WunderBlog Archive » Juslivn

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Cool Chicago Heating up Tomorrow

By: juslivn, 2:40 PM GMT on May 26, 2011

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5-04-2011








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Thurs June 2: 55 degrees and really cooled off. Chance of rain or thunder. Then we get some of that moisture back and tomorrow heats up to 93.
Storm chasers are on their way today to North Dakota, South Dakota. Western MN seems to be in that area of slight chance of severe as well.
Also, just a hairline of West Central IL is in the 'Slight' risk area, and much of IL and surrounding in the 'chance of Thunderstorms' zone.
Prayers up for Mass and anywhere hit by tornadoes yesterday.



Memorial Day: It is finally sunny and already 80 degrees here in Northern IL. Will be out and about, so please follow on the severe maps if MN or IA/WI goes severe later today. Don't know I'll be able to be here later. We are right on the edge of the severe today, but chances increase tomorrow.

Well, let's try this again, new blog and out with the storms. It's windy and cold here today (Thurs), but the weather is on its way in the right direction come tomorrow. Memorial Day, we could see 80! Going to try to get some nice pics of more pleasant things, like flowers and the gardens. May get out on the water, but with gas prices, we still haven't decided to put the boat in. May just go and 'sit' by the water ;) Have a great weekend everyone!








Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

'Chillin with the Blues Brothers' (Downtown Rock Island, IL statues)
img src="Photobucket">

Rock Island Park Fountain (By the bank of the Mississippi. A very nice Levee Park) Do not know who the little girl is, but she was just having so much fun and looked sooo carefree! Ahhhh....
img src="Photobucket">

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Glad you made it through the storms OK, as did I. Isn't the water really cold still up there in the lake? 80 doesn't seem warm enough yet.
Enjoy the sunshine, once the clouds move away!
Hi Ylee, the water in Lake Michigan is very cold, lol. But I would not go in except maybe my toes. We will stay around here on the Chain O' Lakes. I should hook you up with the web cam from the Government's Fox Waterway Agency site. Sometimes, you wouldn't believe all the boats on the Chain O' Lakes!

Glad you had no damage or troubles during the storms, too. Thanks for stopping in. Have a great weekend!
I can't access the Chain O' Lakes website here at work,(No gov or mil in the URL) but I'll have to check them out when I'm home sometime. Thanks!
Oh, and BTW, I can almost smell your new avatar from here! :)
Enjoyed the little peak at Rock Island. Both shots are fun ones.

We had a couple of short cloudbursts here yesterday, so gotta let the garden dry out a day or two before playing in the dirt again. Did you get yours all planted yet?
Hi {{{Jus}}} ~

Hope you get some rest and relaxation in, along with better, calmer, warmer weather, throughout the remainder of the week and upcoming holiday weekend! I'm sure, by now, you could use a much needed respite from all the apocalyptic storms!

Thought you could use a little amusement injected in your day, so I created Molly meditating in her Zen spot. It seems fitting considering that she's taken an avatar break today. LOL!

Hope you and yours remain well and safe!

Mass!!! That is awesome! ROTF! My son and dau 2 (wandering gypsy) are going to LOVE that! I hope you don't mind if I snag it for Facebook. Tooooo creative and funny.

Hi Briarcraft, I did get it in, but nothing has come up yet and 2 tomatoes broke in the winds, even though they were tied well. I hope the roots took. Peppers look a little worse for wear too. We did get our grape vines in. They are huge old grape vines from my MIL who is putting up a carport and had to move them. I owe you a note and have not forgotten. Too cold and windy today so no playing in the dirt for me either. Have to clean up this house this afternoon, so I can play all weekend. Hope you get some good sun to dry out!

Calming down a bit. However, for no reason some song in the car just made me cry...all of a sudden, like a release?? Mourning for all, I guess. Much Zen time needed. I want to get back in my car and drive to Joplin, or just to Indiana and can't. Someday, when we retire (young I hope) we will be involved in some manner to help.

So aside from the fact I woke up this morning thinking it was Friday,and the heartbreak when I realized it wasn't,today is a beautiful late spring day with temps up close to 80 and a warm summery weekend ahead.And that dog certainly knows where my mind is at.
That's a disappointment! Well, I am soooo glad you guys are finally warm! Hope you are able to fire up the grill and relax. You accomplished a lot this winter/spring on the basement and all. The real Friday will feel wonderful when it's done, lol.

We are thinkin...thinkin...It's .25 cent WING NIGHT TONIGHT! I'm actually looking forward to it. I am going to try not to partake in the cheap beer however since it is Thursday ;) After all tomorrow is half price pizza and $1.00 (big cups) summer shanty's.
Good one Mass.Roflmbo :)
Well, it happened. I had to warn family in PA and NY to be careful of Tornadoes. They are gonna think I'm nuts! But it's TRUE!

Hi Mush!!!

Sheesh...I need a freakin down coat out here! It's soooo cold!
Here is a fox to keep you warm.Frost alert up here tonight.
GM,Jus,saw your temps out your way,thats chilly,we are warm and humid,feels so good!!How were the wings,got hungry just thinking about them.
Hope you have a great holiday weekend.
Hope everyone rememebers to think about our troops on this holiday.
Hi NEw and Mush, awe that fox is sooo cute. Yes it was very cold! And windy. The satellite dish at the wing place was losing its signal during the Bulls game.

Bulls :( It was painful, awful, like watching a meltdown.

Wings were good, but the guys say the cook tries too hard. He puts some sort of rub on them in addition to the sauce. Problem is, it is different everytime. This time the rub was bitter, like nutmeg or ??? In our professional Wing eating opinion: The sauce is enough, without the rub. LOL
I feel a change of wing night venue is coming. Soon, we will be going from place to place to find a new wing night joint.
I had grilled cheese. Not enough butter on the bread, it was dry. Don't ya love how we complain about our $6.00 dinner??? I think the total bill was $9.00!

Anyhooo, be safe New England and all today. Can't wait until 80 degrees on Monday!
Jus,wanted to stop by and wish you and your family a fun,stress free and happy long weekend.hopefully bad weather will stay away from both of us.
Never a dull moment! Baby kitteh brought a chipmunk into the house! Ahhhh I about died. Son managed to get it outside again. It may be the chipmunk from Molly, Big Kitty and the annoying chipmunk videos, lol. Oooh, that was a shock to see the chipmunk glaring up at me on my family room floor! Kitteh was playing with it. I was on the phone with a friend. I think her ear drum is broken! She was laughin her you know what off!

Sheesh, the zoo!

Add: Thank you NEw! Have a great one yourself!!!!
LOL,I'll take the stress free out of my message,you don't seem to have too much activity from those animals to be stress free.
Quoting juslivn:
Never a dull moment! Baby kitteh brought a chipmunk into the house! Ahhhh I about died. Son managed to get it outside again. It may be the chipmunk from Molly, Big Kitty and the annoying chipmunk videos, lol. Oooh, that was a shock to see the chipmunk glaring up at me on my family room floor! Kitteh was playing with it. I was on the phone with a friend. I think her ear drum is broken! She was laughin her you know what off!

Sheesh, the zoo!





Hi Jus!

Thought you'd get a kick out of this Alvin and the Chipmunks tune, "You Had a Bad Day". Seems fitting under the circumstances. LOL!



HERE ARE THE LYRICS IF YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE WORDS IN THIS VIDEO.

"You Had A Bad Day"

Where is the moment we needed the most
You kick up the leaves and the magic is lost
They tell me your blue skies fade to grey
They tell me your passion's gone away
And I don't need no carryin' on

You stand in the line just to hit a new low
You're faking a smile with the coffee to go
You tell me your life's been way off line
You're falling to pieces everytime
And I don't need no carryin' on

Cause you had a bad day
You're taking one down
You sing a sad song just to turn it around
You say you don't know
You tell me don't lie
You work at a smile and you go for a ride
You had a bad day
The camera don't lie
You're coming back down and you really don't mind
You had a bad day
You had a bad day

Well you need a blue sky holiday
The point is they laugh at what you say
And I don't need no carryin' on

You had a bad day
You're taking one down
You sing a sad song just to turn it around
You say you don't know
You tell me don't lie
You work at a smile and you go for a ride
You had a bad day
The camera don't lie
You're coming back down and you really don't mind
You had a bad day

(Oh.. Holiday..)

Sometimes the system goes on the blink
And the whole thing turns out wrong
You might not make it back and you know
That you could be well oh that strong
And I'm not wrong

So where is the passion when you need it the most
Oh you and I
You kick up the leaves and the magic is lost

Cause you had a bad day
You're taking one down
You sing a sad song just to turn it around
You say you don't know
You tell me don't lie
You work at a smile and you go for a ride
You had a bad day
You've seen what you like
And how does it feel for one more time
You had a bad day
You had a bad day

Had a bad day
Had a bad day
Had a bad day
Had a bad day
Had a bad day


LOL, in a line-up of chipmunks, I'd pick that second one in the vid photo as most like the lil thing she brought in! And its beady little eyes looked just like that!

