WunderBlog Archive » moonlightcowboy's WunderBlog

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Erika is no longer a fish

By: moonlightcowboy, 9:50 PM GMT on August 30, 2009

WEDNESDAY evening



Notice the convection now building over the east Caribbean llc, away from the heavy convection, and is now being steered by substantial low level southeasterly flow. The vigorous circulation is moving southwest and imo, will create a brand new set of dynamics for this complex tropical system.

This does not particularly surprise me at all as the broad, tilted cyclonic wave flow was moving east to west. It may be down-graded from TS status, but I expect Erika to regenerate convection since it is in the hot Caribbean and moving swest under the heaviest shear to her north. There is still considerable 20-30 knts shear to the west, but that is expected to relax.

Fasten your seatbelts, folks, the dynamics of this system and its track have now changed considerably imo. With Erika's llc now in the Caribbean, although still fighting shear, she will begin to regenerate more convection as she continues her southwest direction. Additionally, it is not inconceivable, though I have not studied this, that the convection embedded within the moisture maximum within the cyclonic flow may actually, eventually catch up (maybe only partially) with Erika's llc as the wave's flow begins to tilt from nwest to seast. One point though, imo, the east to west flow is going to be exxagerated by the tilting wave and will help to steer Erika further west, maybe even a little swest for a period of time. That would also help bring the llc under the heavier shear to is north.



This is a whole new ball game, imo, folks. Don't judge too harshly, I'm just a novice here; but this is what I see happening in the present. I am not fortelling the future, lol, even though I'm fairly confident Erika's future track is about to change considerably. How well it reacts to the changing dynamics, or if it is able to regenerate convection and strengthen, that is certainly in doubt. However, I am speculating that this vigorous circulation of the llc will continue to fight and be steered more west than north in the present. It is entirely possible for it to dissipate if it can't get out from under the shear or regrow convection - but, I don't think that will be the case at all.

Photobucket

The models, most all of them, are out to lunch on this one. They don't have a grasp of what is happening with this very unsual cyclogenesis, imo. I'll look at 'em, but in no way would I believe the lot of them, even if they were all in agreement. They do not have a remote clue about this system's eventual track or intensity at this time - never have had really mostly because of the complex, broad cyclonic flow within the tilted wave. Late yesterday and early today they have been more accurate, but that is all about to change now with these differing dynamics. This broad system is still basically embedded within the ITCZ because of the cyclonic flow. Any upper atmospheric steering from northerly troughiness or substantial coriolis have been negligible as the steering has mostly been predicated by the low level easterly flow and the tilt of the wave axis.

Another thing that the above Navy sfc winds graphic shows is that the seasterly flow is being reinforced and growing stronger - near 20 knts of low level flow - very hard for any weak circulation to move any direction but west or southwest in that kind of flow.

I want to say, in case I forgot to mention this earlier, that imo the models have been reacting "faslely" to initiating the system's llc and factoring in atmospheric forecasted conditions. It is my guess that the models have been misinterpreting any northerly troughiness or upper level conditions for steering. Instead, what has really been directing the movement hasn't been those factors at all; and rather, the movement has been nearly completely guided by the tilt and symmetry of the wave axis within the cyclonic flow.

IMO, as the tilt reached its maximum height in the transversing flow the models peaked with initiating the llc's position, then far northernmost, and tried to forecast movement past that time with upper atmospheric conditions. However, when the tilt progressed and the convection began to collapse and begin to level out, they lost their fix on the llc and, consequently, what would have been that last position's connection to those conditions. That has now changed, either or both llcs, will now be repositioned further west and southwest away from the earlier northernmost position and they will have to readjust to a new llc initiation point and migrate to the different atmospheric and surface conditions further west of their original forecasted guidance.



This Navy cloudsat shot adequately depicts the, now, northwest to southeast axis tilt of the wave embedded in the cyclonic flow. As the wave reached its maximum height, the atmospheric moisture, basically, collided with itself. The result was a self-induced "psuedo" shear, imo, that ejected the llc away from the collapsing convection. However, this cyclonic flow has, in addition to the moisture maximum, has had very visible elongated vorticity. So, as the wave completes the tilt from east to west, it is also likely creating additional vortices within the flow. More than likely, as before, this system's flow is producing several smaller vortices that have ultimately produced at least two main areas of vorticity. The one mentioned earlier in the Caribbean now, that is in the present exposed but building convection; and, likely the one still associated more southerly now within the tilt that's breaking or collapsing the convection as the wave starts to level out more horizontally. I suppose it is possible for either of these llc's to develop with the exposed llc continuing to track swest and the convective llc to continue a more northwesterly track. However, I would think that eventually one will become more dominant - which one? I'd lean toward the convective llc, but if anything, this system has been atypical. So, for that reason, and considering that the collapsing and tilting axis will propel the convection further west, I'm going to speculate that this convection could effectively "catch up" or again join the exposed llc and continue its track through the Caribbean. Sound far-fetched? I know, I thought so too and it probably is! LOL.



Sfc winds indicate the exposed llc, already in the Caribbean, is being steered southwesterly by the the low level easterly flow. This is a very unique system and has been all along. Present conditions are like supporting


Another thing that the above Navy sfc winds graphic shows is that the seasterly flow is being reinforced and growing stronger - near 20 knts of low level flow - very hard for any weak circulation to move any direction but west or southwest in that kind of flow.

I want to say, in case I forgot to mention this earlier, that imo the models have been reacting "faslely" to initiating the system's llc and factoring in atmospheric forecasted conditions. It is my guess that the models have been misinterpreting any northerly troughiness or upper level conditions for steering. Instead, what has really been directing the movement hasn't been those factors at all; and rather, the movement has been nearly completely guided by the tilt and symmetry of the wave axis within the cyclonic flow.

IMO, as the tilt reached its maximum height in the transversing flow the models peaked with initiating the llc's position, then far northernmost, and tried to forecast movement past that time with upper atmospheric conditions. However, when the tilt progressed and the convection began to collapse and begin to level out, they lost their fix on the llc and, consequently, what would have been that last position's connection to those conditions. That has now changed, either or both llcs, will now be repositioned further west and southwest away from the earlier northernmost position and they will have to readjust to a new llc initiation point and migrate to the different atmospheric and surface conditions further west of their original forecasted guidance.

It is my guess that this will take a certain amount of time for the models to adjust to these changes in position and conditions. So, any guidance for intensity and track will ultimately be false. However, expect the statistical models, which are short-run and can input and present data quicker than the dynamic models, to reflect the changes in position and atmospheric condtions more quickly. Again, those best suited and that have seemed to have a better interpretation of position and conditions to be LBAR and the BAMs.

