Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 9:29 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Synopsis - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am
An upper level low will drop over the Northeast on Tuesday and stick around for much of the week as a blocking ridge develops over the Davis Strait. Chances for diurnally driven showers and thundershowers will exist each day as the cold pool aloft and June sun work in tandem to destabilize the atmosphere. Showers and thundershowers will be most concentrated near any shortwaves that rotate around this upper low. This feature will begin to lift northeastward by the start of the weekend but another trough will move into the region, perhaps spawning a coastal system that could bring more rain. Temperatures should average below normal for much of the period with daily max's running 5-10 degrees below normal and overnight lows slightly below to near normal.
Short-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am
Steadier rain will begin the day over northern Maine as the trough that swept through the region yesterday tilts negative, increasing the onshore flow ahead of the system. Another batch of scattered showers exists over western New York associated with a 500mb shortwave. This potent spoke of energy will rotate into the Northeast during the day on Tuesday, setting off showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave will be associated with a secondary surge of cold air aloft as the upper level low over the Great lakes slowly churns towards the region. Behind the disturbance 500mb temperatures fall to -20°C with freezing levels dropping to an astonishing 5-6,000 feet! Even though skin temperatures are only expected to rise into the 60's across much of the interior, lapse rates in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will still be great enough to induce convection. Low-topped cells will develop with diurnal heating in northeast Pennsylvania and south-central New York during the late morning and intensify as they push eastward into southern/central New England. Hail will be the primary threat from any storms that do develop with the low freezing levels. A few localized microbursts are possible in any of the stronger cells that do develop but this wind damage threat appears minimal. Today's storms should not produce the same damaging hail that fell with yesterday's storms, which fell as the size of golf balls in some locations. Instead smaller pea-sized to penny-sized hail should do. Storm chances will diminish towards southern Pennsylvania to the southern coastal plain as partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures in the upper 60's to mid 70's. Other isolated orographic aided showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire during the afternoon. Showers and thundershowers will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures ranging from the 50's along the coastal plain to the 40's across much of the interior. Some of the higher elevations northern New York and New England may drop into the upper 30's.
Diurnal showers and thundershowers will develop once again tomorrow with the cold pool aloft remaining in place. However, the lack of any significant mid-level energy will make for a more isolated nature to the precipitation. Showers will develop from orographic lift and differential heating. Temperature will be several degrees colder than today with the core of the upper low overhead. Showers will die after dusk once again tomorrow night, although marginable instability provided by the lakes may allow for showers to develop downwind. Delta T's will approach 12°C Wednesday night with the cold pool overhead. Lows will range from the upper 30's across the higher terrain to the lower 50's along the coast with 40's predominate across the rest of the interior.
Mid-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am
The vertically stacked low will slowly lift northeastwards into New England Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue to average below normal with diurnally driven showers and thundershowers. Impossible to time shortwaves rotating around the upper low will enhance chances for any precipitation. This upper low finally begins to lift into Canada by Saturday with rising heights and a return to near normal temperatures. Most locales will remain precipitation-free, however, isolated showers are still a possibility, especially over New England.
Long-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am
Another trough will dip into the Northeast on Sunday bringing renewed chances for rainfall. The GFS operational and several ensemble members are indicating the development of a coastal system that could bring a steady soaking rainfall and below normal temperatures to areas within 100-150 miles of the coast right on through the beginning of next week. The GGEM is also indicating coastal develop while the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the system offshore with some fringe effects along the immediate coast.
This system should pull away by Tuesday with building heights and warming temperatures returning to the region.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
June Daily Weather Statistics
June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
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