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CAT 5 Dean to hit Yucatan

By: moonlightcowboy, 3:45 PM GMT on August 14, 2007

IMPORTANT TROPICAL NOTICE! I wanted this blog to first address awareness, preparedness and safety! These things are important NOW, not when landfall is a couple of hours away! I hope you'll see it that way, too, and click on the two links below. Please take time to review them and I believe it will be very helpful.

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CLICK ON THIS LINK...you'll be glad you did! http://www.redcross.org/beredcrossready


Hopefully, through "awareness and preparedness" there will be little injury and loss of life. Even the threat of a storm causes much anxiety for many. That, in itself is destructive, even without a landfall! Despite all the damage that may occur to property, let's all hope that we're doing what we can to help prevent harm and death to people in harm's way.

Get a plan, if you don't have one! Take it seriously. Develop a plan for yourself. Have a plan "B" and be ready to execute them. Talk with your neighbors. Call your friends and relatives and discuss it with them if you can. Remember the elderly, indigent and handicapped. Remind them all of safety precautions and evacuation plans. Have a destination and a second possible destination.

Exchange plans, numbers and destinations. Ask others to pass the "safety" word around. Of course, local authorities will be the best resource for information and action plans. Listen to them and encourage others to listen as well. Visit Patrap's Blog, a great guy who believes in promoting preparedness and safety. Also, another good one is Hurricanecrab's Blog. These small efforts can have a large effect on the safety of peoples lives. You can make a difference!

The Tropical Weather Discussion from the NHC is a great place to start to get solid information. It basically, "tells it like it is" without all the hubbup!

HURRICANE DEAN (WU quick links) is out in the wCaribbean traveling west and is NOW a MAJOR CAT 5 hurricane at it approaches the Yucatan peninsula!


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gifThe 24-HOUR Surface Forecast Map: Dean is an intense CAT 5 hurricane and likely to cause sweeping damage across the peninsula, re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche as a strong hurricane. Then, Dean is likely to intensify again to major hurricane status before making a second landfall on the Mexico mainland. NOTICE: new NAVY INVEST 92L at 24n,60.5w moving wnw. Some development is possible, but it's fairly disorganized, but will be interesting to see how convection may build through the night.

Missing

LATEST STEERING CURRENTS - Dean is still being driven west by the ridging high over the se conus. Dean will come ashore somewhere north of Chetumal as a CAT 5 storm with a huge storm surge upwards of over 30 feet.


GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP


HURRICANE DEAN, now a strong CAT 5 hurricane is expected to make landfall early Tuesday morning on the Yucatan coastline. Dean's center is now at about 18n,85w. Speed is near 20 mph with sustained winds recorded at near 160 mph at the surface and gusting near 180 mph. Surface pressure has dropped to 915 mb and reportedly has tied Hurricane Janet of 1955 as the 10th strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007230ca.jpg


CURRENT TCHP VALUES:
Dean's CAT 5 status is likely caused by the high TCHP values in the nwCaribbean and may intensify further before landfall. The Caribbean's and GOM's hot temps, TCHP and loop eddys are fuel for rapid and dangerous intensification. (TCHP and SST's in the Caribbean and GOM)


models

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I left this up for this blog, because WU shows the GFDL as a featured model on the their site. IMPROVING THE INITIALIZATION OF HURRICANE-OCEAN MODELS - as related to TCHP, is a technical, but interesting read about how the GFDL is being used to improve hurricane intensity prediction in the GOM.


"Looks like the gates to the fort are open now!"

MLCgoodnight4.gif

Drop back in! Things are gonna get rough somewhere, unfortunately. "Awareness, preparedness and safety" is everything!
Your comments and suggestions are welcome. Thanks in advance!
Have a good one!

MLC


PS: Don't forget to check out Tropical Lagniappe for some great links to other blogs and websites from fellow WU members! There's some great info here and I always learn something each time I visit them!


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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Evenin moonlight,
masters blog seems to be getting a little to hecktic...lol
I'll check back in later to see what your thoughts are.
till then, keep on doing that voodo that you do so well.
NP
Moonlight good evening. I have a question...how did you tabascolize that picture of SST's? What software?
Thanks, NP, appreciate your visit. Stop back by this evening, will try to mix it up with you a little.

What's your take on the tropics, now? Especially TD05? TIA
ND, nothing fancy, just Paint. Thanks, I think it tabascolized me! lol
Good morning, everyone. Things will likely heat up even more today!