Off to vacuum. I just can't stand the thought of...well...you know. The poor lil thing. I guess my son put it back into its little chipmunk den outside. Apparently kitteh has been stalking it for days he said.
Relax it's pizza night.:)
Hi Mush! Yeaaasss it is pizza night! But I may order a martini! That kitteh brought it in the house!!! I shoooed Molly outside or else I don't think it would have been pretty if she had seen it.
I didn't see kitteh had the thing because I was out walking around the yard yackin on the phone and left the back door open. Then I kind of just walked back inside and I just heard all kinds of squeaking and flip flopping around in my family room and eeeeek! She was letting it run then catching it and playing with it. She didn't hurt it, except maybe the heart attack it had. OY is it 5:00 yet? Zen Molly is too funny!


Not sure what they see, but guess it's just not good.
Add: Oh now I see. Took a few minutes, but now I see. And they expanded it into another county.

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF PILLSBURY...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.


* THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PAGE AROUND 555 PM CDT.
AYR AROUND 610 PM CDT.


Out East, too in PA has some warnings. Just put an alert up for the fam out there. They had a rough day yesterday, too.
Content? shhhh. Goodnight all ships and hope it is just--calm--
Good Morning! It's overcast, drizzly and 58. Hmmmm would like that warm up anytime now.

Going to plant at the church. Some member started over 100 tomato plants and 100 pepper plants. We're all getting together to plant those. At least the soil will be easy to work with. Tomato Assembly Line! And, we'll see if anything is coming up from what we planted 2 weeks or so ago. Fingers crossed! Have a great day.
Quoting juslivn:
Good Morning! It's overcast, drizzly and 58. Hmmmm would like that warm up anytime now.

Going to plant at the church. Some member started over 100 tomato plants and 100 pepper plants. We're all getting together to plant those. At least the soil will be easy to work with. Tomato Assembly Line! And, we'll see if anything is coming up from what we planted 2 weeks or so ago. Fingers crossed! Have a great day.


Good Morning Jus!

Not so sure if you and your fellowship will be able to plant much with a nearby rainstorm seemingly heading your way. Hope that, if anything, it whisks on by in a hurry and leaves the right amount of wet furtile soil in which to plant. What a great idea your church has to not only feed the souls of its parishoners spiritually but literally as well! May all the crops turn out splendidly!

Have a safe and enjoyable Saturday!

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 234 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
GAYLORD...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF WINTHROP. RADAR SHOWED THE
TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ARLINGTON...
GREEN ISLE...
NEW ROME...

Centered on Gaylord, MN
Good morning....I sure was wishing that we could get through the day without one of these guys spinning around!
Ok, good, you are on this already. Caught me completely off guard. Warnings going out for Lincoln, IL also right now.
Hi MN, sorry. Was watching it a bit. Lincoln is Thunderstorms correct? I saw some rotation in this one West of Peoria and coming over the Iowa line heading just a tad Northwest of Peoria.

Ally I didn't see you there...brb


Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com

May you and your family have a safe Memorial Day Weekend.
Thank you Ally, I was hoping the same...darn...

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 257 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF
BEAVER BAY...OR 41 MILES NORTHEAST OF DULUTH...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.


* THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SILVER BAY AND BEAVER BAY BY 330 PM...
FINLAND BY 335 PM...
ILLGEN CITY BY 340 PM...
LITTLE MARAIS BY 345 PM...

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EASTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES EAST OF
NEW ROME...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LE SUEUR...
HENDERSON...
BELLE PLAINE...
JORDAN...
NEW PRAGUE...
MONTGOMERY...
VESELI...
LONSDALE...
WEBSTER...
NEW MARKET...
ELKO...
CREDIT RIVER...

Centered on Arlington, MN
Regional:

Quoting juslivn:
Hi MN, sorry. Was watching it a bit. Lincoln is Thunderstorms correct? I saw some rotation in this one West of Peoria and coming over the Iowa line heading just a tad Northwest of Peoria.

Ally I didn't see you there...brb



CORRECT...
I have to leave for Home Depot...be safe all thanks for the visits. MN be safe! Thinking IL will remain mostly just strong storms, hail and wind BUT alert radios are on! Oh very heavy rains in some of these, too.
Starting to hear thunder outside now indicating the storm is arriving in Shakopee. Also hearing winds blowing.
Sooooo, hello late! But, today as I mentioned earlier, we planted the tomatoes and peppers (OMG) over 100 tomatoes and 58 pepper plants. So many different kinds of tomatoes like the chocolate cherry, uhm...just too many. The man did just an amazing job with so many different plants so tenderly grown and loved and started. Many different peppers, too.
The potatoes are coming up, some corn and we added starters of garlic, onion, arugula, basil. Cukes, squash, zukes, root veggies, lettuce, spinich, etc...will be up soon. It's a tremendous community garden (from this small little community)! All the harvest will be put down by the road in a farm stand free to anyone in need, or who may stop by the Mt...It's kind of interesting who wanders by this little bastion of ? Life?

a href="Click to play this Smilebox slideshowCreate your own slideshow - Powered by SmileboxThis free photo slideshow personalized with Smilebox" target="_blank">
Hello - remember me? lol

I finally have the house to myself, which allows me to sit at the computer and catch up on WU.

What some terrible weather you have been having in the USA. What on earth has happened to this year's weather - it is not normal!

I had a great, if tiring, week with MIL - she has far more energy than I have for "getting out" ! She hates to sit and do nothing, whereas I am happy to sit and do nothing, just relaxing!!

Have wonderful weekend - hope your weather behaves!
PS - 100 tomato plants!! Do you intend to feed half the town? ;-)
Hi Happy Memorial Day,
Hope you get a break from the wild weather.
Keep the roof intact and the garden growing!
Good Morning gals (and all) GG ty have a wonderful holiday, too. Sandi! Hello glad to see you again and have been watching all your travels with MIL this week. Will stop by in a while.

For now, the watches have been issued for much of Northern Illinois and it's huge. Really strong winds coming in, hail and heavy downpours. Hope anyone camping heads for cover and drier ground. UGH. It's not pretty and I'm sick to my stomach thinking about it. Glad it's not really tornado threatened, but I truly hate, hate wind.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1013.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN MO...NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN IND...SRN
LAKE MI...SW LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 291339Z - 291445Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SHOULD BE WIND
DAMAGE BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO NRN IND AND THE LINE SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A ENEWD STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT
SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE
CHICAGO AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
COULD EXIST ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING-LINE SEGMENT CAN
ORGANIZE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS
WITH THE LINE.


Here we go again... More rain...
Hi {{{Jus}}}!

Boy, the doppler radar in your region of Illinois looks like it's set on permanent deja vu! Hope that nothing serious transpires while passing over your area! I hate every aspect of t'storms and what Mother Nature as recently wrought as well! May you and yours all remain intact in a safe area of the home till all has passed.

Will try and check back a bit later!

Hi Mass, 7080...where you located?

New Thunderstorm Warning:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1118 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELGIN TO SANDWICH...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SLEEPY HOLLOW...ELGIN...YORKVILLE...CARPENTERSVILLE...EAS T
DUNDEE...ST. CHARLES...GENEVA...BATAVIA...DUPAGE AIRPORT...
OSWEGO...HOFFMAN ESTATES...WEST CHICAGO...AURORA...BARRINGTON...
SCHAUMBURG...PALATINE...CAROL STREAM...ROLLING MEADOWS...ROSELLE
AND ARLINGTON HEIGHTS.
Centered on Peoria:



Centered on Chicago:


Really clipping and covers a huge area.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WESTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1156 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN GROVE TO NAPLATE
TO TREMONT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS
WITH THESE LINE OF STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCHELLE...MARSEILLES...SERENA...SENECA...SHABBONA ...SANDWICH...
MORRIS...DE KALB...LITTLE ROCK...PLANO...SYCAMORE...GENOA...
PONTIAC...YORKVILLE...DWIGHT...MINOOKA...CHANNAHON ...WILMINGTON...
OSWEGO AND PLAINFIELD.
heavy rain here but NO gust front with it...
Hmmm WW That's Good. Those winds were strong.
It seems to be staying south of here, too. Some fairly good lightening and had to clean the drain once, so rainfall was pretty heavy. Still really dark.

They upped the risk level to moderate or was it like this? I can't remember?

Man that bow is awesome (even coming from a scardy cat like me). Heads up!!



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...

DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IL WILL
TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY.
A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT /DERECHO/ IS POSSIBLE. RAPID
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOW AS THE WARM FROM
RETREATS... SUGGESTING BOW MAY MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT...
COUPLED WITH HIGH LEVEL OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF BOW SUPPORTS A
THREAT OF QLCS TORNADOES ALONG THE BOW...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE BOW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...HART
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY...
KANKAKEE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1228 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOURBONNAIS...KANKAKEE...BRADLEY...MANTENO...MOMEN CE...GARDNER...
BRACEVILLE...HERSCHER...AROMA PARK...ST. ANNE...GRANT PARK...
HOPKINS PARK...SOUTH WILMINGTON...EAST BROOKLYN...GODLEY...
REDDICK...ESSEX...BUCKINGHAM...UNION HILL AND BONFIELD.



TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY...
NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 114 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOPKINS PARK...OR NEAR MOMENCE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
WIND DAMAGE WAS ALSO REPORTED
IN KANKAKEE.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CONRAD...LAKE VILLAGE AND ENOS AROUND 125 PM.
ROSELAWN...SUMAVA RESORTS AND THAYER AROUND 130 PM.
PEMBROKE...FAIR OAKS AND FOREST CITY AROUND 135 PM.
DE MOTTE AROUND 140 PM.
GIFFORD AROUND 145 PM.



OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SCHNEIDER AND WHEATFIELD.
{{{JUS}}}!

HOPE YOU REMAIN SAFE DURING WHAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE A REAL NASTY OR VIOLENT T'STORM IN YOUR AREA!

HOPE YOU DON'T ENCOUNTER ANY TORNADIC ACTIVITY EITHER!!!

STAY SAFE AND WELL!



Hi Mass, following a live chat downtown, and they are getting it now. My home is too far north of it but we have rain, lots of rain.
Rain is the situation now, still lightening.

New Warning in Indiana as it heads East (but this will probably be my last post on this as they may get very frequent into Indiana) however...Also watching those little cells by Ottawa, IL and up by Rockford--just small ones trailing the front.

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN LA PORTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
STARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT/330 PM EDT/

* AT 236 PM EDT/136 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE. 9 MILES WEST OF DE MOTTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
MEDARYVILLE...
LA CROSSE...
NORTH JUDSON...
KNOX...HAMLET AND WINAMAC...
KOONTZ LAKE...
CULVER...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SAN
PIERRE...CLARKS...LOMAX...ENGLISH LAKE...DENHAM...TOTO...RIPLEY...
BREMS...BEARDSTOWN...BASS LAKE...WINONA AND ORA.
55. OGal


Glad to hear you are out of the way of this bad bear. Rain is nice but not horrible wind. We are kicking back and watching the 500. Spent yesterday getting all the clothes washed from our trip. What a pile dirty jeans and sweatshirts. Now it is just like we have gone nowhere In a week I will be ready to go again.

Thought about you. A young guy from California was sitting ahead of us on the plane coming home. He was coming here for a wedding just like you guys did. Have you heard from your Japanese friends?? Hope they are getting somewhat back to normal.

Hope you and your family have a nice Memorial Day. Ours will be very, very quiet. That is just fine. Got to get geared up for next week.
Hi O'Gal glad your trip was great! Hope you enjoyed the 500 today and continue a relaxing afternoon.
No haven't heard from them and haven't really talked to Bill and Jane so no updates from Japan for a while ;( Will stop to see if you have new pics up. Welcome back home!

Now...for Mother Nature's next trick we will go from 58 degrees to 90's by tomorrow!!! Should be clearing soon from the looks of the radar and let the bbq's and parades/memorial services begin!



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ERN SD...WRN MN...AND EXTREME SE ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO THE CENTRAL KS/OK
BORDER...

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
EJECT NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-90 KT
SSWLY 500 MB JET CORE. AN INITIAL REMNANT LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER
CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WHILE A
SECONDARY LEE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED INVOF SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON. E
OF THE INITIAL CYCLONE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWD...ALLOWING THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD NWD INTO NRN MN/WI
BY LATE AFTERNOON. N OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN ND/MN/NW WI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA...AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG. A WARM EML ATOP THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONFINE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEB NNEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.
STORMS WILL FIRST FORM AFTER 21Z IN CENTRAL NEB...JUST NE OF THE
WARMEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
ERN SD AND SE ND/WRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT BOTH SUGGEST
THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE WILL OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER STORM INITIATION. THUS...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
PEAK IN THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS AFTER INITIATION. THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD
ALONG THE LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH THE MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AS WELL AS WITH THE
BOWING SEGMENTS LATER IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FARTHER N INTO ERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL KS/WRN OK/W TX AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND W OF A
DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FROM THE LEE CYCLONE IN SW NEB. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING
AS THE CAP IS REMOVED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/WRN OK
PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKEN
WITH SWD EXTENT INTO W TX. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE KS/OK PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES...BUT
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEMPER THIS
THREAT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT...SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIFT SWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
Glad to hear your weather is clearing. Bring on the holiday celebrations!

Love those pics from Rock Island - especially the Blues Brothers. Have you ever been to the Bix Biederbecke festival? This year is the 80th anniversary. While my dad still was alive, I can't remember them missing a year. Dad loved Dixieland - all jazz, really - and the year we went as a family to Preservation Hall in New Orleans you'd have thought he had been "raptured". Sweet Emma still was alive then, and we got to hear her - just amazing.

Check out her version of "Jellyroll" - love the bells on her leg!
Hi Shore,
Ugh nurse!!! Think our long holiday weekend has about exhausted us. j/k lil dunkin will help shortly I hope.

I've never seen that vid! Classic and chuckling, grinnin here. Thanks shore. Never went out of Chicago for any blues, except just 'being' in New Orleans, but no festivals there. Would absolutely love it though. ty
Hi Jus!

Hope you and yours will have a peaceful and relaxing Memorial Day with no real serious storms in sight for quite some time! Thankfully, we missed that nasty system that made its way from Illinois yesterday to parts of the Northeast earlier this am. (Mostly Connecticut which had to cancel many events). Stay cool during the Illinois heatwave today!

It appears they moved this over just a bit and just the corner of IL is in the low risk. But still looking at the other areas which are Moderate and Slight...

I will not be by a computer much this afternoon and tonight. Feel free to post if it goes severe and you feel like it. Have a great day all! Our Memorial Day wish is above in the header. Thank you for all who served, gave their lives, and prayers for their families and friends who remember them today.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ERN SD...WRN MN...AND EXTREME SE ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWEST OK NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER NM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE ZONE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MN.

...NEB/DAKOTAS/MN...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY RETREAT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OVER ND/MN AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS FULL
SUNSHINE OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000+ J/KG ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK CINH
ALONG THE FRONT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AROUND
21Z FROM THE TRIPLE POINT OVER CENTRAL NEB NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF FRONT TO UPPER
WINDS MAKE STORM-MODE FORECASTS COMPLEX. INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A
RISK OF TORNADOES. BUT A RATHER QUICK EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE
APPEARS LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED BOWS POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE
EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST IA.

...KS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK
AND WEST TX. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS HIGHEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NEB/NORTHERN
KS...AND DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. STORMS THAT FORM OVER
NEB/KS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS. FROM WESTERN OK INTO
WEST TX...ONLY VERY ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.



Hello JS,
It's hot and humid and sunny clear here this afternoon. We did have a little activity very early this morning just to our West. I pretty much slept through most of it. That is until our NOAA Alert Radio sounded off. I just turned it off after I realized that this was just minor stuff and went back to sleep. The temperature is forecast hit 83 today which we are very close to. Nothing on the horizon storm wise.
May 30, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

...20Z UPDATE...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN
MADE ...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVE
TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT
INDICATED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION AND APPENDED BELOW. AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN INHIBITION IN SUCH A MANNER AS TO ALLOW RAPID WIDESPREAD
STORM FORMATION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS.

IF STORMS MAINTAIN A DISCRETE NATURE AS THE SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /GUIDANCE INDICATES UP TO
AROUND 70 KT AT 850 MB/...VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER... IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS MAY BE FAIRLY
SMALL...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO A QUICK
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO EXTREME SURFACE
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

..KERR.. 05/30/2011


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SEVERE TSTMS. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

...GUYER/HART


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHEAST SD. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A
FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...EVOLUTION TO A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

...HART


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302033Z - 302200Z

AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU
NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL KS DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KS
JUST WEST OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 2015Z. IN ACCORDANCE WITH
GLANCING DPVA AND ADDITIONAL STRONG MIXING WEST OF THE DRYLINE...THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT PRE-DARK SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN KS...ALTHOUGH ROGUE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PROVIDED STORMS INDEED FORM...RELATIVELY STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH VEER-BACK-VEER
TYPE WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM PER REGIONAL
PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS IMPLY A LINEAR-TYPE
EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR WITH TIME. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF A MORE LINEAR-TYPE EVOLUTION OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED NATURE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIMIT SUCH
POTENTIAL. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A MORE CERTAIN
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.

..GUYER.. 05/30/2011


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
VALENTINE NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...WW 403...

