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94L, some dry air, but will develop....

By: moonlightcowboy, 3:03 AM GMT on August 27, 2007

94L is on its way! I don't think it'll cross the islands as strong as Dean, and I also think it'll find a more northerly track before the high pushes back in. But, it sure looks like we're going to get another named storm, probably Gabrielle, if 96L becomes Felix later this evening or tomorrow.

Latest NAVY MicroVAP. This TWP shot shows that there is more moisture available than is immediately seen. Look at the "dark" areas now around 94L which means that the storm has become better organized, producing more moisture and creating a better development environment.

Here's the current view of water vapor at the mid levels from the cimss. It's gaining a little momentum in development because there's more moisture available to the system than immediately visible. While 94L is getting some dry/dusty air entrainment, it continues slowly strengthen and track westwards with better development conditions. It's also more likely to make more of a wnw turn as it becomes stronger.

94L is more likely to enter the eCarib as a TD or a weak TS. On development: faster and stronger = more northerly, while slower and weaker = more westwards. Still low development for sure, right now; but, I still believe it will become a named storm, probably Gabrielle if 96L becomes Felix later this evening, or tomorrow.

Another look at dry, stable air. While there is dry aire you can see that area wnw of 94L that is clearing the way for more favorable development conditions for 94L.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif48 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST MAP The low between the Gulf high and the Atlantic high is a key player right now (IMHO) getting stronger, stretching deeper southwards. Any development, though slow, would still likely track like Dean with the high being slower to build back in, and taking a more wnw turn after passing through the islands. I don't look for any real strengthening until it gets closer to the islands, and at this time more than likely somewhere just south of Dean's track. That, however, is likely to change to a more northerly track, especially if the high doesn't build back in as strong like it did with Dean.

The image “http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
72 HOUR SURFACE FORECAST MAP SFC map shows 94L as a possible tropical cyclone after it enters the eCarib. Of course, things can change in the tropics on a dime. Lots of things going on right now and the wave in the eATL looks to be serious, too.

Tropical - GOES-East IR 4 Floater
Tropical Latest Image - GOES-East IR 4 Floater #1

[GOES-12 14 km WV]
RAMSDIS 14 km Water Vapor


The TCHP values are still high in the nw Caribbean away from Dean's track. In fact, the nw and nCarib waters may have gotten a little warmer and extended its stretch up to the Yucatan channel. So, while Dean did some damage as Doc Master's points out in his current blog, there is still a great deal of hot waters and high TCHP in the eCarib and the GOM, too.



There are several links to SAL, but EUMETSAT is my favorite. For me it shows a more true, actual view of the dust which is in pink. The links also show airmass and fog. These views appear to be "dimensional" and while SAL mostly occurs at the surface or low levels, if you'll take a look, it also shows orange and red, depicting a look at mid and upper level convection. For me this is a good first way to look at the layers of any developing CV storm.

EUMETSAT (dust angle 1)
EUMETSAT (dust angle 2)
REAL-TIME SAL satellite imagery for tracking can be found here, too.

Latest Surface Map

The National Buoy Center
850mb Vorticity
Wind Shear
24hr shear tendency
GOM/Caribbean Sea Surface Temps
Latest TWO
Latest NHC Tropical Weather Discussion


Here's the current view of water vapor at the mid levels from the cimss.

Latest Infrared Shortwave in the eATL


"Awareness, preparedness and safety" is everything!
Your comments and suggestions are welcome. Thanks in advance! Have a good one!


PS: Don't forget to check out Tropical Lagniappe for some great links to other blogs and websites from fellow WU members! There's some great info here and I always learn something each time I visit them!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hope everyone had a great weekend! Thanks for participating in a fun way on what I'd hoped was a harmless, fun blog! It was fun. Cheers!

...now, back to the tropics, as things appear to be more favorable for development this week!

Hope all have a great Monday and a great week!
Thanks, MLC
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 7:46 PM GST on August 26, 2007.
Good job, Laura!