Stay cool in this hot weather and do stop by and leave your comments and criticisms. Catch up with you soon.
Hey MLCB! I'm afraid some of the oldies from 2005 that are just now popping back in are going to get banned from chit chatting on the Dr.s blog, I can't seem to get them to read the rules.

Sigh, it's a shame it has come to this.
Yeah, you're prolly right. It's moving really fast, and there have already been several bans. Admin has made it fairly clear, not to post pics, but links, etc....

Keep watching, make sure you have a plan! Thanks for stopping by.
hiya moonlight... where are you located? I'm sure you posted already but things were moving so fast i had trouble keeping up. definitely watching dean close and getting ready to prepare
I was living near Laurel when Katrina came through. Have since moved a bit further north near Meridian. And you?
picayune ms. LOL i'm not on the coast or anything just far enough inland to lose power and have roof damamge .
What's up Cowboy?

Kind of brutal on Master's blog these days.
Dean looks to be a MAJOR!

I thought he was a Colonel..

Moonlightcowboy, Should I call you Moon, Light, Cowboy??

You have put together a great and informative blog! Thank you... Living along the Panhandle of Florida we always are keeping an eye on the tropics. Appreciate you!
What is that smell Cowboy?
Yeah, Hipdeep...it's hectic in there. But, I understand why, too. People are scared and want info. Newbies who want answers, and I try to help if I can. Plus, the whole blog is swaying back and forth trying to get a nail on the right spot, too.

Yeah, thanks for shouting...looks like we might have a monster again. A lot will ride on the the trough movement this weekend, I think.

---smell? lol --- that's a little thing I do sometimes when the season is not too busy to lighten the blog. I'm not likely to do it right now of course, but you'll get to see soon. Kind of funny, kind of stupid! lol
Hiya Cowboy,

You probably don't know me, but I have a fair idea of you, me being a terminal lurker on JM's blog LOL! You have good preparedness and other info here. Would you mind if I put a link to your blog in mine?
lol, MisterPerfect, not sure about a Colonel, but I think Dean is gonna be a "major" pain in the ***!
Hurricanecrab, I think that'd be great. Thanks!

I read in Selu's blog (I think) that hotels were already booked up north of Hattiesburg in MS. Most MSippians don't have to be told, especially post Katrina. But, thanks, for helping promote "awareness, preparedness and safety!"

Thanks, TONS for your efforts, too! And, I'm looking at your blog, like it, will look at it closer tonight as well, and add you to this one.

Again, thanks!
Thank you too ;o)

That's a rerun of my first blog here from Aug. of 2005. Appreciate your sensible manner and good info on the main blog.

cheers
osted By: Beachfoxx at 8:16 PM GMT on August 15, 2007.
Moonlightcowboy, Should I call you Moon, Light, Cowboy??


...lol, MLC is just fine Beachfoxx, or most anything...just as long as you call me! lol
So far, only CAT 3 Status is forecasted, and also it's forecasted to pass the USA to the south.
That will change dramatically when Dean gets into the Caribbean, not to mention if it makes it to the nw Caribbean.

Thanks for stopping by and commenting! A lot can still happen!
Hey MLC!! And the wait/weight begins...

Have a good day!
Good Job on the Bob show!!!
Thanks! Catawife!
HEY MLC - guess I followed you on the Barometer Bob show LOL
Nice blog -

My blog is dedicated to helping
the disabled during storms.

Night!
Hi MLC
this might be a double post
I followed you on the Barometer Bob show

My blog is dedicated to helping
the disabled during storms

Nice blog here.

Thanks
^^^
Thank You for all your help.
hey MLC, you were right, very acurate forecast, i just called my sis in cancun to tell her, and she said they are allready getting radio advaisories, from the goverment officials. great job man.
Emmyrose - Yeah, you did a good job on the BB show as well. God bless your efforts to help! Thanks.

Raysfan70 - We're all in this together. These things are bad at best, horrible at worst!

Gabby - Thanks! Long ways to go still. Can and Coz all need to be prepared. I do think there's a possible turn a couple of degrees north at 70w. We'll have to see. Remember, this is about awareness, preparedness and safety.
Why thank you sir as you can see I was not prepared for that ...I was innocently eatin dinner...than on the radio :-)

Thanks MLC for reporting what is happening this year, right now...LOL
But it really is serious!!!
They say your memory is the second thing to go...I can't remember what the first thing is! LOL

Soggy Bottom Boys: A man of constant sorrow

LMAO, yeah, that's it!
35. Selu
Hi, MC! Great blog!

http://www.funmunch.com/graphics/happy_weekend/graphics/happy_weekend_1.gif
Hey, Selu!