DISCUSSION...STRONG FRONTAL PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WATCH. WITH BRN SHEAR OF 60-70 KTS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...HALES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN ND...CENTRAL NEB...ERN
SD...WRN-CENTRAL MN.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 402...403...

VALID 302317Z - 310115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 402...403...CONTINUES.

AT 2230Z...CONVENTIONAL AND REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATES SFC COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM SERN ND LOW ACROSS ERN SD BETWEEN
MHE-ATY...THEN SSWWD ACROSS HOLT/CUSTER COUNTIES NEB...INTERSECTING
DRYLINE BETWEEN LBF-BBW. DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED SWD FROM THERE ACROSS
FRONTIER COUNTY NEB AND GRAY COUNTY KS...AND SHOULD RETREAT/MERGE
WITH COLD FRONT OVER SERN NEB DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PROCESS
MAY BE ACCELERATED AS COMBINED GRADIENT WINDS AND TSTM OUTFLOW OVER
WW 404--SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033--MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO
SRN PORTIONS WW 402.

BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS FROM FRONT-DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEWD TO SERN
SD...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING MORE NWD BEHIND COLD FRONT.
APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL HAS PRODUCED A FEW TORNADO REPORTS
ACROSS PORTIONS ROCK/BLAINE/HOLT COUNTIES NEB DURING PAST 1-2
HOURS...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL UP TO 3.5 INCHES
DIAMETER. SIMILAR THREATS WILL PERSIST FOR THIS OR ANY OTHER CELLS
THAT CAN REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE OR MAINTAIN SEWD EXTENSIONS INTO
RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED WARM-SECTOR INFLOW AIR. PREFRONTAL AIR MASS
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEW POINTS...WITH
MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AND
50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THOUGH SRH WILL REMAIN LARGEST
ALONG WARM FRONT NOW MOVING NWD BEYOND FAR/DTL/MSP AREAS...FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND OCNL TORNADOES WILL PERSIST SWWD
ACROSS ERN SD AND CENTRAL NEB.

UPSCALE GROWTH AND MORE LINEAR EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN
SMALLNESS OF MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR ANGLES WITH RESPECT TO
COLD FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN PROGRESS OF SFC COLD FRONT...ANY STORM
MOTION VECTORS ALONG FRONT AND CERTAINLY TO ITS W WILL REMAIN
LEFTWARD OF FRONT...AND THEREFORE ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THETAE AND STRONGER MLCINH. ELEVATED BUOYANCY
AVAILABLE TO THIS ACTIVITY STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL THREAT...AND SHALLOWNESS OF STABLE LAYER JUST W OF FRONT
SHOULD NOT PRECLUDE OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS AS WELL. MLCINH ESTIMATES
INCREASE TO AOA 200 J/KG IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL
AIR W OF ABOUT 9V9-ABR LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2011
La Crosse, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR ONEILL. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL HOLT
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HIGHWAY 281 MILE
MARKER 190. INCLUDING ONEILL.


TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOYD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 651 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR MIDWAY...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REDBIRD STATE WILDLIFE MANANGEMENT AREA...LYNCH AND MONOWI.


NOTE: TO FOLLOW SEVERE STORM WARNINGS FROM YOU COMPUTER,
GO TO Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SIOUX CITY IOWA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 402...WW 403...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED N/S ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD AS IT MOVES EWD. VERY STRONG PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET IS DRIVING THE LINE EWD WITH THE FORCING FROM
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS PROVIDING
BOTH SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR VERY
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT
DAMAGING WINDS NOW ARE THE DOMINANT THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23040.

...HALES


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN IOWA
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF THIEF RIVER
FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 402...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 403. WATCH NUMBER 402 403
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 845 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 405...

DISCUSSION...THREAT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST EITHER WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...BOW-ECHO MESOCIRCULATIONS OR LEADING-EDGE/QLCS SPINUPS.
WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD OVER MORE OF NRN MN WITH TIME...AHEAD OF
MCS...LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC AIR MASS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...EDWARDS/HALES
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
847 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
EASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 842 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS
LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF WALCOTT...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HICKSON AND DAVENPORT AROUND 855 PM CDT.
HORACE...RUSTAD AND WILD RICE AROUND 900 PM CDT.
MAPLETON...WEST FARGO AND PRAIRIE ROSE AROUND 905 PM CDT.
FARGO...MOORHEAD AND DILWORTH AROUND 910 PM CDT.

* THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR BARNEY IN RICHLAND COUNTY
AROUND 827 PM.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADIC STORM
INCLUDE DURBIN...OXBOW...REILE'S ACRES...HARWOOD...KRAGNES AND
GEORGETOWN.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKER 50 AROUND 855 PM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 70
AROUND 915 PM CDT...

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKER 347 AROUND 905 PM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 352
AROUND 910 PM CDT...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
858 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
EASTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 856 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THOMPSON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS. A
TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. RADAR SHOWED THE STORM WAS MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BYGLAND AROUND 905 PM CDT.
GRAND FORKS AND MALLORY AROUND 910 PM CDT.
EAST GRAND FORKS AROUND 915 PM CDT.
MANVEL AROUND 925 PM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE STORM INCLUDE TABOR.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...THE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKER 133 AROUND 900 PM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 144 AROUND 915 PM
CDT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
859 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
STEVENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 854 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHOKIO...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF MORRIS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DONNELLY.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
906 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 905 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER BUXTON...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS...MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
REYNOLDS AROUND 915 PM CDT.
BYGLAND AROUND 935 PM CDT.
FISHER AROUND 940 PM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKER 116 AROUND 905 PM CDT...AND MILE MARKER 127
AROUND 920 PM CDT...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB/KS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 402...

VALID 310113Z - 310245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 402 CONTINUES.

PORTIONS WW OVER NEB MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE 02Z BY SVR TSTM WW THAT
ALSO WOULD EXTEND SWD INTO KS.

SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO PERSIST PAST SCHEDULED 02Z WW EXPIRATION
TIME...EVOLVING INTO WIND-DOMINANT THREAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND
BRIEF/QLCS-TYPE TORNADO POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT ALSO IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES BOTH DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN KS...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE
EXTENDING SWWD TO SERN CO. EXTENSIVE/CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED COLD
POOL CONTINUES TO SURGE EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SEWD INTO
NWRN KS...CHARACTERIZED BY PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.
78 KT GUST WAS MEASURES AT 0055Z AT LXN AS THIS INTERACTION OCCURRED
NEARBY. SWD CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING INTO KS IS FCST...AS FORCED
ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OVERCOMES STG CINH. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD RATHER RAPIDLY RELEASE 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS WILL EXPAND ORGANIZED/SVR
WIND THREAT SWD OVER KS AS WELL AS MAINTAIN/SHIFT WIND RISK EWD OVER
CENTRAL NEB.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
912 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HERMAN...OR 37 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS
FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELBOW LAKE...WENDELL AND BARRETT AROUND 930 PM CDT.
ASHBY AROUND 945 PM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE TORNADIC STORM WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKERS 72 AND 78 AROUND 940 PM CDT...
Vortex signatures are popping up everywhere along that line of severe TS ...
NOTE: YOU WILL NEED HIGH SPEED INTERNET TO VIEW THE FOLLOWING 40 FRAME RADAR IMAGE

Sioux Falls, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Here is some interesting information to take notice of if you don't already know this. I heard one of our weatherman on TV make that statement that we have had more tornadoes this year than any previous year since records have been kept. I had to check this out for myself. At the webpage at Storm Prediction Center WCM Page when we look at the chart labeled 'Daily Counts and Annual Running Trend (Updated Frequently)' for Tornado Counts, it's clear that the number of tornadoes occurring has gone up dramatically for the Month of April. So much in fact that we have even passed the year 2008 for this time of the year. I have made the statement that this year appears to be very much like 2008 which got a very early start and has one of the highest tornado counts ever recorded. The charts below the one I reference verify this. What this means for the future is anybodies guess. Is this because of the climate change and increased global warming? It would appear that there is no consensus on this as of yet. What is clear, assuming that most of these counts hold up to verification, that we seem to be off to one of the highest tornado occurrences that we have ever seen.
Quoting whitewabit:
Vortex signatures are popping up everywhere along that line of severe TS ...


If this storm strength holds up all night long, we could be in for a real beating in the morning in the Twin Cities as well as all areas North and South of us. This is a very strong slow mover that is packing a lot of energy. There have been a total of 19 tornado reports from Nebraska through South Dakota with 57 wind reports from Kansas to Northern North Dakota and Wisconsin already. 53 hail reports also including Wisconsin. The Wind and Hail reports for Wisconsin are primarily from this mornings storms that rolled through the Twin Cities.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1012 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT TUESDAY

* AT 1012 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE
HERMAN...NORCROSS AND ELBOW LAKE AREAS. 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN HAD
FALLEN BETWEEN 900 PM AND 1000 PM IN ELBOW LAKE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ELBOW
LAKE...BARRETT...HERMAN...NORCROSS AND WENDELL. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN
1030 PM AND 200 AM MONDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO INCHES MORE RAIN...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE FOLLOWING STREAMS ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING...POMME DE TERRE
RIVER...MACSVILLE...FIVEMILE CREEK AND DELAWARE TS.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN ND...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN
MN...EXTREME ERN SD...NWRN IA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406...