That is one hulluva an easterly flow and the northern troughing is weakening and heading northwards away from the system. That cone will start shifting further west now, imo. Look for the 1800 runs to shift considerably west. Erika is no longer a fish!

Oh, and I'm fairly certain, that if you peek in the distance, you can actually see the smoke from the fire in Dr. Master's blog! ;P


WEDNESDAY morning

TS Erika is suffering from some southwesterly shear on the northwest side of the system this morning, but has a defined llc and decent convection. The models continue to trend west with the LBAR being the most consistent with track guidance. It's looking more and more like Erika will not be a fish, but it has to survive shear and land interaction of the northern islands. I'll have an updated novice analysis later on today.

Photobucket



MONDAY EVENING:

The tropical engine is finally working for 94L as evidenced by the cold towers over the core of the system. Convection is widening and the storm is quite symmetrical with very evident banding. I've had very little time to look at much of this evening, but I would suspect that 94L has found the 29 degree waters and is now fueling the lift, generating these high cloud tops. 94L's timing for more development coinciding with dmax couldn't be better - and if this kind of improvement continues it would not surprise me to see the NHC upgrade this anytime now to TD status. I've seen far worse looking TDs and TSs named.



Granted the sondes or QS may not be confirming an llc yet, but it is obviously there. Perhaps they are waiting for data from the scheduled recon tomorrow; however, if it looks, walks, talks and tracks like a duck - it's probably a duck! I have not looked at wind data, etc, so please, don't judge this brief observation and comment too harshly. I just think 94L should have already been labeled a depression by now; and certainly, it can only be hours away from getting officially classified as such.

Photobucket

And, each model run continues bring this sytem further west, and less north.


Monday morning:

94L once again took advantage of night time lift and built convection over the coc which did slide (not reform) somewhat "north" and "west" to 14.5n,51w because of the tilted wave flow becoming more perpendicular, not because of any weakness north of the system. Now, that the wave has righted itself, current steering flow still suggests more of a wnw component to movement. The wave is currently moving wnw at about 15 mph, though it does seem to be slowing somewhat. There is much better low level convergence and it still has good divergence aloft. Since the wave axis has become less tilted and added convection over the coc, the system has finally achieved some vertical stability over its core. The system looks symmetrical and convection is still scattered, but more uniform within the banding features of the outflow.

This is a fairly large system and it will take it some time to fill the diameter solidly with convection from the coc, but conditions look favorable in the present for further strengthening with little shear because of the anticyclone overhead. However, there is a freight train of shear associated with the ULL's in the TUTT axis immediately to the north and northwest of the system that will pulverize any growing convection without the anticyclone as it moves generally wnw. 94L is in 28 degree waters and has not quite made it to the 29 degree area in front of the system, so waters are not quite optimum.

Photobucket

I still do not think the models have gotten a good grasp of 94L's coc, but that may change as the system gets better organized. However, the entire group is still trending more westwards than northwards with the LBAR and BAMM remaining extremely consistent thus far, bringing the storm into the neast Caribbean over the northern Antilles.

If the NHC doesn't declare it a TD today or shortly thereafter it won't be because of shearing imo, it'll be because it can't find an llc, though the system is considerably more organized with more solid convection over the the core of the circulation and evidenced by spiral banding actually aided by the ULL's ventilating the system. QScatt already has shown some surface winds of 30 knts. And, the anticyclone is actually out in front of the system's nwesterly movement, keeping the shear from the TUTT axis at bay in the present - that could certainly change as this systems continues to move westnorthwesterly.

I've seen considerably worse looking systems named TD and even TS.

Recon is not scheduled until tomorrow and the NHC may be waiting for those results and to see how it handles stability between the diurnals before declaring it a TD.



SUNDAY, Aug 30.

94L has put on some decent new convectionn over the coc during the past 24 hours. The anticyclone above the system is mostly hanging with the circulation, but any movement more northwards there is 20-30 knts of shear and could hinder development. In the present, that may be acting to help ventilate the system's northeast side. However, there is very little shear to the northwest and west in the present and further development is likely, although shear is forecast to increase later, further to the northwest. Pressure is down to 1007 and the whole system is moving west at about 15 mph. Expect a gradual, but steady strengthening over the next 24 hours. .

72-HOUR sfc forecast
TWO
North Atlantic Discussion
WIND SHEAR
Shear Tendency
LATEST STEERING CURRENTS
Latest SFC Map


Organization, however, is still a bit problematic. The tilted cycloncic flow still has a deep-layered moisture maximum associated with it, but the feature is less pronounced today, at least at the surface. Lower level convergence has improved but rests mostly on the system's south side. Upper divergence is adequate, but the tropical engine is still having trouble getting fuel from the surface to create sufficient lift and vertical stability, most likely due to the deep-layer moisture maximum, elongated within the flow to the neast of the coc and some light shearing overhead.

That feature embedded within the whole cyclonic flow associated with 94L is likely the main reason some of the dynamic model's track guidance have shown a more northwards path. A couple of models imo, LBAR and BAMD, have iniated their track sequence near the coc more accurately. BAMM has also shifted to that track guidance as well - all now suggesting a wnwesterly path towards the northern Antilles. BAMS is coming more in line with that guidance and the other models have shifted somewhat further west as well.

None of the models, imo, have accurately grasped 94L's coc. The more northerly projected path by some of the models is more than likely associated with the tilt from within the cyclonic flow and less likely because of the system feeling any troughing weakness north of the system imo - the system is too weak and too far away to be latching on to any weakness just yet. If the system does not organize further the coc could drift more northwards within that tilted flow, expect the models to shift more northwards. If lower level convergence remains weak or even improves and the system gains better vertical stability where it is, then I expect the present southern outlier tracks to be more accurate and the tilted flow would slightly exaggerate the movement more west with the present steering. At this time, I suspect that or a blend of that to be the case -those southern outliers have been fairly consistent.



It seems fairly obvious to me that the models do no yet have a clear grasp of 94L's coc although the system is getting better organized. The dynamic models initialize the coc further east and the statistical models further west. The GFDL (and, it's spin-off HWRF) do not do well in the cyclo phase. Although the coc is offically at about 11.8n,47.5w, I see the center further west, closer to 12n,48w. Additionally, the coc could be sliding, reforming - perhaps, getting more vertical best describes it, possibly further north within this tilted system. Until 94L gets more organized, the models will continue to interpret a variety of initializations and subsequent tracks.

Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to have to wait too long and the models will begin to initialize the coc more accurately as 94L becomes more organized.



It would not surprise me to see the coc relocate further north within this broad, elongated and tilted cyclonic flow. I think that's why there is still considerable differences in the margins between the models. Again, I cannot climb on board with the GFDL as it has continously proven its unreliability during cyclogenesis, but I am a big fan of the GFDL once a system is completely organized, up and running.



Again, the current steering flow does not suggest any substantial movement northwards. In the present, if the coc slides northwards at all, or reforms further north, it will be because of the tilt in the cylonic flow. The easterly steering flow would suggest a more westwards movement in either case, but would move the track further north if the center relocates. Getting a fixed position on the coc at the surface will be paramount for the models accurately initializing . With present course and steering, the islands could be within the strike zone.

In the present, I see the coc further west than even the official coordinates, out near 48w nearer where the most intense t'storm activity is located. However, there is clearly rotation further north as well within this problematic flow. While this system is better organized than last evening, it is still struggling to gain vertical stability over the coc. For that reason I think most of the models should not be heavily depended on in the present. Until the system becomes more organized an accurate track will be difficult to discern.

For now, I'm sticking with which models runs have had less track error and have been more consistent - LBAR and BAMD. However, I will add that BAMS is usually a good guide with weaker systems and I should watch it more closely, though it too has been cycling further west towards LBAR and BAMD.

94L could finally be seeing the benefits of some warmer waters - that may tell the tale. When she gets her act together, track will be more conclusive. Right now, it's a stab in the dark with many variables still dependent. I have to go with what I see - and, right now, I still see a fairly weak, but growing system that lacks vertical stability in a westerly steering flow. Certainly, the nAntilles should be concerned and watch it closely. If the southern outliers' tracks hold true, then 94L's eventual path will be contingent on the eConus trough exiting the coast line within a few days. A stronger system by then would feel that weakness and likely pulled more northwards. Will it be eventually be a fish? Let's hope so, but unless 94L gets substantially stronger anytime soon, or if the coc doesn't slide or relocate more north within that heavily tilted cyclonic flow, an islands hit and a conus landfalling storm is entirely possible, depending on the timing of the econus-exiting trough later on in the week. More than likely this system will be dubbed "Erika" sometimes late Monday or early Tuesday.



Elsewhere, I think it's worthwhile to keep an eye on the GOM with any cut-offs from the troughs, etc. The GOM is ripe for development with high SSTs. Additionally, there is another wave behind 94L that could develop and a huge system exiting the African coast. Either could develop and God forbid if either should find the quiet Caribbean - TCHP is high and the waters have been unstirred this season.

ALSO, let's not forget our neighbors in Baja, Mexico - Jimena has turned into a major threat.



We're reaching the peak of the 2009 Hurricane Season on September 10th, so, there is more than 1/2 the season remaining - a longs ways to go yet; and, things are definitely heating up! Hopefully, through awareness and preparedness there will be little injury and loss of life. Even the threat of a storm causes much anxiety for many. Despite all the damage that may occur to property, injury can be prevented and lives can be saved.

Get a plan, if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss plans with them. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination. Exchange plans, numbers and destinations. Ask others to pass the idea around.

Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of peoples lives.

You can make a difference! "Awareness, Preparedness and Safety" should be the game plan! Your comments and suggestions are welcome. PLEASE, feel free to still comment on politics and other news happenings in addition to the weather.

MLCgoodnight4.gif

MLC <----------------says, "Thanks in advance and have a good one!"


BLOG RULES: Simple - Keep it absolutely civil towards fellow bloggers. And, don't get heavy on the partisanship - it's quite obvious that corrupt, petty, inept, greedy, power-lustful politicians are plentiful on both sides of the aisle. It's ok to take jabs at them - either party, any official or candidate; but, leave the total "blame game" out of this - it's ALL of them, everyone! If you think otherwise, then you probably don't want to bring it in here! Informational and news statements (not weather related - PLEASE FOLLOW OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ADVISORIES!) in this blog by me are generally backed by valid and usually corroberating links. Newcomers are welcome to this blog but are scrutinized more heavily until I discern the nature of their posting habits. Regulars have more leeway even with large and differing opinions, provided their posts are not made with any personal attack or similar innuendo. Otherwise, those who have not proven themselves to me (and that's all that matters) may be considered pot-stirrers, trolls or ban circumventors and are subject to being banned without warning. The ban may be relieved at anytime at my discretion pending review of the blogger's posting history and perspective in other blogs - should I see them. This is an adult blog for the maturely vested, not a juvenile hall or playground. Adults who act like young, irresponsible children will be asked to leave or be banned - all others are VERY WELCOME! :)

visitor stats
Photobucket



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Model Performance Statistics for AL942009

Average Error (nautical miles) for models

(Trend	24hr Error
LBAR INCREASING 121.1
BAMM INCREASING 147.6
BAMD INCREASING 156.3
BAMS INCREASING 178.2
GFDL INCREASING 191.9
HWRF DECREASING 207.5
NGPS INCREASING 254.4)
What is this?

WEATHER!

MY EYES




(great blog MLC)
LOL, Lat - THANKS, but not feeling very political with the tropics heating up!

We can still post the mess happening in this country though; and, the good things, too!











I have posted the two above WV loops to illustrate what I believe is a SERIOUS situation currently taking shape with 94L. Please note in these two loops that there is a train of ULL tracking west across the Atlantic. One is directly north of 94L, and is currently doing a great job of ventilating 94L. The second ULL of note is the one currently north of Hispaniola... This second ULL is moving quickly towards the west, and getting further away from 94L, allowing an anto cyclone to develop over 94L.

What I find to be disturbing is the OVERALL upper level steering pattern that is illustrated by the track of these two ULLs. EAST to WEST! The ULL to the WNW of 94L indicates to me that 94L is going to follow in that general direction, towards the southern Bahamas... There is going to be enough spacing between these two ULL, and 94L to allow some tremendous outflow patterns... In other words, a MAJOR hurricane in the making!!!
GR, I see your point. Thanks. Let's hope not! Certainly, SSTs will be very favorable, but I'm not so sure yet about shear! This system is having a heckuva time gaining any vertical stability.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
GR, I see your point. Thanks. Let's hope not! Certainly, SSTs will be very favorable, but I'm not so sure yet about shear! This system is having a heckuva time gaining any vertical stability.



