Ike to Strike

By: mcmurray02, 8:23 AM GMT on September 11, 2008

Here's what I'll be discussing on Ike: 1. It's intensity forecast, now and at landfall.2. Projected Path3. Impact's on TexasFirst, the intensity. It seems that as of this writing the NHC is torn between whether Ike will intensify greatly, or whether it will weaken. Here's what they are saying:HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920081100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW L...

Updated: 5:56 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

Post Gustav Discussion and a super busy Atlantic

By: mcmurray02, 7:44 AM GMT on September 03, 2008

{Original post from 9/3/08}First, now that I'm back for my first update since Fay, let's talk about Gustav. Gustav was the big storm that didn't. That's not to downplay those have have suffered on the coast, its just to say that we we're right on the fine line between, just another 'cane and major disaster. So, why didn't Gustav not become the super disaster that just seemed inevitable on Sunday morning? The quick answer to that is dry air entrenchment. Sure, there ...

Updated: 5:11 AM GMT on September 11, 2008

What's next for Fay?

By: mcmurray02, 2:29 AM GMT on August 21, 2008

Well after an interesting turn of events (track model shifting and intensity surprises,) its time to take a look at where I think Fay will go to next. I think Fay will head west, go up to Alabama, maybe Mississippi do a loop-de-loop as it hooks up with the low that’s currently giving us rain here in North Texas. While there, I think it'll dump lots of flooding rains and then it'll head on east, finally heading up the eastern seaboard, and off to the polar belts. I...

Fay Saturday Morning

By: mcmurray02, 9:21 PM GMT on August 16, 2008

Well, this morning there are some interesting looking satellite images of Fay. A lot of folks are confused about why the NHC has placed the center of circulation north of what most people consider the center. Take a look at this and see what you think:I captured this frame right as the sun began to rise to allow the shadows of the storm clouds to be visible. As you'll see, there is a large plume of a very symmetrical circular south of the center that appears to have...

Updated: 6:36 AM GMT on August 17, 2008

What a differece a Fay makes - post for Friday evening.

By: mcmurray02, 8:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2008

Well, a day after giving an analysis on Thursday over what has now become Fay, it looks like all of the models have shifted to the west. When Fay was upgraded to a named storm, it skipped straight into a tropical storm. This doesn't surprise me, as this is not too uncommon. What was interesting is that at the time that it was named, it was officially over land in the southern area of the Dominican Republic. Also, while over land at its second advisory, it's wind fie...

Updated: 9:48 PM GMT on August 16, 2008

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Forecasting the Forecasts

About mcmurray02

This is going to focus (1) North Texas weather (2) Tropical Weather and (3) forecasting the forecasts.

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