Upper low to sit over the Northeast

By: sullivanweather , 9:29 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

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Regional Forecast



Synopsis - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



An upper level low will drop over the Northeast on Tuesday and stick around for much of the week as a blocking ridge develops over the Davis Strait. Chances for diurnally driven showers and thundershowers will exist each day as the cold pool aloft and June sun work in tandem to destabilize the atmosphere. Showers and thundershowers will be most concentrated near any shortwaves that rotate around this upper low. This feature will begin to lift northeastward by the start of the weekend but another trough will move into the region, perhaps spawning a coastal system that could bring more rain. Temperatures should average below normal for much of the period with daily max's running 5-10 degrees below normal and overnight lows slightly below to near normal.



Short-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



Steadier rain will begin the day over northern Maine as the trough that swept through the region yesterday tilts negative, increasing the onshore flow ahead of the system. Another batch of scattered showers exists over western New York associated with a 500mb shortwave. This potent spoke of energy will rotate into the Northeast during the day on Tuesday, setting off showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave will be associated with a secondary surge of cold air aloft as the upper level low over the Great lakes slowly churns towards the region. Behind the disturbance 500mb temperatures fall to -20°C with freezing levels dropping to an astonishing 5-6,000 feet! Even though skin temperatures are only expected to rise into the 60's across much of the interior, lapse rates in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will still be great enough to induce convection. Low-topped cells will develop with diurnal heating in northeast Pennsylvania and south-central New York during the late morning and intensify as they push eastward into southern/central New England. Hail will be the primary threat from any storms that do develop with the low freezing levels. A few localized microbursts are possible in any of the stronger cells that do develop but this wind damage threat appears minimal. Today's storms should not produce the same damaging hail that fell with yesterday's storms, which fell as the size of golf balls in some locations. Instead smaller pea-sized to penny-sized hail should do. Storm chances will diminish towards southern Pennsylvania to the southern coastal plain as partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures in the upper 60's to mid 70's. Other isolated orographic aided showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire during the afternoon. Showers and thundershowers will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures ranging from the 50's along the coastal plain to the 40's across much of the interior. Some of the higher elevations northern New York and New England may drop into the upper 30's.

Diurnal showers and thundershowers will develop once again tomorrow with the cold pool aloft remaining in place. However, the lack of any significant mid-level energy will make for a more isolated nature to the precipitation. Showers will develop from orographic lift and differential heating. Temperature will be several degrees colder than today with the core of the upper low overhead. Showers will die after dusk once again tomorrow night, although marginable instability provided by the lakes may allow for showers to develop downwind. Delta T's will approach 12°C Wednesday night with the cold pool overhead. Lows will range from the upper 30's across the higher terrain to the lower 50's along the coast with 40's predominate across the rest of the interior.


Mid-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am




The vertically stacked low will slowly lift northeastwards into New England Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue to average below normal with diurnally driven showers and thundershowers. Impossible to time shortwaves rotating around the upper low will enhance chances for any precipitation. This upper low finally begins to lift into Canada by Saturday with rising heights and a return to near normal temperatures. Most locales will remain precipitation-free, however, isolated showers are still a possibility, especially over New England.



Long-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



Another trough will dip into the Northeast on Sunday bringing renewed chances for rainfall. The GFS operational and several ensemble members are indicating the development of a coastal system that could bring a steady soaking rainfall and below normal temperatures to areas within 100-150 miles of the coast right on through the beginning of next week. The GGEM is also indicating coastal develop while the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the system offshore with some fringe effects along the immediate coast.

This system should pull away by Tuesday with building heights and warming temperatures returning to the region.