The shear size of the circulation is actually slowing the development, until now... IMO, my friend, that is about to change...
It did nicely last evening through to dmax, and I suspect it will enjoy the same night time lift over warm waters. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in the a.m.
It did this same thing, if memory serves me, last evening about this time - convection looked scattered and the whole system disorganized. Until, the tilt in that cyclonic flow gets more perpendicular and/or past the coc, 94L is gonna have a hard time getting symmetrical. Obviously, the models are having a rough time initializing the coc and it may be because of the titled cyclonic flow or multiple vortices spinning up.
Glad to have your thoughts here...
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Glad to have your thoughts here...


Thanks, ajcamsmom, it's in venerable break from the politics. There are several more good bloggers here with substantially better weather skills than myself, but I have always enjoyed following these storms. Cyclogenesis is simply intriguing, but the aftermath is dreadful - unless, they are fish of course and we all wish for fish! :)
I just hope nothing gets into the GOM anytime soon. My son broke his foot in P.E. class Friday and it looks like he will need surgery to fix it. Can't do that if I am running from a storm...
Photobucket

Let's hope this is the case! ;)
12. Yikes - that hurts me reading it! Oh, man! I hope the GOM is okay. Right now, it is looking like it could possibly effect the islands, maybe the ecoast somewhere depending on the troughing and timing. But, hey, it's weather - anything can happen! Have a plan, just in case - that's always a good idea!
MLC:

AS a new poster I want to thank you for providing a forum in which I can absorb knowledge not otherwise available. In addition, I find your forecasts to be easy on the eyes; meaning, I can generally follow and pick things up as I go along, without too much difficulty.

GR--your anxiety is noted regarding a major hurricane in the making, however, is it your position that 94 will slide underneath/by these anomalies and into the GOM? That's the interpretation I got anyway. MLC, obviously your input is appreciated also.

Thx
Hi, a non vertical cyclonic flow(ie:tilted flow) will not explosively intensify. That is a very inefficient structure for rapid intensification. That should relieve some people....

Hope all is good MLC and GR!
I am trying to get my son an appointment with a specialist tomorrow...Hopefully, they can do the surgery right away...He is in a lot of pain...Not good at all...
quasigeostropic...No relief here...The weaker the storm, the more likely it will go WEST
Quoting Herbertsbox:
MLC:

AS a new poster I want to thank you for providing a forum in which I can absorb knowledge not otherwise available. In addition, I find your forecasts to be easy on the eyes; meaning, I can generally follow and pick things up as I go along, without too much difficulty.

GR--your anxiety is noted regarding a major hurricane in the making, however, is it your position that 94 will slide through these anomalies and into the GOM? That's the interpretation I got anyway. MLC, obviously your input is appreciated also.

Thx



No, ATT I am making no predictions that this system will make it into the GOM... I put the odds of that happening at 25% or less... I am waiting to see if that blocking high develops off the Carolina coast in the coming days...

Quoting ajcamsmom2:
quasigeostropic...No relief here...The weaker the storm, the more likely it will go WEST



That was going to be my question!!! LOL
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
quasigeostropic...No relief here...The weaker the storm, the more likely it will go WEST


I meant for the near term there wont be anything to worry about. This system wont explosively develop for some time. Will have to wait and see where it ends up.

Sorry to hear about your son. I will keep him in my prayers=)
- Herbert, thank you. I'm just an ol' duff that follows these systems - have for years. But, that doesn't mean I know what I'm talking about - I don't, just a novice here, that's all. Glad you enjoy the blog, but please, do follow the official forecasts and advisories - they are the professionals.

- Alex, good to see you, pal. Now, Herbert, Alex is one of the professional guys. Only recently graduated from met school. And, he has an informative blog. You should check it out. Yes, nothing explosive happening in the present, but this one does have me concerned. Hope all is well with you, friend. Looks like the tropics, though late, are gonna come at us with a vengence before it's over!

- Ajacamsmom, great. I hope he can get it fixed quickly and on the road to healing soon! In the meantime, may I suggest lots of ice cream? Speaking of - I'm about to go and have some myself!
GR,

and if it does, do you think it prevents a more northern track?

Pardon the rudimentary questions, I just want to be sure I am accurately interpreting what it is you are saying.
Thank you moon. As you probably know, Im a bit busy this season, and wont have time to track much tropical weather this season. If there is one that becomes dangerous and threatens the mainland, I'll try and make it on a little more. Good to see you and others stepping up! You are learning much!=)
Quoting Herbertsbox:
GR,

and if it does, do you think it prevents a more northern track?

Pardon the rudimentary questions, I just want to be sure I am accurately interpreting what it is you are saying.



the future track is going to come down to whether that persistent trough is still there off the EC, or has been replaced by a blocking high, which could force Erika eventually into Florida, and possibly GOM... We will have a very good idea of where this is eventually going in the next 72 hours for sure...
I'll be back in about 30 min....
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Thank you moon. As you probably know, Im a bit busy this season, and wont have time to track much tropical weather this season. If there is one that becomes dangerous and threatens the mainland, I'll try and make it on a little more. Good to see you and others stepping up! You are learning much!=)


All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy! But, I understand, I have been hooked up myself! And, thank you, but yes, I'm still learning - still lots to learn. But, I do find it very interesting. If things heat up, you better show up! ;)

Question, what's your take on the models getting a good fix on the coc?
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2009

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...Special features...

An active tropical wave extends from 18n45w to 8n49w with an
associated 1007 mb surface low center near 11n48w. The wave is
moving W near 15 kt
. Satellite imagery indicates elongated
cyclonic flow in the vicinity of the wave axis concentrated
around the low center. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is mainly to the NW of the wave axis from 14n-18n
between 47w-49w..and to the W of low center from 8n-14n between
48w-54w. This system has a high chance...greater than 50
percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs.
Moon, as expected, when a disorganized system has an inefficient coc, the models will not initialize properly. Therefore short range track will still be accurate(using other tools like jetstream analysis and satellite) but long range will be a bit more complex. Look "upstream" the jetstream flow and see how it is evolving with time.

Problem is, track forecasting is also very much contingent on intensity. Since intensity is problematic, so will the forecast be for the long term.
Excellent GR
I like to use the jetstream analysis page to interpret the setup.

If anyone needs to review anything related to "jetsteam mechanics" that is one of the tutorials...
Thank you, Alex. Makes sense to me! And, I will check that out also - I've been following some of the 200mb streamlines already this season. Again, thanks.
No prob moon.....Im going to head off now....Nice to see you again! Keep up the good work! I can definitely see you gaining lots of knowledge on here!

