Synoptic/Tropical Weather Update: October 2nd 2012

By: louisianaboy444 , 11:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

Brief Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Nadine is still a churning in the Atlantic ocean. The numbers as of 5PM call it a tropical storm with 60mph winds. It is currently located at 34.4N 36.7W moving eastward. This means that the mid-latitude westerlies have finally captured this system and are bringing it to its demise.

Invest 96L

A strong tropical disturbance in the Central Atlantic located around 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has garnered the attention of the National Hurricane Center. The NHC gives this system a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours. An upper level anticyclone has formed over the system which is helping the storm have decent outflow on its northeastern quadrant.

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This GOES floater image shows the decent outflow of the storm on the northeastern quadrant with a squashed appearance on its western flank. This could be attributed to stiff southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts just ahead of the system.

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This wind shear analysis from the CIMSS data page shows the band of 30-40 kt shear. The culprit is a upper-level trough moving over the Northern Atlantic. This trough has amplified thanks in part to a big dome of high pressure that has developed off the Eastern seaboard.

This water vapor imagery shows our synoptic features nicely.

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You can clearly see the trough on the eastern side of the image. Following the upper level flow from the GOES Visible satellite, one can clearly see the direction Invest 96L will be steered. This long-wave trough is expected to lift this system out pretty quickly.
Dry air is also present over the Gulf of Mexico. This dry air is associated with shortwave ridging located over the Eastern Pacific. The anticyclonic motion of the ridge off the east coast coupled with cyclonic flow from a longwave trough located across Eastern Texas is creating a very potent jet max in the southeastern U.S. helping to usher in this dry air.

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This 250mb contour plot courtesy of UCAR shows this situation quite nicely, although this analysis was from 1200 UTC this morning. Because of this the Gulf of Mexico should be closed for business for some time. With the amount of mid-latitude westerlies starting to penetrate the gulf it is looking likely that the Gulf of Mexico season could be coming to a close in the next couple of weeks.

Water Vapor imagery depicting the dry air

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700mb analysis courtesy of UCAR depicts a shortwave near Louisiana but precipitation is not expected with drier air moving into the area. 850mb analysis also shows the low pressure associated with this weekend's storm has moved into the Ohio valley. With minimum forcing on its upper level energy, this storm system will be slow to move out but most models show the east coast clearing out over the next 24 hours.

This is my first analysis in awhile so forgive me for being rusty.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:34 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
louisianaboy444 has created a new entry.
2. stormwatcherCI
11:16 PM GMT on October 02, 2012
Good job Trevor !
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1. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:14 PM GMT on October 02, 2012
Typically it's Forecaster [Last Name]. =P

Thanks for the nice blog, Trevor.
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