VALID 310309Z - 310515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 406 CONTINUES.

PROBABLE SERIAL-DERECHO EVENT UNDERWAY ATTM WITH MCS FROM KS TO NERN
MN...AND MEASURED SVR GUSTS AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG ITS LENGTH. WW
MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND MCS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF TRAILING COLD-POOL
STABILIZATION.

PRONOUNCED BOW ECHO...HAVING PRODUCED 63-KT GUST AND EXTENSIVE
REPORTS OF DAMAGE AROUND FAR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z...IS MOVING NNEWD
ABOUT 60 KT...ITS WRN PORTIONS OVERTAKING BAND OF RELATIVELY
DISCRETE AND CLUSTERED TSTMS NEAR RED RIVER THAT INCLUDES OCNL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MLCINH NE OF WARM FRONT NEAR CANADIAN BORDER BY ABOUT
04Z...BOW POSES CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGE OVER EXTREME NWRN MN.
ADDITIONAL FORMATION OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND LEWPS WITH RELATIVELY
CONCENTRATED THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS LOCALLY...AS WELL AS EMBEDDED
AND/OR LEADING-EDGE TORNADOES. AS OF 03Z...WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD
FROM NEAR NWRN MN BOW ECHO...TO NEAR BRD-AUW LINE. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD OVERTAKE THIS FRONT FROM W-E WITH TIME...EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS THAT ARE SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO WILL SPREAD NWD
ACROSS MORE OF NRN MN FROM S-N AS SLOPE OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES
MORE SHALLOW. S OF FRONT IN WARM SECTOR...CORRIDOR OF NEGLIGIBLY
CAPPED SFC PARCELS AND 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID-UPPER 60S F. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 55-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS...ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME SERN SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405...

VALID 310338Z - 310545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405
CONTINUES.

SVR SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WW AREA...WITH
BACKBUILDING SWD OVER KS...AS PART OF PROBABLE SERIAL DERECHO EVENT
THAT ALSO EXTENDS NNEWD OVER WRN MN. WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND TSTM
BAND...WHERE POSTFRONTAL DECLINE IN LOW-LEVEL THETAE IS UNDERWAY.
SOME COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED TO WW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS IN ICT/DDC
COUNTY WARNING AREAS.

SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED IN POSTFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...I.E. 10-11 MB PER 2 HOUR RISES ANALYZED INVOF KS/NEB
BORDER. AS SUCH...EXPANSIVE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO REINFORCE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
MEASURED SVR GUSTS ALREADY HAVING BEEN RECORDED AT SEVERAL LOCALES.
THIS INCLUDES 64-KT GUST AT GRI AT 0230Z..AND 59 KT JUST E OF THERE
AT MYP. FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT LEAST...INTENSE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD-POOL SLAB SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERCOME STG CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z WARM-SECTOR RAOBS. FOREGOING AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS..CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE GENERALLY 1500-2500 J/KG...WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IN MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS IN HOW FAR S
BACKBUILDING WILL TAKE PLACE...GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY GREATER DISTANCE
FROM STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SHALLOW
COLD-FRONTAL SLOPE WITH SWD EXTENT. IR IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING
CLOUD TOPS AS FAR S AS KS/OK BORDER SSW DDC...JUST S OF WHERE COLD
SURGE...WEAKER COLD FRONT/CONFLUENCE LINE...AND DRYLINE INTERSECT.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2011
Today's Storm Reports (1200 UTC - 1159 UTC)

click on image to link to SPC Storm Reports page for details

click on image to link to SPC main page


I'm off to bed so you are on your own from here forward. Storm warnings can be found at this page.

Good night all.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI AS WELL AS
ERN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL/WI EWD INTO
MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH...

CORRECTED

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A
RELATIVELY SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
MN INTO NRN MO DURING THE MORNING...WEAKENING A BIT AS IT LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SWLY
FLOW FROM CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIE
ROUGHLY FROM ERN WA INTO NRN NV.

...WI/MI AND NRN IL/IND/OH...
WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR DUE TO MIXING AND ALSO A SLIGHT WEAKENING/LIFTING OUT OF
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE N. DESPITE THIS...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL
BE STRONG AND FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND CNTRL WI BY
MIDDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND...AND EWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MIXED STORM MODES MAY OCCUR...WITH FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
AND A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY. WITH TIME...THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WEAK EFFECTIVE SRH...AS WELL AS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH TIME.

...COASTAL NC/SC/GA...
A NELY FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO
THE NW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
WITH FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS
INLAND WITH HINTS OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON OVER
SRN NC/ERN SC. THE NAM STEEPENS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES PERHAPS A
LITTLE TOO MUCH IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS...AND
SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. WHILE A WEAK UPPER FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GLANCE THE AREA...OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR
A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...MO/OK/TX...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL MO INTO OK
AND NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CIN WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY...OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER TX WHERE UPPER HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR. STILL...STRONG HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ENTIRE ZONE. PULSE TO
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE MARGINAL HAIL/WIND ARE MOST LIKELY. AFTER
00Z...A SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD. THIS MAY
HELP FORCE SOME WEAK ACTIVITY INTO SRN KS...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT CIN
AND DEGREE OF FORCING CURRENT LIMIT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...SERN WA/NERN ORE/NRN ID/WRN MT...
WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE W...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG LIVED...POSSIBLY WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL VEERING. DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/31/2011
Wow, MN it was busy last night! Have to look at the storm reports some of those look wicked. Thanks for all the work.

Michigan looks like it is just a target today--well moderate risk target. Amazing how the setup can pinpoint one state like that with the lakes surrounding it containing the threat to its borders. May or may not post Michigan wx today depending on time and work.

We may get some storms here this afternoon. For now, windy again today. Was like a blow dryer yesterday. A tad cooler today.

We had a very busy weekend, but it was nice and hope you all did too! I'm exhausted, and ate waaayyyy too much good food!

On a side note: I was thinking...uh oh...are Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes now what is the new 'bad'? I mean, if someone hears there is an F-1 or the alerts are for spin ups and straight line winds up to 70, and not long track supercells, are they just gonna go pfft...that's nothing?
I sort of feel it happening...I feel a level of change has happened. I actually had someone say: Well this won't be as bad as Joplin right? Uhm...noooo, but.....

I guess I have seen this on the main blog too, with hurricanes. Interesting phenomena. Mother nature outdoes herself and some humans get fooled a bit into thinking oh it's only a severe thunderstorm, 65 mph winds, not 'bad' till it takes out their power for a week, topples trees, etc...

Well the above was probably not phrased the best, but I think you get my drift where I was going with it...just thoughts.

P.S. also, I would like to say, I did NOT bring up weather this weekend and was around a bunch of people who don't even know I'm on a wx blog...Many were talking about the storms and the crazy weather and the news A LOT. Rightly so due to the historic events which have happened this Spring. It was interesting.

ramble scramble...Have a good Tuesday.
90. Ylee
Gee, jus, are the storms ever going to stop for you guys?

When Ike zoomed through the midwest in '08 with its tropical storm force winds, hundreds of thousands of people were without power for a week or more; I don't remember people dismissing it then, and if it happened again next week, people would still be up in arms. I think people are just burnt out over all the bad weather coverage.
Hi Ylee, we're just getting rolling up here. It was quite a cold Spring. Now, the instability comes our direction. I think because this blog covers MN, IA, WI, IL, some MI, MO, IN a tad...it gets busy.

Ty for the thoughts on the thoughts ;) seems either they are freaked out (Is this going to be like Joplin?), or getting desensitized (Oh, just a small tornado). It's as if I see two clear types of people (and certain this is not a new observation after a disaster event) it's probably classic behavior...but the scale of the Nationwide collective healing process, and behavior process is truly interesting.

Ike was our flood of record in Des Plaines, I think. Eeek Ike...
Ok Chatty Cathy here...back again with yet another ponderance:

Does anyone know the benefit of crawling into a 4 ft. crawl space under a house in a tornado, vs just maybe going in the bathroom or a closet?