It's my belief that information should be FREE....Catch ya laters=)


Lower level convergence is almost neal - same as last evening. Something is telling me this coc is more at the mid-levels than at the surface.

MLC <------------going to check QS descending pass.


Whoa! QS does show a small sfc circulation, but further west, 11n,51w, with west winds clearly visible. But, it almost looks like it's competing with another area neast of the coc that is trying to form - no west winds there, though, that I can see.
A bat sees better than the models!
One of my fav loops. Even can eyeball the Epac bowling ball :)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Link
LBAR, BAMM remain fairly constant over the northern islands. Each model between these two time periods have shifted more west. Two (unknown to me) statistical models are now showing a swest motion - I wouldn't count on them too much really. But, LBAR and BAMM have changed little in the track guidance over 24 hours.

Photobucket

Last night

Photobucket

Tonight
MLC I agree that the last QS is very interesting, and may throw I monkey wrench at the northcasters in the short run...
AVNI is old name for the current GFS model...
Hey, CB and Oss. Oss, thanks for the loop. That is a good one - taking a bit to load though. :)

- GR, yup, the coc is clearly more swest than neast at this time.

The only spaghetti hanging more northerly is the CLP5 which isn't a model at all, but rather an indicator of where storms have gone before on average from that position.
Oh, yeah, Oss - the whole, big picture! AWESOME!
Lots of influences going on to the north in the loop. Flux might be a good word :)
The storm is very round and concentric now! Its lower level winds near the surface are counter clockwise and the top of the storm winds are clockwise. It is very easy to see on the satellite loops.
Oss, that loop is telling me that the eConus trough is not going to be as strong or deep I don't think.
21. quasigeostropic 6:58 PM CDT on August 30, 2009
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
quasigeostropic...No relief here...The weaker the storm, the more likely it will go WEST


I meant for the near term there wont be anything to worry about. This system wont explosively develop for some time. Will have to wait and see where it ends up.

Sorry to hear about your son. I will keep him in my prayers=)

Thanks prayers are always welcome and much appreciated..:)


22. moonlightcowboy 7:01 PM CDT on August 30, 2009
- Ajacamsmom, great. I hope he can get it fixed quickly and on the road to healing soon! In the meantime, may I suggest lots of ice cream? Speaking of - I'm about to go and have some myself...
Hope you got to enjoy your ice cream...I bought my boy several kinds of Edy's yesterday...He loves the stuff...
Hello ajsmom.... Sorry to here about your son... My teenage son had surgery on his broken hand last summer...

As to Eddy's ice cream, THAT IS THE BEST ice cream around these days!!!
GetReal...Now, I am thinking about eating a bit myself...I have been eating nothing but junk all day...tons of it...I'm stressed, but, back to reality in the morning...Hope your son did well with his surgery.
Here we go - coc, about 11n, 49w



LINK for a bigger view.
Severe TS over the NOLA area.... PLENTY LIGHTENING!!! Just developed right over us....
No competing LLC there MLC... I would hve prefered that center further north, in order to wrong about what I believe is to occur.
I knew if I kept digging I'd find it, GR. Then, I remembered the 85ghz scatt from the Navy. The IR and the Scatt are two different times and overlayed, but both recent. I can never get used to the time conversions.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Oss, that loop is telling me that the eConus trough is not going to be as strong or deep I don't think.



MLC, I am not a met, but I see much in the way of dynamics that I have not seen in many (20) years of being a watcher. We have diggers, tappers and nothing in the way of surecasting in our near term. My novice opinion is we see nothing definitive until 2 days out at this point.

It may be my direct detachement from the science, but I don't recall so many fronts pushing so far south in the recent or distant past? Curb feelers if you will. Pun intended.

What influence does the Epac storm have right now on the Conus? Sweeping outflow into the GOM?
According the the Navy's 85ghz scatt, the coc would be about 11n, 49w. That's pretty much confirmation that there is only one llc and it is further south and west of what the models have been trying to initialize imo.
Quoting Ossqss:



MLC, I am not a met, but I see much in the way of dynamics that I have not seen in many (20) years of being a watcher. We have diggers, tappers and nothing in the way of surecasting in our near term. My novice opinion is we see nothing definitive until 2 days out at this point.

It may be my direct detachement from the science, but I don't recall so many fronts pushing so far south in the recent or distant past? Curb feelers if you will. Pun intended.

What influence does the Epac storm have right now on the Conus? Sweeping outflow into the GOM?


Oss, I agree with your summation. These diving fronts are, imo, usually more indicative of late Sept or Oct. I was just talking about the ePacific storm a bit ago. It seems it is generating an awfult lot of swesterly to neasterly flow in the present - my think is that (according to your loop) that it may serve to weaken the exiting eConus trough and it will not dig as deep, possibly, to create a strong, deep weakness to grab 94L and take it out to sea.

Now, take that and four bits and you still can't buy a decent cup of coffee! ;)
Thanks, VortMax1969 - I have listend to every word in that vid. It still makes perfect sense today and should be aired over and over in the medias!
Do not fret...that circulation will form North!

I think we can chunk the models out the window until 94L becomes substantially better organized and vertically stable. None of them are initializing the coc from that position, skewing each's track further north. I think this whole tilted, cyclonic flow has them a bit confused - I know it has had me confused. Honestly, I can't remember ever having studied one quite so bizarre during cyclogenesis. Pretty strange - and, that concerns me, too.



The dynamic models now coming generally more west??? 0000z runs just out....
62. GetReal 9:43 PM CDT on August 30, 2009
Unfortunately, we knew that would happen
Photobucket

Late Sunday 0000

Photobucket

Saturday 1200
I thought I heard LBAR had got it correct?
I hope not!
Hows the ankle AJCM?
Quoting spathy:
I thought I heard LBAR had got it correct?
I hope not!


The models are for crap right now, spathy, imo. None of them are initializing at the llc confirmed just earlier this evening at about 11n,49w. The models are initializing the system considerably northeast of there.

Granted, this is a very broad low, tilted cyclonic flow. And, though revving up through last night a bit, the system has deteriorated through the afternoon and evening. Weak systems can be prone to relocate their coc's and the axis on this wave the feature is embedded in has become more vertical or perpendicular than much earlier. It may, if you will, sort of "slingshot" the coc further north as the tilt of the wave moves in a westerly direction.

This MIMIC loop may better serve to demonstrate what I've just mentioned.



But, right now, I can only go on what I see - and that is an llc at about 11n,49w which is a bit further south than where the models are initializing the coc.