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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%

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56. BANGORWALKER
12:31 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Hey cchamp great family you got there! Check out the green in my blog header photo. What do you think of that pin placement? You have to come pretty close or else go for a roll LOL! Funny thing I live right there but I've never got good at the game, despite many hours of pitch and putt practice in the off season. I'm lucky to break 100, my best ever is 87...
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3418
55. cchamp6
11:35 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
These are my little gardeners after graduating pre school last week. They are twins. They love to weed and help plant. Oh yeah, thats my wife and me. She loves the fresh veggies.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
54. TheShovler3
3:33 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
NYS Crop Damage

Monday's Hail Storms packed quite the economical punch for NYS farmers.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
53. TheShovler3
1:35 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
No problem, The first year i had no idea how they produced so i planed 12 plants before i knew it i was literally swimming in zuks. I was sending friends home with boxes. This year i planted 6 or zuks and 6 of yellow summer squash and i'm growing for two houses and winter storage... And i'll bet im still gonna end up giving tons away
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
52. Zachary Labe
1:30 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
TheShovler3- Sounds good, thanks!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
51. TheShovler3
1:28 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Bliz, the zuks will go forever! Until it frosts. Even if it starts to die off leave it, more often then not it will start new growth and give you a few more zuks.

If you can, get some of the male flowers when they open and dip them in an Egg/Oregano/Parmesan Cheese/Flour mixture and fry them in a pan... delicious.

You'll soon learn that a few zuk plants will go a LONG way... you'll be begging them to stop
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
50. Zachary Labe
1:25 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
sullivanweather- Good evening!!! Gardening question... Will the zucchini plants continue to produce zucchinni or is it a once and one thing?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
49. TheShovler3
1:24 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
I went through my Gold raspberry patch and pulled out the new shoots and weeded it all. Tied up the large shoots and got it all ready and looking nice. Before it looked like a hedge, now you can tell were the main plants are. I pulled out 63 new shoot plants roots and all. I don't want to throw them away so i've got them soaking in a vat of water while i ponder where to put them.

Sully, whats your take on the severe weather tomorrow, i've got to play basketball at 845pm for a night game, wash or not?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
48. TheShovler3
1:19 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
I guess i waited because the heads were relatively small with the largest head just about the size of my palm, but most of them well smaller. I picked them all today and they still tasted good just looked a little weird. Once it formed a head, it won't form anymore right?

Champ, I played 18 this morning as well, after a 4 over start to the day on the first hole i shot an 85 but i also had two triples in there so i was 10 over in just 3 holes and 3 over in the other 15... Oh well its better than i usually do there just sucks that i could have scored so much lower. Perhaps i can pick up some mental tips from you when we golf.

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
47. cchamp6
12:27 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
I picked my first broc. tonight and it tasted great! Wish I had planted more.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
46. sullivanweather
12:21 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Shovler,

That's the progression your broccoli will take if you're late in harvesting it.

Usually once the plant starts to develop its head it only takes about 4 days or so until its ready for harvest. If you wait any longer it'll branch out and go to flower.

Broccoli is one of those things you have to get as early as possible. But not too early otherwise you end up with barely anything.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
45. cchamp6
11:33 PM GMT on June 21, 2008
Hey Shoveler,

So I teed off at 6:30 this morning. I had 18 holes done by 9:15. Shot 73 with a triple on the 9th hole. Went home and picked my wife and took her to the Travelers Championship. Watched an absolute birdie fest at the TPC at River Highlands. Stewart Cink is leading. I followed him, Vijay Sing, Matt Kuchar and several others. It was the second lowest scoring day there in 50+ years.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
44. TheShovler3
10:18 PM GMT on June 21, 2008
So i got a question... garden related for you sully.

My broc. is getting way taller than its leaves and looks like its going to seed. The heads aren't tight either.
What gives?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
43. seflagamma
9:54 PM GMT on June 21, 2008
Wow, your garden looks great! You have some good fresh veggies coming your way soon. Thanks for the pictures!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 314 Comments: 41189
42. listenerVT
4:02 AM GMT on June 21, 2008
Looks like the blog isn't updating.

I may have a double post, therefore.

Will try to come by and do cleanup tomorrow,
if it's there yet.