Thank you, Cowboy!!! Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
You're welcome, Laura! Great news piece, enjoyed the whole program. I thought you did an excellent job-very poised and informative!
Well, I just wanted more than anything to be constructive with my comments while getting people to THINK about the long-term when they think about re-building New Orleans.......why NOT north of the Lake.......that's where the future IS!!!
hello aubie!!
Great posts, cowboy............always liked a good map/chart! How you doin'g Aubie?
Hey, Aubbie! Hope you've had a good weekend!

Laura, for sure, a long-term plan is in order, and certainly a short-term one as well. It's a tall order, but your points were very valid!

---everyone, pardon the blog please, while I get it updated, etc...
yes we had fun - and nobody done got hurt - told you MLC - it's that dancing banana and high jinx of fun ....

have a wonderful week. nice parrot.
Weekend's over...Thanks for the fun!!!
I hope the tropics stay QUIET!!!
I never show on the maps...I dont exist...LOL
Emmy, I'm a "parrothead" at heart, you know! - a real Buffet fan!

...always take time for the parrots. A friend has one named Lucy, just melts at the sound of my voice! lol

--yeah, S'lady! I know your weekend started shaky, but got SOLID! WTG, Grandma!
dancing banana and high jinx of fun

so I am in the right place!! Yipeee
woohoo parrotheads always know one another!!!
lol, CAT, I think you must be the pivot of fun! Still, got to hear that Duck Butt Fridays story sometimes!
oh she's the pivot all right LOL
Grandma! I'm loving that name more and more! LOL
Thanks for keeping us updated on the tropics, and just having fun on the weekends when they are quiet!!!
hey I represent that remark!!
hey that's my line - you stole it from me
{{{CAT}}}....evenin' ladies!
hehehehe, sneaky CAT here
Hi {{{Laura}}} so proud of you!!
oh look the star!
yes, Cowboy, nice parrot.....where's yer horse????????
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at PhotobucketThank you ALL!!!
Sorry I missed it Laura...will it be archived?
lol, all the hosses in the barn...(under the hood-'bout 300 of 'em)!
hee hee how wonderful it is to be in the light of such an amazing STAR....hee hee wish I were that lucky LMAWAO
(under the hood-'bout 300 of 'em)!....ha ha ha ha!!!!!

SL....don't know if it will be archived. It was a feed from 3 different cities, so not likely. I will be sent a DVD dub of the whole show though, so that's nice for family overseas who missed it.
Great. It needs to be archived on WU for posterity for sure!
You can post it on youtube Laura...When you get the dub...
SL....will definitely post to youtube!
Purrrrrrr ♥♥♥♥
When doc?send me an email when you do...I feel so bad I missed it
Aubbie, she did great!
hehehehehehehe...all the classy pretty ladies are on here tonight...
MLC...we are soooo lucky....
Aubie, David said "hello!"
night y'all
sweet dreams
mlc you can talk to me.
I'll post it on youtube when the studio sends me my "dub"........y'all can look at it then......for laughs!!LOL
Nite sweet EMMY!!!! LOVE to you!!!!!!
Hello MR.David...How are ya?are you ready to be an UNCLE???
Emms..sweet dreams...wuv ya ♥♥♥♥
wuv ya too buddy♥
Have a good sleep, Emmy! Will do...great to have a parrothead on board! lol
yep and not afraid to party either....
Nite Emmy!!!

Auburn, he is SO excited!!!
Emmy = party!!!
SL, will this be the first grandchild??
Yes Laura!!!
SOOOOOOOO EXCITING FOR YOU!!!! Congratulations!!! I don't have any yet, and looks like it won't be soon either :(
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 10:56 PM CDT on August 26, 2007.
SOOOOOOOO EXCITING FOR YOU!!!! Congratulations!!! I don't have any yet, and looks like it won't be soon either :(

Me either......I need someone to call me Papa
...nothing like babies!

...forgive me if I'm not jumping in quickly, trying to update some links, etc...
I am gone to bed all...sweet one to you all...♥♥♥
Nite....Papa!!!! :)
Have a good sleep, Aub.
you are forgiven Cowboy! HA Thanks for all the great links.
I'm gonna hit the hay too...Still on cloud 900 or so!!! LOL Dreaming of sweet grandbabies..