94L did well last evening and was able to get considerable convection over the center. We'll have to see what she does tonight. I'm guessing that since she's over 29 degree waters, she'll take advantage of the night time lift and generate some more convection. What I'm looking for in this system is some low level convergence (been essentially none) to get the tropical engine running. Divergence is no problem at all - the ULL is helping vent the system quite well, perhaps too well, keeping convection scattered away from wrapping around a developing center and keeping it from getting vertical.

Until then, I think we could still see models all over the place.
MLC
Understand and agree until there is a reasonably constant stronger coc models will continue to be wild.
1007mb
126N-483W

Latest Track Error

Model Error Trend 24hr Error
LBAR DECREASING 30.6
BAMD DECREASING 59.4
BAMM DECREASING 32.3
BAMS DECREASING 68.4
HWRF INCREASING 120.1
NGPS DECREASING 139.2



I find this water vapor loop most interesting... The large ULL that yesterday was north of 94L; this morning it is to the NNW of 94L in an even better position to ventilate the system. 94L has also developed a dense core that is now working in its' favor.
Yup, GR, 94L is getting some good vertical lift and stability now - convergence must be further improving as we speak (type). LOL. I expect with this improvement it will be labeled a TD by the next report.
Happy Monday - LoL


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/mpsatwnd_image.asp?storm_identifier=AL942009&m psatwnd_filename=2009AL94_MPSATWND_200908311200






http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/mpsatwnd_image.asp?storm_identifier=AL942009&m psatwnd_filename=2009AL94_MPSATWND_200908311200
G'morning, Oss. Thanks. Looks like a storm is brewing. If it can keep that anticyclone overhead it has a chance.
Mornin MLC -- just in case someone wants it. Here is the NDBC link. It can help sometimes ~~~

Back to the salt mines for me, L8R

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

National Data Buoy Center
If the NHC doesn't declare it a TD today or shortly thereafter it won't be because of shearing imo, it'll be because it can't find an llc, though the system is considerably more organized with more solid convection over the the core of the circulation and evidenced by spiral banding actually aided by the ULL's ventilating the system. QScatt already has shown some surface winds of 30 knts. And, the anticyclone is actually out in front of the system's nwesterly movement, keeping the shear from the TUTT axis at bay in the present - that could certainly change as this system continues to move westnorthwesterly.

I've seen considerably worse looking systems named TD and even TS.

Recon is not scheduled until tomorrow and the NHC may be waiting for those results and to see how it handles stability between the diurnals before declaring it a TD.
Definately looks like it's trying to tighten up that LLcirculation.

Happy Monday! :)
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
...from the 8:05 TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N54W...ABOUT 500 MILES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE AREA COINCIDES WITH BROAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MAXIMUM VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW BASED ON
CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
51W-54W...FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 48W-53W...AND FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 58W-59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 15 KT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


94L is getting some really good tops over the core now - I see no reason why this storm should not be upgraded to TD status!
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
94L is getting some really good tops over the core now - I see no reason why this storm should not be upgraded to TD status!


Strength by purple,, blue and -- spot? - :]




Spot keeps changing every 15 min., LoL
There is no reason 94L should not be classified as a TD right now with those kind of bursting cloud tops. This storm would not be producing those kind of cloud bursts at those heights without the tropical engine working, creating lift! There is a defined LLC right now pumping moisture in the atmosphere - I don't think that can be argued. The only thing I can think of is that since this has been a complex invest, embedded in that broad, cyclonic flow earlier that they were waiting for the recon flight data tomorrow. This looks more like a TS, but I haven't looked at the wind data - and those winds may not be there to support that for sure, but there should be no doubt if fits TD criteria.
Working my way through all this, MLC - thanks for the updates.
This is what you call a "technical gliche!"

Defined: gliche - A minor malfunction, mishap, or technical problem; a snag, a small problem that stops something from working properly

This very broad area of low pressure within the whole tilted cyclonic flow has created problems for the models and sat data, apparently. Glitches happen sometimes - systems will reboot, reinitialize and begin working properly again.

Although I'm not criticizing the models, but I do think we rely too heavily upon them sometimes. Too much forcing - just use your eyes and good discernment - use the tools, but use some good judgement as well.
Hey, Linda. 94L has been both very challenging and interesting to follow through in the genesis process. I think it's had everyone, including the models and the NHC confused somewhat.

They will get a handle on it, eventually.
Nearly 400 sq miles of convection? Yeah, there is an llc - a good one. No other way to generate that kind of lift from the surface.
You were right...it was a duck!!! LOL!
What's up MLC? Time for a header change:-) We have Erika. And unlike Bill and Danny, I do not believe this one will be feeling the eastward swift kick in the ass:-)
Quoting nash28:
What's up MLC? Time for a header change:-) We have Erika. And unlike Bill and Danny, I do not believe this one will be feeling the eastward swift kick in the ass:-)


Yup, time for shange! I will say this, right away, I am not rooting for shear at this time!
Hey BUSY cowboy! Just a quick hello as I'll be a busy girl today.

Hope all is well. :)
Turns out I won't be so busy due to some unexpected, yet good news!

I told Gamma yesterday, my gut said look out PR, Bahamas, loopty loo and ECTLFL. Jeanne ring a bell? Just an initial gut observation. We'll see how it plays out with the LLC reorganizing.
Just a thought, too - imo, the shearing being observed has less to do with the tutt axis now further north away from the area of convection and considerably more due to the tilt of the wave's convection converging, collapsing or colliding (pick one) within itself as the wave's tilt becomes more nwesterly to seasterly. Think of it sort of like an ocean wave crashing againt a rocky shore - it creates a big splash of water and wind. Well, something like that. ;)
Erika is no longer a fish.....and Obama is no longer a moderate.
Quoting MachoNachoSupreme:
...and Obama is no longer a moderate.


Who ever called him a moderate? ;P Not I!
can we say dissipate?

crosses fingers, crosses toes
crosses eyes above the nose
lucky goat bones,
chicken feather..

DISSIPATE!!
to all bad weather.
Photobucket

What's really very surprising, imo, is that the GFDL is now the southern outlier.
...from the 8:05 TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 03/0000 UTC TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N
62.0W OR JUST W OF GUADELOUPE. ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN
THE W AND WSW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WWD NEAR 9 KT.
ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. ERIKA BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL
STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT...AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 57W-63W ALREADY AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.


