course I forgot to take a picture of the fish.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
4. LakeShadow
3:41 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
waiting for buffalo climatology report for June... NWS hasnt gotten it up yet but looking at the WU sites theres a KBUF report

Month of June 2008
Temperature:
Max Temperature 89?F/31?C
Mean Temperature 68F/20?C
Min Temperature 49?F/9?C
Degree Days:
Heating Degree Days (base 65) 8
Cooling Degree Days (base 65) 15
Growing Degree Days (base 50) 30
Dew Point:
Dew Point 58?F/14?C
Precipitation: 4.91 in / 12.45 cm
Wind:
Wind max 37 mph / 60 km/h avg. 10 mph / 17 km/h min. 0 mph / 0 km/h
Gust Wind 48 mph / 77 km/h 24 mph / 38 km/h 16 mph / 26 km/h
Sea Level Pressure:
Sea Level Pressure 30.31 in /1026 hPa 29.89 in/1012 hPa 29.66 in/1004 hPa


Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
3. Zachary Labe
2:28 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
sullivanweather- By the way I love the today's weather graphic. Keep them coming!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15251
2. Zachary Labe
2:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
sullivanweather- O gosh I miss the storm of the year here. I was about 10miles south of my home when the storm hit. The core of the storm though went right over my house with damage reported in my nearby town. 32mph gust was recorded on my weather station. And an unbelievable 12.52inch rain rate per hour was reached at one point during the storm. Wow! I did get some pictures of the shelf cloud though. But I missed the main part of the storm. .69inches of rain was my total in a 15minute period. I appreciate you looking out for my region though!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15251
1. TheShovler3
1:09 PM GMT on July 01, 2008
looks like i'm in the red chance of severe blotch on on the map! Yeehaw
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579

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