Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 9:21 AM GMT on July 01, 2008
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Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Synopsis - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am
An upper trough will slowly lift through the Northeast and fill over the next couple days. Showers and thunderstorms have occurred along the trough axis with this feature each afternoon and should continue today. Building heights on Wednesday will bring sunnier skies and warmer temperatures over the western half of the region with showers confined to New England. The next upper trough in this active pattern, which has lasted several weeks now, will dig down into the Great Lakes on Thursday, sending a cold front towards the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, a few of which may be severe. The front will settle south and stall somewhere between central Pennsylvania and the Mason-Dixon line by Friday before slowly lifting back northwards this weekend. Several disturbances will ripple along the boundary during this timeframe sparking rounds of convection making for a stormy holiday weekend across the southern half of the region. Finally, a northern stream trough will swing by on Sunday, extending convection chances into northern New York and New England. However, this feature should be progressive, sweeping offshore and taking the stalled frontal boundary with it. Only one day to dry out on Monday before another trough brings renewed chances for showers and storms by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Short-term - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am
Today's weather graphic
An area of vorticity along an upper trough axis is in the process of shearing out. Regardless, it has continued to keep showers going over the western Finger Lakes region of New York and north-central Pennsylvania. These showers will wane after sunrise and drift eastwards. The morning will begin with partly to mostly sunny skies east of the upper trough axis with mostly cloudy skies under this feature with scattered showers. Areas of patchy fog will be found in the river valleys and other sheltered valleys, especially if rain fell the prior day. Eventually, strong late June sun will burn off most low clouds and modestly destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures climb into the upper 70's with dewpoints in the upper 50's bringing surface based CAPE values to 500-800J/kg ahead of the trough axis from eastern Pennsylvania northeastwards into western New England. Mid-level lapse rates increase as cold pool associated with the trough moves overhead and the region lies under a 80-100kt 300mb jet streak. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop along and ahead of the trough axis. Dry air above 700mb and lowered freezing levels will allow for small hail within some of the stronger cells along with some gusty winds, although most storms will remain below severe limits with weak flow below 700mb (<25kts). These lighter winds will allow for mainly pulse type thunderstorms or propagating cells on a 30-120 degree heading. A small window during the mid to late afternoon for severe weather exists over western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Most of the day spent with partly sunny skies will bring muCAPE values to 1,200J/kg with winds @500mb of ~40kts as storms move into the region. A few severe wind gusts may result, as well as penny to nickel-sized hail. Dry air moving into the region behind the trough will end showers from west to east across eastern Pennsylvania and New York before most activity winds down after sunset.
Clear skies and light winds will allow for decent summer-time radiational cooling to the west of the trough axis. Patchy fog will develop in river and sheltered valleys. Eastwards to New England under the trough axis, partly to mostly cloudy skies will exist with isolated showers. Lows tonight will fall into the 50's across much of the interior with 40's possible across the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain temperatures will likely remain in the 60's.
Trough axis will move offshore most of the Northeast coast on Wednesday, Maine being the exception, with building heights moving into from the west. Scattered showers and thundershowers will develop over Maine as enough convergence within the trough axis and cold pool aloft move overhead. Otherwise, the rest of the region will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's. Showers may cool temperatures into the 60's across Maine.
More dry weather expected Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. A great night for stargazing with comfortable temperatures in the 50's and 60's.
Rest of forecast to come later
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
June Daily Weather Statistics
June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%
June 30th - 75°F/59°F....0.03"....70%
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