I learned that when we were in Iowa, my FIL grabbed both pekingnese went outside to where the outside access is and nearly tripped trying to get down to the crawl space by himself, with a dog in each arm. It was a tornado warning in McHenry May 22. I just found out about this yesterday. I guess he used to put all the kids down there in warnings too when Tim was growing up. Need to go over and examine this a bit. hmmmmm
Of course I could pick them up in 5 minutes with enough warning. but...
I guess it would depend on where the crawlspace was and what surrounds it.Depending on how powerful the tornado is.In the case of an EF5 tornado,unless your under ground,not many places you can go safely.It just becomes random luck.
It's the typical frame, alum sided, straight across ranch with a crawl under the whole house. Actually, the furnace is down there. (as a realtor, I just hate this, but it is what it is and cost probably $11,000 in 1960).

NEw, re-thinking this: It is a mobility issue or a preparation issue with the inlaws and their (insert expletive) dogs (I should talk--and I'm going straight to hell, lol)
I have a new Noaa radio for them and I'm bringing it over today. I'm gonna scope this out better. Someone had installed easy to lift dorothy doors for their parents on one blog--will have to find that and see what they did.
Maybe I have to look at the doors and the stairs (well I think it is a ladder now). And ask them if the dogs would go into kennel boxes if they were told to, so they can carry them. They are little dogs.

Thanks for sharing.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN OHIO

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT. A WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE STORMS WILL THEN GROW INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

Be back later, feel free to post while I'm out if it pops.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311700Z - 311930Z

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WRN ONT THROUGH WRN WI INTO ERN IA. THE FRONT IS MOVING ENE
AT ABOUT 30 KT AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN UPR MI THROUGH CNTRL WI
INTO FAR ERN IA BY EARLY AFTN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RADAR AND VWP
DATA SHOW A LOW LVL WIND SHIFT LINE LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS
IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB. THIS LINE IS JUST NOW CROSSING LK MI...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS THE COLD FRONT.
FINALLY...IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...TCU ARE GROWING OVER THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI.

ATTM...WATER IMAGERY AND PROFILER/VWP DATA SHOW A STRONG N-S
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER CNTRL MN BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS IMPULSE...MARKED BY AN 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ...SHOULD
ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MI LATER TODAY WHILE THE PARENT UPR
LOW EDGES MORE SLOWLY ENE FROM MB INTO ONT.

COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO FOSTER RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE
WIND SHIFT LINE...AND WITHIN THE TCU FIELD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS
INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SQLNS. EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS IN THE SQLNS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES.


..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011
dorothy doors.... .. I have never heard this phrase before, but because I have seen the Wizard of OZ, I have an image of what you mean ! lol

I hope the bad weather doesn't develop into something where you'll need dorothy doors :)

The sun is shining here today, after a wet weekend - but of course it was a three day weekend, so of course the weather would be grotty!! lol

We should be under a threat for severe weather tomorrow when the front comes through,my luck it'll come through and we'll lose power just as the hockey game comes on.Not that would be a bad thing,healthwise I probably would be better off not watching it.
That a boy New, find the optimism in any situation!

LOL did you have to google Dorothy Doors Sandi? Glad you have sun. Getting just a tad dicey here, but looks south of me just a hair for now.

FIRST one and went right to a warning, skipped the watch. Hmmm big area...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SOMONAUK...OR NEAR SANDWICH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LITTLE ROCK...PLANO AND HINCKLEY AROUND 225 PM CDT.
SUGAR GROVE AROUND 230 PM CDT.
MONTGOMERY AROUND 235 PM CDT.
NORTH AURORA...BATAVIA AND AURORA AROUND 240 PM CDT.
WEST CHICAGO...GENEVA...DUPAGE AIRPORT AND WARRENVILLE AROUND 245
PM CDT.
CAROL STREAM...WINFIELD AND WHEATON AROUND 250 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOULDER
HILL...BLOOMINGDALE...GLENDALE HEIGHTS...LINCOLNWOOD AND GOLF.

Sorry Northern WI, missed that you went severe t-storm warned, too. Watch boxes and severe are above in the map, and they just issued the watch for many counties in IL, MI, IN and WI.

WI:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARAGA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...
SOUTH CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/

* AT 240 PM EDT/140 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NISULA TO SIDNAW TO 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KENTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARAGA...L'ANSE...COVINGTON...ALBERTA...KEWEENAW BAY...SKANEE...
THREE LAKES...MICHIGAMME...CHAMPION...PERCH LAKE...WATTON...
PELKIE...TRIANGLE RANCH...ASSININS...BONE LAKE...HERMAN...
PEQUAMING...NED LAKE...CRAIG LAKE STATE PARK AND MOUNT ARVON.

Happy Pansy faces for you today.



I just put up my first slideshow on my blog. Thanks to you for pointing the way. I just kept it simple: no music or special effects of any kind. Just your basic slideshow, but I'm happy. I also did a major weather grumble this morning, then came by here to see you've been doing the same. I guess we're all wondering if this nasty stuff is the new normal.

I'm really impressed with your community garden. And the concept is great, to put harvested items in a free-help-yourself produce stand. No community effort here, but I always plant more than I think I'll need. If things go well... or should I say grow well, I take the excess to the local senior center, where fresh produce is always welcome and free for the taking.
Oooh cool I will be right over! I saw your post this morning, lol. I think maybe we are just about 3 weeks behind on soil temps, too. Hopefully you will get a full crop after all, since maybe mother nature will postpone frost and winter at the other end (fall) 3 weeks as well? ;) That's really good that you take your excess vegies there! More peeps should if they don't share at work etc...one just never knows who could use a hand now and then.

Cute pansies.

Severe t-storm for Chi almost out over the lake now, didn't see much complaining going on in the live weather chat room for one of the stations. Watch is still up, but warning has expired.
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT PLEASANT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHEPHERD AROUND 635 PM EDT...

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
SHEPHERD... COE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING OBJECTS.

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHEPHERD...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLEASANT VALLEY AND OIL CITY AROUND 645 PM EDT.
PORTER TOWNSHIP AROUND 655 PM EDT.
GORDONVILLE AROUND 700 PM EDT.
AVERILL AND SANFORD AROUND 705 PM EDT.
MIDLAND AROUND 715 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
SANFORD... PLEASANT VALLEY... OIL CITY...
MIDLAND...

Centered on Midland, MI
Missed two tornado warnings in MI, had to cook dinner. Strong storms still moving through MI, strongest almost out over the lake, but I do see some trailing bands causing mischief.



Well, we embarked on the 'vineyard' because, you know, everyone needs a vineyard... LOL, it's only two vines. These vines are over 75 years old, passed on through family.
">
JS,
You and hubby have been very busy little beavers, haven't you? Glad everything is turning out well. Hot enough for you yet? It's was cool and very windy here today. I hear we may be into the 90's in a couple of days. Starting to feel like Summer finally.
The new meds seem to be doing the job but in combination with the old ones I have a hard time staying awake.
Enjoy your day
Oh, grapes..... can we place an order for a bottle or two of the 2012 vintage !!
LOL

Hope the weather stays fine and doesn't come along and undo all your hard work!


Wishing you a very happy, and weather safe, month:)

PS - as to posting photos, with internal divisions and borders to WU, I can't help.

I have entered photos with external borders and had them accepted, but as to entering a "collage" I have no idea. You will have to try it and see:)
GM,Jus,you guys are busy.Grape vines are pretty cool,my inlaws had a huge grape vine that draped over their cement patio in the backyard and provided great shade in the summer and tons of grapes in the fall,except they dropped all over the patio also and made a mess that we had to clean up,but the grapes were delicious.
Good Morning Jus!

Just got back online after a nasty line of t'storms swept through our region. Thankfully, the hail and downpours were brief and didn't do any damage.

How wonderful to have such a vintage generational grapevine continue to thrive in your yard. I remember so vividly, over forty-five years ago, the family of a close childhood friend of mine, grew a small seeded concord grape type in their backyard. I was never partial to the concord grapes, myself - (too sweet), but I did enjoy them when pitted and made into jellies. I do enjoy the whole yellow or red seedless variety in the summer, especially, when chilled. They certainly make for a wholesome nutritious snack.

Hope your vine grows sturdy, strong and abundant! Plus, may any vino (wine) produced not end up as the grapes of wrath. (Only kidding!) LOL!

CHEERS!
Hi all: Well worth the wait for this absolutely gorgeous first of June!!!!! Just a spectacular day in Chicagoland.

MN - Good to hear you are warm warm warm! Certainly beats 17 below and 6 ft of snow! Happy June. Keep taking pictures. The ones you took were beautiful.

Tony: Oh darn it the new meds make you tired. I hope that wanes as time goes on. Will be by to keep up on your neck of the woods--er prairie! Happy June to you!

Sandi - I will mark your order down! Actually, I should send you wine from Door County, WI they have some lovely winery's up there believe it or not. I have never made wine except for helping crush grapes at Octoberfest when we were kids, and picking the grapes in groups for the festival. I think Hubby would like to try it.
I submitted the photo, but it really didn't pop. Sometimes, I have really good photos which don't look good on WU photo section. I could have edited that pic and really brought the bumble bee out...oh well. As it was, there was another purple flower with a honey bee which won an AC.

