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Trosum (tropical summary) -- Sunday evening, September 2, 2012

By: Stu Ostro , 1:00 AM GMT on September 03, 2012

Asymmetric but large and deep Leslie in the southeast corner of the image, and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Isaac in the northwest corner. [Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office]


- Ex-Isaac is drifting east into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast with showers and thunderstorms. Wind fields are weakening, thus there's a reduced tornado threat, but some of the storms are still pretty strong; likewise, heavy rain continues to be less widespread, but there could still be some isolated high amounts.


- Leslie continues to struggle with upper-level winds that are producing "shear" (unfavorable for tropical storm strengthening), but it has a large surface wind circulation. That'll be churning up the Atlantic for days as the storm moves slowly, with ocean waves reaching the East Coast of the U.S. along with an elevated risk of rip currents.

- There's a very high probability of Bermuda being directly affected late in the week or next weekend. How much so will depend on the exact track, intensity, and size of Leslie at that time.

- Longer-range model forecasts still show the storm itself missing the United States, though some runs also still have that not happening with a whole lot of room to spare, and with the Canadian Maritimes in play. With models predicting a "high-amplitude" pattern to develop -- a sharp southward dip (trough) in the jet stream over the U.S. and a strong ridge of high pressure northeast of the storm -- that's the kind of configuration that can bring tropical systems to the Maritimes and/or New England. The question is exactly what the configuration of that trough will be and whether Leslie is too far east to get pulled back to the coast. We'll watch future model trends, and there's plenty of time to react if there's a significant shift.


- Kirk is "post-tropical" and the last advisory on it has been issued by the National Hurricane Center; what's left of it will combine with a high-latitude non-tropical weather system and head toward extreme northwest Europe tomorrow.


- The final advisory has been issued for Ileana. It is doing what many eastern Pacific tropical cyclones do: die over cold water.

- Tropical Depression 10-E has formed. After its outer fringes scrape the coast of Mexico, it'll head northwestward farther out to sea.


- Currently there are no tropical cyclones in the western Pacific.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2. hydrus
1:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Where,s the Nino.???..:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. originalLT
2:08 AM GMT on September 03, 2012
Thanks Mr. Ostro, it will be very interesting to see how far West Leslie eventually goes.Odds are it will curve out to the NE before bothering the US mainland, but as they say, "One never knows do one"!
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Proud to be a weather-obsessed weather geek! \m/ Senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel. If not a meteorologist, would be a DJ ♫

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