...now I gotta watch the dayum ull dropping further south! I'm getting confused...tired, too, but gonna figure it out!

Your blog was great! Save it for the archives!!!!

Good afternoon MLC. This is looking better and better for us and worse for Tx./Mex.
Yeah, agree. But, I'm wondering what will happen after the eye-wall replacement cycle. It's likely to slow, but larger and maybe more susceptible to slight changes in the steering currents. Just a thought!
I agree with the EWR cycle. Could get interesting.
argh SL -
Hey-Emma, SL!

Things may be changing! GOM is not out of this yet, I don't think!
Is the grill ready yet???
No, not quite, but I'm gettin up NOW, LOL! You coming? lol
what do they say it ain't over until the fat lady sings? Is dean fat? does he sing?
oh more questions to ponder over this...
i know sunday will be the key day huh?
Emmy, Dean's not even tuning up!
Sorry I missed it, what was on the menu? I had leftovers...
but I hear his roar already :-(
Oh my the ladies are in a gossip mode.lol
LOL something to break the craziness I reckon
A full sail and good trade will solve the issue.lol
lol, everyone!

http://www.realnegril.com/

live show with Rob there, having a good time on the west end, but you can tell everyone will be leaving, anticipating the storm. Hope they're all safe. Been there several times. Some good folks there!
Gossip!! Who you accusing of gossip Sand! LOL
Hey, Sandcrab! Thanks for stopping by! Hey, SL, we know how you ladies like to talk!!! lol
You 2 are going to get in trouble!!!! LOL
lol, SL...been on the negril site, giving them the wu update...they are soooo happy Dean may be missing them! In fact, they're having quite a good time!
I hope we can have a "hurricane NOT party"!!! Magee is a central location for all the Miss. folks!!!
I've posted twice in here and the blog hole ate them........
Negril chat room is a pretty cool site! Thanks!
You're welcome! Great place there! Sure hope they will all be safe!
Alright, big party in Magee!!!! Time and date is all we need? I'll bring the beer!
Me too, I love that little piece of paradise! And the good people there.
where the heck is Magee?
Thanks for the information...I will check back later...
Just south of Jackson!
oh sure...have the party close to you! not fair!

Just kidding! :)
We'll figure something out! lol
"Looks like the gates to the fort are open!"

MLCgoodnight4.gif

Drop back in! Things are gonna get rough today for our friends down in the Caribbean! Have a good one!
MLC <-------------out for some shut-eye!
Have you seen this?
Dean as seen from the space shuttle.
Good Morning {{cowboy}}.
Have a Great Sunday. :-)


Hello Moonlightcowboy -I like that name.
so I type the whole name out.
Good morning, Emmy and Raysfan! Hope you have a nice Sunday, too!
Cowboy, I saw your post re: links and sites on Dr. M's blog. You might find Crown Weather a useful site to recommend to newbies. Rob gathers up maps, loops, advisories, webcams, all kinds of stuff and puts it all together in one spot.

I have a good couple of dozen sites (if not more) I peruse during the season and, though I use WU and the NHC, GOES,the model runs, etc, the most, I still pop in at Crown to see what Rob has added. I found a lot of my links between his site and the discussions here on WU.
Posted By: palmettobug53 at 12:40 AM

Thanks, Palmetto! Big help!
about 5% of the wishcasts (er, forecasts) I've seen on here have been correct in the last 5 days.
Understand, wishcheck. Some just post possibilities, others blind guesses. It is weather, a not-exact science. lol
MLCgoodnight4.gif

Well, thankfully, it appears Jamaica missed the brunt of Dean. I know they'll have problems, but it could have been much worse. A good day, considering! Remember, "awareness, preparedness and safety" is everything!
Your comments and suggestions are always welcome. Thanks in advance! Have a good one!


MLC <--------------out for some shut-eye!

Good Morning {{cowboy}}!

Yo MLC - sweet dreams.
Good Morning {{Cowboy}}.

:-)
Hey MLC

Looks like Dean, hasn't cause any cooling in the SSTs(In the caribbean)yet...LOL
Good Morning {{Cowboy}}.


Thank You for all your help here and in Dr.Master's Blog.
Now this is what I call TEAMWORK!! LOL

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