NEw - We had a mulberry tree on the corner of the deck which would stain everything. The animals would come in with purple feet! Hope again your storms stay away and you end up with this weather we have in a few days.

Mass - I about wrote a novel on the grapes almost as long as The Grapes of Wrath, lol last night. I got sappy, but opted for the abridged version later, lol. Making jelly and jam is what I intend and not really wine. But it would be so cool to put these 2 acres to use. Who knows if this goes well I'll bottle my own wine and call it 'rapture'.
Stay out of that severe hey! Hope you have a better day then this morning!

Today, I am officially back on the availability schedule for work. But they didn't schedule me in until Monday, then it will get busy. So June begins kind of a 'back to the routine' routine....Be well all! Hope our weirdo little invest brings only good rain to those who need it!!!!!
Purple footprints,guess it wasn't hard to tell who the culprits were.This is a short week,but it feels like its twice as long,what a week.Is it Friday yet?
Hope the storms aren't too bad,but looking forward to the cool fresh air starting tomorrow.
That invest took a weird route(was going to spell it root)came down from us.bout time we sent them some weather.
Anyone seen an avatar floating around anywhere???
It's futile to look for the avatars. They go to the avatar abyss! Generally, I take it as a sign from God to make a change. Like an omen. Or I upload the same one again and say f-it.

I have found that when I have like 3 wunderground radars running, am on the SPC and CDM and NWS, my avatar tends to go missing, LOL.
Jus,we now have a tornado watch posted for our area,maybe that missing avatar was a sign from God,get the h*** out of there.
Thanks for the hug Mush. We all need somebody to lean on...

New Pics of Da Zoo...4 youooo
Goodnight all ships, can't hear the trains tonight, but the soft wind is blowing away the sounds.
Kansas and Mass and Nebraska and, CALI?? certainly leaving out a few and I'm sorry. Just too many storms...ugh
Oh yes, pics of the zooo, for a hopefully peaceful goodnight.

Photobucket">
Good Morning.I Love the critter pictures!! :)
Anyone seen NEw this morning?
Quoting juslivn:
Anyone seen NEw this morning?


Good Morning Jus ~

I'm not sure what's keeping NEw from getting online today, but I do know that there were, thankfully,no reports of damage occuring from the line of thunderstorms that swept through just North of and through the Boston/Metro area all the way towards Cape Cod regions last night.

He has mentioned in the past couple of days that he's been under the gun at work which is the more plausible explanation. I don't think it's because the Bruins hockey team lost their first game of the Stanley cup playoffs to the Vancouver Canucks.

Thankfully, there are no storms in sight today and a Canadian cold front has brought refreshing wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Our temps are more seasonable (in the lower 70's) and the skies are blue and sunny. Hopefully, the wind gusts won't affect the vast cleanup going on in those devastated towns/cities in the affected central portion of Mass. It truly is remarkable that there weren't more fatalities involved, but sad for those taken nonetheless. 19 commmunities were affected all in all, so it will take awhile before life resumes to near normalcy.

Hope you remain safe and well in your neck of Illinois and hope that the weather gods will give us all a big reprieve from this nationwide armageddon REAL SOON!
Hi Mass, was going to post on your blog (which is just excellent, though horrifying with all the damage reports and all) but thought you may be resting. Maybe adreneline is still going for you.
Hope you are able to get some sleep. Really grateful you have a nice calm weather day for all of the poor victims to begin their clean up and assess the damages.

Thank you for the information and just hope all is well in his neck of the woods. Thinking good thoughts...you take care of yourself and thank you again for all the updates on your blog. What a year!
Lots and lots of Flash Flood alerts from Iowa and the Central parts of IL. Sorry I am so bad about posting these. Please see the alerts section for a list. It appears they have had 3 inches of rainfall extremely quickly on already saturated soil and creekbeds, etc...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 652 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
SOME STORMS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...WINCHESTER...ALEXANDER...ALSEY...AR ENZVILLE...
ASHLAND...BLUFFS...CHAPIN...EXETER...FRANKLIN...LI TERBERRY...
MANCHESTER...MEREDOSIA...MURRAYVILLE...NAPLES...WA VERLY AND
WOODSON.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021957Z - 022200Z

CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AHEAD OF REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT MCS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF MCV TO PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL MO WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG. IF DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR INTO ERN
MO...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP AHEAD OF MCV
LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AOA 30 KTS...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

..JIRAK.. 06/02/2011

Hi,Jus and Mass,finally made it in briefly today,and Mass is right,been one of heck of a day,laptop issues,work issues.Wifes health issues,thankfully no tornado issues.That was just and unbelievable occurence yesterday,something we just don't see here in New England,feel so bad for those people out there in the western portion of our state. 4 deaths have been confirmed.
Just stopped over by your blog NEw, response is there. Glad you are ok.

Central IL seems to be in one of the hot seats today.


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAINT LOUIS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 419...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL MO...NEAR A REMNANT MCV. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHER STORMS POTENTIALLY FORM ALONG OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MCV TO SOUTH OF STL. STRONG DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND AMPLE CAPE WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...HART

Made a slideshow of flowers to Vivaldi 'Spring'
It's sort of long, sry...but maybe enjoy while winding down from a long day, or waking with a nice cup of coffee...;)


<>a href="Click to play this Smilebox slideshowCreate your own slideshow - Powered by SmileboxFree digital slideshow customized with Smilebox" target="_blank">
Hi Jus, wishing you a very Happy Birthday. May your day and year be a happy one.
Birthday hugs from Pros.
Happy Birthday Pictures, Graphics, Images, Comments
Happy Birthday Comments Pictures - Photobucket
I'll be back to listen to Vivaldi and enjoy the rest of the latest posts.
130. Ylee
Happy birthday, jus!

Happy Birthday.:)
You are so good at making videos from your photos .... I loved the spring flowers...

Your birthday today? Many Happy returns.... wishing you a very happy year.
{{{JUS}}}!!!


................

................

BIG HUGS AND HAVE A GREAT ONE!!!

Pros, thank you! And thanks for watching the slide show, too. The Iris are in full symphony and look like they are all playing strings or opening their 'arms' to the sun. More white ones should open today. Hope your day is pleasant, too!

Cute Ylee! Thank you very much!

Hi Mush! That is a really, really good picture. Adorable. Thank you for the Birthday Wish.

Hi Sandi, thank you, too! Now, if I could only focus the darn camera better and learn more about working with its limitation for dof etc...but sometimes the effects are interesting. I switch the settings a lot to see what happens. I shoot flowers on the 'food' setting, etc...If I could remember which darn settings produce which darn effects, it may help. For some reason, with this digital camera I have, there are soooo many settings it is hard to break it down and know what the 'shutter and ap' 'meter' and all the doohickeys are doing. Hurts my brain. So I 'play' lol.

Mass! Thank you for the always superb, colorful, cheerful birthday graphic! Was reading your blog this morning and will stop by to leave a comment or discuss...really just happy you did not get hurt my friend.

Going to the White Sox Game tonight with Son#2 and his GF and hubby. Nose bleed section (kids got the tickets on a tight budget, lol) but I'm thrilled. Son and I have gone to the Sox game for his birthday for almost every one of his birthdays--his b-day is June 10. This time, he bought me the tickets, and surprised me (us).

Here is his picture of (I think) his 2nd game when he was 5 years old. I got him the whole outfit, mit and all. OK collective AWWWEEEE!!! (He's 6'2 and huge now, will be 20 this year)...alright I'm gonna go check the weather...enough sap and Birthday rambling! Thanks again everyone!

Photobucket">




Happy Birthday from a Sultry, Humid New Orleans


Thank you Patrap! Very cute!
Hi,Jus,Iam using my new work laptop,to say it was difficult getting this back so I can have things the way my old laptop,well difficult doesnt cover what its taken.Lets just say I had to bite my lip from screaming here at work.
Really has cooled off here,48 degrees this morning,and cool and breezy during the day. Good weather for the poor people that have to go throught their personal belongings where the tornadoes hit.pictures and videor are unbelievable. Hard to believe they were in New England. one tornado has already been rated an EF-3.Waiting for reports on the other two.
So glad its the weekend,dont' think I could have made it another day.
Happy Birthday kid. Hope you have a great day and that its filled with fun, laughter and lots of love... BIG HUGS
Jus,forgot to wish you a very very happy birthday.

Thank you sooo much Alley. Every time I cook something new or from a recipe, I think of you ;)

NEw, ty ty that's funny! TGIF to you, as I said. You sure need it!