Typhoon Fengshen is looking scary!
Could hit China as a Cat 3.
They sure don't need more chaos!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
41. listenerVT
4:00 AM GMT on June 21, 2008
Thank-you, crowe1 ♡

Today Ally's temp went up to 100.6.
In her situation, if it goes over 100 she has to go back to the hospital.
So that's where they are tonight.
She's on and IV getting a nutrition tank-up time,
as she hasn't gained weight and kept it on since February.
It's kind of spooky at the moment,
but her parents are being amazingly upbeat and strong.
Today was her Mom's last day teaching second grade for this year.
At least life will now get a bit easier logistically.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
40. listenerVT
3:59 AM GMT on June 21, 2008
Thank-you, crowe1 ♡

Today Ally's temp went up to 100.6.
In her situation, if it goes over 100 she has to go back to the hospital.
So that's where they are tonight.
She's on and IV getting a nutrition tank-up time,
as she hasn't gained weight and kept it on since February.
It's kind of spooky at the moment,
but her parents are being amazingly upbeat and strong.
Today was her Mom's last day teaching second grade for this year.
At least life will now get a bit easier logistically.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
39. crowe1
10:40 AM GMT on June 20, 2008
Good vibes sent Listener:)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 955
38. listenerVT
4:18 AM GMT on June 20, 2008
Ally update..

She has a little fever
and a high frustration level
and tomorrow is her Mom's last day of teaching school for the year.

If her fever rises more, it's back to the hospital.
Good vibes appreciated. ♡
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
37. listenerVT
4:14 AM GMT on June 20, 2008
Thanks for the clickableness of the map, Sully!

Thanks too for the beetle diagnosis!

We aren't to that point yet...
we end up having to set those yellow traps up along the fence.
They're amazing.

And I completely blanked on them! Ha!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
36. Zachary Labe
5:42 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
sullivanweather- Thanks for posting pictures of your wonderful looking garden! Your weather outlook pattern sounds good and maybe you will get that heat wave that you want!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
35. sullivanweather
3:41 PM GMT on June 19, 2008


Spinach rows.

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Swiss Chard.

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Broccoli.

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Broccoli head forming.

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Potato bed.

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Snow peas.

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Cucumbers and radish.

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Red and green leaf lettuce with eggplant in a row down the center. Lace leaf plant is dill - it's pretty much everywhere.

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Beets.

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Summer romaine that needs to be thinned and spread into that bed.

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Collards.

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Bush beans.

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Sweet corn seedlings coming up (silver queen).

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Corn bed (about 40 feet long by 8 feet wide).

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Wider vire of the spinach, chard and broccoli.

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Tomato bed is in the foreground running to the left side, behind them is the sections with the lettuce and beets.

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Our Patio 'mater'.

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A broccoli harvest from 2 days ago minus one dinner side dish
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
34. sullivanweather
2:13 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
We have had a lot of severe weather despite not getting many thunderstorms. We've only had like 6 thunderstorm days since the beginning of May but 3 of them were severe.

But you must be careful what you wish for...

The hail we've had has really messed up some of the greens leaving pretty good sized holes in the leaves.

As for the pattern, I don't see any big changes in the next week. As soon as this upper low lifts out of the region another rather potent shortwave trough will dip down from the Great Lakes and re-amplify the trough over the east and may even become cut-off from the main flow once again. If it does so it will take until about next Thursday or Friday to shear out. Thereafter I see the polar vortex setting up near western Hudson Bay and a westward expansion of the Bermuda high by the end of the month giving us a pretty good warm-up and possible heat wave.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
33. Zachary Labe
2:01 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
sullivanweather- Thanks. I see your area has been hit by many pretty intense thunderstorms. My area which typically is very active has had a quiet severe weather year. It is sort of frustrating. My winter was quiet and yours was active. Maybe I need to move to southern New York State, lol. What weather pattern do you forsee the future to hold?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
32. sullivanweather
1:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
Hey Blizz!

I just saw them over on your blog and remembered telling you that I'd get some pics of mine. I'll post them over in your blog by the end of the day.

Maybe the coffee will perk me up enough to go out there after I finish it...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
31. Zachary Labe
1:45 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
sullivanweather- Good morning!!! How is your vegetable garden doing? I want to see some pictures of it. I posted some pictures of my vegetable garden in my blog. Check them out if you don't mind.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
30. sullivanweather
1:42 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
I was wondering that myself...