Well, it seems the NHC is finally getting some things right. ;P They are now seeing the wsw movement. As far as weakening, I guess that depends on one's interpretation of which llc, if any or either, is driving this sytem. The Caribbean llc that was exposed earlier this afternoon is now putting on convection, getting stronger. "Effecting" the Lessor Antilles? I guess that would be correct if one consider's the convective llc as the one driving this sytem. Certainly, the islands will be getting wet and feeling, probably, some northerly winds. The Caribben llc would have "already" (as in past tense) effected the islands since it is now in the Caribbean.
Triplets? Oh, lawd - I've gotta quit lookin' at swirls. The CMC is latched on to a vigorous vortice neast of the convection out around 57w.



We're watching some very unique tropical events unfolding - none like I've ever seen before and unfortunately, looks like it could be one for the history books.

It does now appear that the convection is collapsing and/or splitting witin the wave axis as it tilts further westwards on the northern end nw to se. Part of that convection is now over or has engulfed the previously exposed, but strengthening Caribbeann llc. Additionally, now, there is a vigorous llc located northeast of the tilting wave at about 57w. The only model seeing this is the CMC.

The main convective area seems to have split with a northern component west of the exposed neastern llc; and, a convective area further south that has engulfed the eCaribbean llc. So, it would not surprise me, right now, if there are three competing low level vortices.

Again, UGH! What a hulluva tropical system!
"Gyre" huh? I like that word - short and easier to type than elongated, tilted cyclonic flow.

Whew! Needed that new word! ;P

But, I am still not in any "Hispaniola" camp at this time. The low level steering in the eCarib suggests a wsw and westwards movement. Additionally, as the "gyre" continues to move east to west, it will exxagerate or propel this system further west as there will be no substantial coriolis or any upper level steering anywhere in the vicinity that could influence a more northerly component to that movement. Now, if the other vorticities - the mid-level one that was ejected neast of the gyre, or the upper vorticity in the separated convection on the north end of the gyre finds a way to rebuild itself to the surface and strengthens (in this collapsing, colliding mess); then, that could possibly be more influenced more northerly. But, I really don't expect that to happen. I think the area to watch now is in the Caribbean as the true llc has the closest access to the fuel at the surface and has now gotten part of the lower separated convection back overhead. Another thing to note, a significant anticyclone is back over that part of the system and any shearing will have little effect on this Caribbean llc strengthening.
I'd also say it's a good possibilty that the separated convection will reconnect over the llc as the gyre tilts more nw to se unless the northern component of the convection feels any northerly influence from the reatreating troughiness north of the system. If they indeed reconnect and probably will, Erika will fairly quickly again, gain some vertical stability and strengthen - but the general motion will be more westwards into the Caribbean imo.

I'm gonna go way out on a limb here (don't like to do this) and say that fish is out, neConus is likely out and the FL west coast has become a potential target for some kind of eventual landfall of this system. Sorry, wild guessing ranting speculation over!

A doozie? Absodayumlutely!
Good morning, all.

One thing Erika is not this morning is - dead; and, it's not dissipating either. There is some shear further west in the central Caribbean and some shear further northwards over the system. I see the NHC is calling the motion wnw - sorry, I don't see it that way, not at all. The tilt of the gyre westwards is being "mistaken" as a northerly motion component imo. It is not moving northwards - there is nothing to move it northwards. The low level steering is still the easterly flow; and, the gyre is still tilting to the west, so the general motion will still be mostly west.

Additionally, there is an anticyclone overhead just west of the system and will rebuff shear in the area. Dissipating? Nope. I mean it's the Caribbean, right? It's a hotbed for development - high SSTs and high TCHP. There is some shear further west, but right now the Caribbean is ripe to promote development. Erika will continue to strengthen and move generally westwards.
Good morning MLC! Whew, I had a headache from staring at swirls on visual yesterday! Learned a lot from tracking Erika thus far! Thanks for your thoughts, I don't feel confident enough in my ability to even try forecasting this one anymore! I'm just soaking it in. lol

The north and south convective areas reconnected through the night as the gyre continued to move west. The system is now trying to rebuild vertical stability between the lower circulation and the upper circulation. You can still the see the exposed mid-level vortice to the neast of the system that was ejected from the circulation late last night as a result of the gyre reaching its maximum northerly motion and basically collapsing or colliding the air and moisture into itself.

IR and visibles support the system is beginning to regenerate higher tops which would imply that the system is beginning to get some vertical stability again.
G'morning, HG! I felt that way too, but it was truly amazing to watch this gyre collapse into itself last evening and eject the llc west and the mid-level center neast. Then, the convective areas split and then reconnected. Unreal show this girl has put on.

Yes, it's been a very complex and interesting system. I don't think anyone really knows what she's going to do yet.
main bloggers have her dead..... I just ain't buying it.....I still think her survival instinct is strong... her Gemini-like personality is not to be underestimated..... hope she's not eyeballing my HOT Tub (GOM)
is "someone" dinking with this storm??? like tweaking it??? you got to wonder

She's a tenacious one - I know the type -- this girl ain't going to bed early
I don't think we have seen the last of Erika either....lets hope though that she goes poof or could be bad news.
Have you met my niece surfmom? She lives in Sarasota! LOL

Erika's lost her anticyclone it appears, but the shear is still marginal 15-20kts. Will have a tough time through DMIN later today if she doesn't get her act together. I'm VERY suprised to see that ridge build in as strong as it did.
Yesterday, at a Health Care Reform Rally in Thousands Oaks, Calif, a 65 year old man against it hit a worker with MoveOn.com....the worker then bit off the 65 year old man's pinkie finger....

my question is this: Will ObamaCare reattach the finger?

( just a joke, guys.....no, it really did happen...that's not the joke part...unfortunately...)
No real changes in the 2:00 except it confirms the llc is further southwest. A movement more west or really southwest of the llc is about what I have been seeing with this grye mess tilting back to the west. That trend will continue until the wave levels out and we will have to see if the llc can gain any real vertical stability and self-autonomy or that which allows other atmospheric conditions for steering to influence it. Until then, its track and intensity will be very restricted to the conditions within the westerly moving gyre.

All that sounds so stupid, really; but, that's what it is I think.
MLC - I've been lurking for years and am new to posting on here. I don't think we see eye to eye on politics, but I have enjoyed your comments over the last few years on Dr. Masters' blog. I'm a meteorologist, but have learned quite a bit from your insightful posts. Please keep it up.
home girl --- who knows.....how old?? maybe my boyz?

checking in on Erika...... I'm with you Conchy...Eyes wide open
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
No real changes in the 2:00 except it confirms the llc is further southwest. A movement more west or really southwest of the llc is about what I have been seeing with this grye mess tilting back to the west. That trend will continue until the wave levels out and we will have to see if the llc can gain any real vertical stability and self-autonomy or that which allows other atmospheric conditions for steering to influence it. Until then, its track and intensity will be very restricted to the conditions within the westerly moving gyre.

