91L to become Emily and Smash the islands

By: sailingallover, 7:02 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

I just can't see ANYTHING that is going to slow development down at this point..The whole MDR was DRY 3 days ago and that low sucked enough moisture up to make almost the whole thing WET..I really think the Low interacting with AB high is why this changed so fast..I thought 3 days ago I'd be leaving for Trinidad today..it was DRY..I think the gradient imparts extra spin and makes for more oceanic moisture and heat content to be released..

94 in the Caribbean..better than expected chance

By: sailingallover, 1:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2011

As far as the Models,GFS has a strong Low developing over and North of the Virgin Islands Monday-Tuesday.Due to the fact the track of 93L will most likely be NE if it develops due to the Low Level through going NE from it and the upper level jet dipping down over the Bahamas( per the LBAR model) it may be that that Low is a continuation of a developed 93. So don't rule out development because GFS does not have a good definition of this one.Also this morning the e...


By: sailingallover, 2:53 PM GMT on February 06, 2011

SST TCHP the topic of the day...The Trades are finally building with a strong atlantic H forecast the next week. They have been weak most of the winter as the troughs from the storms over CONUS have eroded the ABH as fast as it develops. Right now most of the MDR is covered with 25-30+knt wind. We are getting low level showers from the heat and moisture the Atlantic is shedding every few hours here in the islands.So how much heat gets released and how much warmer wa...

Late Season 91L

By: sailingallover, 2:31 PM GMT on October 28, 2010

We may get that hyperactive season after all..PEOPLE IN THE ISLANDS BEWARE..While 91L is going to have to fight off shear it got a well defined well stacked circulation on RGB satellite, especially for a storm so far south. Plenty of moisture, warm ocean TCHP everything going for it. Until it goes north.There is 50KNT of shear over us now but that may relax a bit as the upper level low causing 92L becomes more organized and moves NW which incidentally will suck 91L...

95 and the next week

By: sailingallover, 12:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2010

I think the lastest GFS has a realistic grip on things.95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then car...

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