G'nite all!!!
Sweet dreams, Grandma!
Nite SL......sweet grandbaby dreams!!!
Well, Cowboy, this cowGIRL is headed for the barn! Thanks for your comments, your support and your LINKS!!!! Nice chatting with you.
Laura, same here! Check your blog before you hit the hay!
ooops pardon my manners..I forgot to say goodnight!
Nite CAT, sweetie...you have a good sleep and a great week!
Good Morning {{Cowboy}}.

Have A Marvelous Monday. :-)
69. OGal
Seek Codes
MySpace  Graphics
MySpace Graphics

Eyes are looking toward the east. Watchin those waves. Thanks for the updates.
lol, SL, U2!
Hey MLC!! What the heck are you doing back here!!!
Good Evening {{Cowboy}}.

Coming by to say Hello to you. Hope that you have a Good Evening.
We'll still keep you company!!! Keep updating the tropics blog!!!
lol, I'll get a roundtuit...think I'm gonna go watch some Gunsmoke for a lil while.

...see ya'll on Thursday!
I'm in the jailhouse now...I'm in the jailhouse now....isn't there an ol' Hank song about that? Well, that's okay, I guess...I've had hangovers that lasted longer than a week! lol

...well, lil harmless fun was too much, I reckon; so, til someone bails me out, guess I'll just serve my time!

...keep an eye on the tropics, things are heating back up! See ya'll Thursday! Send letters, send pictures...sho do miss beuns home! lol

...send lawyers, guns and money!

Hey, CAT...know any Warren Zevon? lol
gosh I had to dig to find ya!
...yeah, they got me down in that Tulsa hole!
Hey, CAT...know any Warren Zevon? lol

I stay away from creatures of the night! lol

Except for Emmy!
...LMAO, LowCal, thanks! Got a good laugh on that one, great movie, too!

I'll be watching, trying to at least! lol
Warren Zevon?

oops I thought he did the music for werewolves in london...my I feel so dumb! LOL

It's Emmy's fault!
LMAO, CAT, he does that, too!
okay so I will stop telling Emmy that she is a dumb bunny now! LOL

BTW she says HI!!!
Tell, Emmy, had to walk the plank!

...shivers me timbers!
will do! Arrrrrrg
I just hung up from her, but I am sure I will hear from her again tonight!
...lol, call her back, tell her to visit Rum Boogie's on Beale!

she is in Arkansas now, so she has missed her chance.
MF = Moral Fiber!
God bless Steve Goodman!

stay away from these people while your in here!!

lmao, CAT! Jackson's Thriller was kick aswsome...partied like a sumbeach to it back in the day!
She has a song called "Tear(tare)Me Apart" that's okay, too!
G'nite, sweetie CAT, thanks for keeping me company!

...think I'll just stay out for a few days, busy anyways...sure was fun with the music! T H A N K S!

...have a good sleep!

MLC<----------out for some shut-eye!
Good Morning {{Cowboy}}!
I've got a real busy morning going myself, so I don't have time to do the greetings thing to all my friends...But since your 'in prison', I thought I'd send a hello and something you requested for a chuckle...LOL

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Have a good day!!!
MLC...man tie this rope to them bars and lets get you out of here...we can hold up in the doghouse till the heat is down on ya man...I told you about drinkin and bloggin...but did you listen?NOOOOOOO...now your in solitary for BUI...I tried to make bail for ya...but it was a no go...Take care man...now everyone grab that rope and PULLLLLLLLLLL
LOL, Aub and SL...too funny!
Your welcome to blog in the Doghouse anytime MLC
Have a good afternoon MLC!!!

I had a very busy morning, then my daughter drove up from Hattisburg, she couldn't stand it anymore, LOL, had to have "girl talk" with Momma about babies, ect...We have a great relationship, and I enjoyed every minute of it!!!