All that sounds so stupid, really; but, that's what it is I think.


Not Stupid... why I came back here to check.
I speculated this system would move further west being embedded within the tilted, cyclonic flow. What I didn't count on was the collapsing, colliding moisture within the flow to expell the low, mid-level and upper vorticities. But, I watched it happen last night as this gyre's axis peaked northerly. It was quite a spectacle. I guessed that we would see the llc pushed further west, but I also thought it might retain some of the convective structure, but I was wrong there; and, I suppose that was mostly due to the mid-level circulation being pushed east away from the system, leaving the llc disjointed from the upper level circulation and moiture. If the westward-moving llc is still intact, though naked, after the wave levels out; then, it will be interesting to see what the environmental conditions are and how or if this system can regenerate any convection. At this point, whether it dissipates or manages to restrengthen, one unequivocal conclusion can be drawn, imo - it won't be a fish.

Now, it looks like, once again the gyre, while continuing its tilt west, has again pushed out the llc and it is exposed, void of convection. At this point, I think we're beginning to see the wave level out or move past the llc at some point and it will finally be on its own to withstand the elements further west in the Caribbean.



Sorry, folks - I've only been in and out today, but thanks for stopping by and for the comments. This one has been a doozie to follow for sure!
I think we're getting another surprise as we speak - are my swirlin'-watchin', foolin' eyes deceiving me, or are we watching another vortice try to form and become the dominate feature in the northern area of the convection very near the islands? Whoa! This one just never quits with the surprises.



Now, this would mean that the coc is further east! Geeesh! Now, is it on the backside of the tilting gyre? I've to go look.



It looks like we may be seeing a new coc develop back further east within the trailing convection in the gyre at about 62w - somewhere within the center of this heavy convection in the above graphic. Meanwhile, the original and official llc is racing off to the west further out at about 66w.

Again, the dynamics are about to all change. UGH!
I'm beginning to think this one has 9 lives!

((( MLC ))) Had to stop by and leave a 'hey there!'. Saw that LLC pop out from under the convection earlier...*wonders if something'll spin up from that...things that make ya go hmmmmmm*
If mine eyes aren't deceiving me, I believe something might be popping up from that naked swirl to the SE of PR in the latest images. NW of the comvection.
Oh and I see an ULL is over E Cuba, moving to the N, which Erika might start to follow?
Hey, Baja and HG! Yup, could be - nothing surprises me really anymore with this system!

Ericka is looking like history but Dr. Master's comment about a new wave coming off Africa is of concern. I swear, there's more to concern me right now that I seem to have brain power to dwell on. LOL

and what do you think about the Texas law saying they should have the right to forcibly drag people out of harms way for their own good? If they tried to separate me from my family of cats and dogs, then they better come armed to the teeth. If they can't go, I won't go either. Yes, I'm insane. I admit it. I own it. I wouldn't live any other way. Heck, there has to be some of us around or else life would be pretty boring. :)

Have a good one MLC. :)
Quoting catfuraplenty:
Ericka is looking like history but Dr. Master's comment about a new wave coming off Africa is of concern. I swear, there's more to concern me right now that I seem to have brain power to dwell on. LOL

and what do you think about the Texas law saying they should have the right to forcibly drag people out of harms way for their own good? If they tried to separate me from my family of cats and dogs, then they better come armed to the teeth. If they can't go, I won't go either. Yes, I'm insane. I admit it. I own it. I wouldn't live any other way. Heck, there has to be some of us around or else life would be pretty boring. :)

Have a good one MLC. :)


Catfur! Long time no see! And, you're dayumed right - almost too much going on to possibly fathom, much less comprehend! Good to see ya! And, I agree with your sentiments.
Howdy, I am still a student of fluid dynamics, but this Erika has done some very strange things. I have seen a pattern, not that it means anything, of her stepping into the Carib, one step at at time. Low levels move forward and the other separated vort, follows. I must be mistaken, but it has had how many relocations now and keeps moving westward.

Now the LLC has moved forward again and gains convection and the mid is behind again. Like a tilted tornado.

Large loop and interesting environment around things. Please understand, if I knew what the heck I was looking at with certainty, I would not be posting anything~ LoL

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced 12

The loop link seems to time out, sorry bout that. Could be the packer change ?

Just an observation. Seems like Erika likes to Rock! L8R




These guys could make a "big time" Rogaine ad :)


yUP, I'm back again -- I swear sometimes it's like a storm really has a Lifeforce (she wants to survive).....defies the
rules, the computer models...

a bit humbling to see that with ALL THE TOYS - a TS can out fox the best.....(humm I take that back... you've been figuring her game quite well)

as Ossqss says -- it's like she's got a date in the Carib she doesn't want anyone to know about.

Quoting surfmom:
yUP, I'm back again -- I swear sometimes it's like a storm really has a Lifeforce within.....defies the
rules, the computer models...

a bit humbling to see that with ALL THE TOYS - a TS can out fox the best.....(humm I take that back... you've been figuring her game quite well)

as Ossqss says -- it's like she's got a date in the Carib she doesn't want anyone to know about.

that is funny SM....she must have a blind date....don't think she is done yet!
Quoting conchygirl:
that is funny SM....she must have a blind date....don't think she is done yet!
Well, I was wrong - she is gone....no more advisories for Erika!
Quoting conchygirl:
Well, I was wrong - she is gone....no more advisories for Erika!


From your Lips to Erika's To Do list...... I'm still watching the accessories she left behind....

she's a tough cookie and wanted TO BE.
she managed to taunt the computer models & as Dr. J said defied them

She might get dressed up again if she's got a date in the Carib.

We can only hope that Mister Dry Air & Mister Shear ruin her plans
Ha, who needs Bill Gates money and technology, all I gotta do is comment on a storm and it dies -- LoL
Good morning, all.

Erika is trying to make a comeback and looks fairly impressive considering, but there is an awful lot of shear west of her, though it relaxes for a bit first somewhat, and would likely obliterate it. Now, would there be any energy left? Who knows with this one? It has been a mystery a minute!


LOL, Oss!
At some point, as this weak energy approaches land, it could actually serve as a shear buffer, possibly giving Erika some time to wait for more condusive conditions within the guidance.

She's bleeding profusely, but she ain't dead just quite yet.
So now we have 95L....