I was also wondering why the only tornado reported (in Newburgh) didn't have any tornado warning attached to the cell while no tornados were reported where there were actually warnings.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
29. TheShovler3
1:34 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
how come the tornado warning they issued for All of mid/north dutchess isn't listed on the map?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
28. TheShovler3
12:25 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
A friend of mine just south were they had the down burst and the brunt of the storm on monday reported 3.5" of rain in 1hour at their place.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
27. dean2007
12:16 PM GMT on June 19, 2008
Yeah Sully, they did, although I don't know how well your Knicks are doing. LOL. No thunderstorms Blizzard.
26. sullivanweather
2:40 AM GMT on June 19, 2008
We had 0.23" of rain today.

0.34" yesterday.

The lettuce and broccoli is loving this weather. So are the snowpeas.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
25. TheShovler3
2:33 AM GMT on June 19, 2008
another .25" of rain today... getting really soupy out there
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
24. sullivanweather
1:57 AM GMT on June 19, 2008
Dean,

LOL

Like I said. Boston all the way this year. =)
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
23. sullivanweather
1:56 AM GMT on June 19, 2008
Listener,

I'll update the map above so it'll bring you to a page where you can see the individual reports.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
22. sullivanweather
1:54 AM GMT on June 19, 2008
jthal57,

That would be Japanese beetles.

You need to get a beetle trap and set it about 50' away from the garden. If you put it too close you'll draw them into the garden.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
21. Zachary Labe
9:00 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
dean2007- What a game last night! They played their best last night. Did you end of getting any thunderstorms up your way yesterday? I saw there were some hail reports in New England.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
20. dean2007
8:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Thank you to the 2008 NBA Champion Boston Celtics for one hell of a year.
19. cchamp6
8:30 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Getting a early spring like thundershower presently. TEmp is only 62 degrees after a morning low of 42.9 degrees.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
18. jthal57
6:51 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Thanks listener! I will try the dawn treatment. I haven't seen any critters, but I'll keep looking.
17. listenerVT
6:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Sully...isn't the hail map supposed to be clickable?
I can't get it to open in either browser I use.

If not, can you decipher the colour coding for us?
Thanks!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
16. listenerVT
6:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
jthal57...


Would leaf-cutter ants attack green beans leaves?

Have you seen any ants or beetles on the leaves (check the undersides too).

You might try spraying them with a light mix of water and Dawn dishwashing liquid (just a little of the soap.) I'm guess one part soap, 20 parts water, but Sully would know for sure. Dawn is used by biologists to cleanse birds that have been caught in an oil spill. It is pretty mild for the environment, won't harm the plant, and it deters a lot of bugs.

It's worth a try.

I can tell you that if you can stop the problem early on,
it won't affect your beans at all! :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6088
15. jthal57
4:28 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Good morning! Can anybody tell me what's eating my bean leaves, and what can I do to prevent it? (naturally, of course) Thanks!
14. TheShovler3
4:16 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Yup here is the link Tornado
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
13. Zachary Labe
1:59 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
TheShovler3- Well that is interesting. So a tornado did actually touch down in a location in New York State.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247
12. TheShovler3
1:03 PM GMT on June 18, 2008
Paper said the NWS found no damage consistent with a tornado in ulster or dutchess counties. 3 locations were found to have extensive damage with straight line winds at around 80mph.

They did say there was a tornado in newburgh that touched 3 times leaving consistent damage as an F0
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
11. sullivanweather
4:31 AM GMT on June 18, 2008
I agree, very nice pics!

That lightning one is one of those once a summer lucky shots!

Cal,

Yes! Please send some of that heat this way! I'll pay for shipping =)

BTW, that short story you sent me was awesome! Loved reading it! Thanks!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
10. LowerCal
4:25 AM GMT on June 18, 2008
4. sullivanweather 4:27 AM PDT on June 17, 2008

I want a heatwave...lol


This cool weather...I've had enough of it...



You want some of this Sully, lol?

Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 10332
9. BANGORWALKER
2:33 AM GMT on June 18, 2008
Nice pics people
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3418
8. TampaFLUSA
7:03 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Awesome pic ny!
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1671
7. nysevereweather
6:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Here's a grab from a video I took of a severe storm near Albany, NY yesterday:



I'm still going through my footage for more pictures!
6. Zachary Labe
2:16 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
sullivanweather- How is your vegetable garden doing? I want to see some pictures.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15247

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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