I see Auburn is trying to 'spring ya!' LOL
Better watch that redneck!!!
Dude...a little grape juice for ye thru the brigs
Head em up move em out RAWHIDE
You all could have waited for ME. :-(
Cowboy Mouth- Here I Sit in Prison
Sorry, best one I could find!

mlc, whats that stuff coming out the ctl america area?
...FREE at last, FREE at last! lol

Thanks, Rays!!!...apparently there is some sunshine, today!
Plywood, do you mean into the Carib, off the Honduran coast, or north of Panama?
south of the honduran coast. appears to be somewhat along the coast in the pacific and extends into the western carib.
woohoo now I can be advised when it rains in Houston LOL

glad to see your back ....
...good convection there, but close proximity to land, part of it's over land. If convection remains, gets northward into the BOC, or in the far nwCarib, something could possibly happen...especially if the high stays in place over the northern GOM.

....shoot, these tropics are getting busy! We'll need to watch it all.

...HEY, EMMY...good to be back! Thanks!
Hey 'cowboy!!! Who 'sprang' ya?! LOL

Good to have you back!
was about to send my ghost ship out after ye...

have a good one!
SL, it was an anonymous donor I believe. I'm sure I'm indebted to someone! lol, thanks!

EMMY, send that ship anyways...let's sail! lol
consider it done.....

HOwdy {{Cowboy}}.
Good to see you. :-)

Sunshine warms the heart.
Hey MLC...either one of these invest gonna end up in the GOM?
Hey, AUB, sure could be! Was just talking to Plywoodnative and he gave an added interesting scenario: He expects the wave to develop off of S. Carolina become Felix because of the gulfstream waters and favorable shear environment.

And, the thought is that 94L will develop, but it's got some problems developing with dry air hanging around. His "interesting point" was the possibility of 95L blocking 94L from going more north and instead shove it towards Florida. Good point. That 95L area is trending south, and that blob helping to feed it over Hispaniola seems almost stationary.

...lots of action going on now...plenty of things to watch!

--RAYS, it SURE DOES, thanks!
welcome back!
Hey, CAT...yep jailbird is now a freebird! lol, thanks!
well its raining here in Houston AGAIN.
Hi MLC. Good bloggage. I really like that you discuss other folk's ideas here. Looking at things from other people's points of view, often helps us broaden our own minds, and learn more.

I didn't even think about the interaction between 94L and 95L. I wonder how many people have even considered it. Thanks for keeping an open mind!

Sand, thanks! I have been hooked up today, man! In a few when I get settled in a bit, I'm gonna re-visit your post from last night. I think you are right on target! TTYS.
sand is we sailin or not?
Thanks, Aquak9! Yeah, not the type to just declare my theory is the only one that counts...lol. I know that's why I'm here-to learn and share! The tropics are exciting, dreadful and all rolled up in one big dilemma!
Good Morning {{Cowboy}}
Morning Cowboy

Save this card.

LMAO, good morning, EMMY! Thanks for the "ticket" --prolly come in handy!

---G'morning, Rays! Ya'll have a sweet, sweet Thursday!

I'm awake, its sunny, its warm, i've had my first pot of coffeeand I have all my chores done for the day. Nothing to do but kick back and relax. Ah life is good.

Hope you have a terrific thersday

Take care and be safe

Sebastian & Leopold wishing you a GREAT Day!

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LOL, You know I HAD to stay up until I finish the darn thing!!!

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Howdy there cowboy!
Afternoon Cowboy

Sunny and very warm here today. I figure in about another hour I'll be well done.
Hope you and yours are well.
Enjoy the rest of your day.
Take care and be safe.

"TRASH"!!! Geez, what a mess already!!! LOL
I am NOT on clean up crew.
ME neither!!! LOL
that leaves auburn.
Sounds good to me Emmy!!! Although he sure leaves the doghouse in a mess!
well....they can be matching blogs.
153. LLJ
Nice! I have been tracked again!

Was that an idea that Charles had Cowboy? Put an IP tracker on your blog?
Get rid of that man.