Taking off soon for the ball game. Be well everyone and thank you so much again! Have a great Friday night!
Photobucket


What a beautiful child (photo in the header).
Hi JS, didn't realize that it was you birthday till seeing the posts. Here is a belated Happy Birthday. Love all the pictures of flowers and animals. You comment 127 post must have taken a lot of time to put together. Very nice and nicely done.
Hi MN, thank you so much! It took about 1 hour and a half, very relaxing work to make that. Hope you have a good weekend!
Pros, hello thank you for the rose and the weekend wishes. Happy you enjoyed the photo.

The ball game couldn't have been more perfect last night! It was still 79 degrees at 8:30 pm and just was a really beautiful night to be downtown. We had a wonderful time.

Turning attention a bit to this afternoon/evenings weather and will post the spc in a minute because it may go severe here in IL.

Our local discussion: (would like to pull a previous radar of the rogue cell he talks about in the 2nd discussion to see this arc flow boundary)

Izzi! Newest Discussion 12:52 pm

Mesoscale discussion...
1252 PM CDT


Shallow convection that had been developing along the outflow
boundary over northwestern Illinois has choked on the convective
inhibition as they moved east. A couple of recent acars soundings
from Ord show a very formidable cap present...much stronger than what
had been forecast by most models. In fact...plugging in current
T/dew point at Ord into one of these soundings yields sbcinh around 100
j/kg. This should be more than sufficient to not only prevent
convection from firing along this quickly advancing outflow
boundary...but also keep a lid on any convection firing along the
lake breeze for the next hour or two at least.


Radar/satellite trends have shown a recent deepening of convection
over southern/eastern Iowa...which is likely indicative of a weaker
cap in place there as height falls and a glancing blow of uvv's from
shortwave passing by to the north likely have eroded the cap
somewhat. This trend should continue eastward into northern Illinois
and now thinking that the convection over eastern/southern Iowa has
a better chance of becoming the more robust and sustainable
convection/severe threat for US this afternoon. The orientation of
this convection is even more east-west than with the initial outflow
surge and again could pose a very real threat for flash flooding.


Izzi

Previous 11:42 am discussion

1145 am CDT...
atmosphere continues to Cook over the County Warning Area this morning with full
sunshine allowing temperatures to climb into the middle-upper 80s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s. Modifying morning soundings for
current conditions and Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis both suggest atmosphere is
growing strongly unstable with convective inhibition quickly
decreasing.


One rogue long-lived thunderstorm continues to track along the
Illinois/WI border with high resolution visible satellite imagery
showing an outflow boundary arcing south then southwest from this
cell. This outflow boundary would certainly seem to be a prime
candidate to focus convective initiation this afternoon as
remaining convective inhibition is removed.


Strongly veered low level flow is reducing deep later shear
values with the strongest shear in the Post frontal/outflow
environment. Even still...30-40kt of flow in the 6km layer should
be sufficient to result in 20-30kt of deep layer shear and
evolution into organized multi-cellular cluster.


Despite the somewhat marginal deep layer shear values...MLCAPE
values over 3500 j/kg and steep middle-level lapse rates still
support a threat for large hail...particularly before convection
morphs into line/cluster. Strong instability/steep lapse rates
also support a threat of wet-microbursts and localized wind
damage. Threat for wind damage could tend to increase over our southeast
County Warning Area as convection will have more time/opportunity to have
developed a cold pool and mesoscale organization by that point.


Probably one of the bigger threats this afternoon could evolve into
heavy rainfall/flash flooding...especially south of Interstate 80.
The very moist environment and high precipitation efficiency could
result in some extreme rainfall rates...possibly over two inches
per hour. Outflow boundary/front is becoming oriented more east-
west over southeast Iowa into northwest Illinois which is more aligned with
the mean flow and anticipated storm motion. This could result in
at least some temporary training cells...which given potential for
such high precipitation rates could result in flash flooding. Did
consider a short fused Flash Flood Watch but decided to just hit
the potential hard in severe weather potential statement since it is not currently expected to
turn into anything very widespread of major.


Izzi





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO AND MID MS VLYS
EWD INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS NOW CONTROLLING CIRCULATION OVER MUCH OF
CONUS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP COLD LOW STALLS OFF CA COAST AND
PRIMARY WESTERLIES REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA.

COLD FRONT THIS MORNING STRETCHES WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI TO
IL/WI BORDER AND THEN NWRN MO TO SE CO. ERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL
CONT SLOW SEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD LOWER LAKES AND INTO NRN OH VALLEY
WHILE TRAILING PORTION STALLS. PORTION OF FRONT CENTRAL HI PLAINS
WILL LIKELY DRIFT A LITTLE N THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS ERN CO.

A RESERVOIR OF MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES JUST AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT FROM MID MS VALLEY EWD TO SRN LM/IND...GRADUALLY
SPREADING FURTHER E THIS AFTERNOON.

...MID MS AND OH VLYS TO LWR GRT LKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TNGT...

THE CURRENT MCS RIDING SEWD ATOP THE RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS ERN LE
INTO NWRN PA. EXPECT THE OBSERVED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT BEYOND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM INTO NWRN PA.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG...IS
ALREADY AVAILABLE S OF FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO NRN IND. WITH THE CAP
NEARLY GONE...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO MCSS THAT WILL MOVE MAINLY ESE
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS UPSCALE GROWTH COULD LEAD TO A GREATER
WIND DAMAGE THREAT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN AREA OF
STRONGER WAA OVER OH/WV/WRN PA. FURTHER W ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN MO
POTENTIAL OF MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN FURTHER E
UNDER A WEAKER SHEAR REGIME.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
UPSLOPE TO N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO AND DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MLCAPES
AOA 1500 J/K WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. PRIMARILY HAIL WILL BE THE
INITIAL THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADO'S BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CO.

...GULF CST REGION THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WITH SFC HEATING
TODAY ALONG THE GULF CST FROM SE TX/LA EWD INTO FL AS TEMPS WARM
WELL INTO THE 90S. SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW
WET MICRO BURSTS AND/OR SVR HAIL EVENTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20-02Z.

..HALES/SMITH.. 06/04/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
Who knew? sry...no, I could actually feel it. Sitting in the screen porch being lazy today, puttering a bit in the yard. Could feel it coming.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041827Z - 041930Z

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN OH
VALLEY PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FLATTENING PROCESS SHOULD LEAD TO A ZONE OF
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHIFTING INTO NRN IL/IND WHICH
WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE MI BREEZE. STRONG SUNSHINE HAS STEEPENED
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER IS NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE
BREEZE...PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA INTO NWRN IL WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING NOW OBSERVED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. RECENT HRRR MODEL
SUPPORTS ROBUST CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NRN IL/IND BY 19Z...AND
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY IT WOULD SEEM TO BE SUPPORTED BY
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED SOON.

..DARROW.. 06/04/2011





Watch issued:


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

parts of northeast Illinois
much of northern Indiana
parts of Southern Lower Michigan
parts of Northwest Ohio
Lake Erie
Lake Michigan


Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
900 PM CDT.


Hail to 2.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south
southwest of Marseilles Illinois to 35 miles south southeast of
Mount Clemens Michigan. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou6).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... with air mass across the watch very unstable with
MLCAPES aoa 3000j/kg and little remaining cinh... thunderstorms
expected to develop rapidly remainder of afternoon and spread
eastward. With steep lapse rates coupled with 30-40kt of
shear... large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms. Initial development will take place on subtle
surface boundaries such as lake breeze fronts of lm/LH.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm
motion vector 27025.


... Hales


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HINCKLEY...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK...AND MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELBURN AROUND 310 PM CDT.
SUGAR GROVE AROUND 315 PM CDT.
NORTH AURORA...MONTGOMERY AND GENEVA AROUND 325 PM CDT.
AURORA...BATAVIA AND OSWEGO AROUND 330 PM CDT.
WARRENVILLE AROUND 340 PM CDT.
NAPERVILLE AND WINFIELD AROUND 345 PM CDT.
LISLE AND WHEATON AROUND 350 PM CDT.
WOODRIDGE AND DOWNERS GROVE AROUND 355 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOULDER
HILL AND GLENBARD SOUTH.


1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...


* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS FIRST STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OSWEGO...AND THE SECOND WAS NEAR NEWARK. BOTH ARE
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PLAINFIELD AROUND 345 PM CDT.
SHOREWOOD AROUND 350 PM CDT.
MINOOKA AROUND 355 PM CDT.
LEMONT...ROCKDALE...LOCKPORT AND JOLIET AROUND 400 PM CDT.
HOMER GLEN AND INGALLS PARK AROUND 405 PM CDT.
NEW LENOX AND ELWOOD AROUND 410 PM CDT.
ORLAND PARK AROUND 415 PM CDT.
MOKENA AND MANHATTAN AROUND 420 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
CRYSTAL LAWNS...CREST HILL...FAIRMONT...PRESTON HEIGHTS...ORLAND
HILLS...FRANKFORT SQUARE AND EAST HAZEL CREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

2.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR OAK PARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CICERO...STICKNEY...HUMBOLDT PARK AND FOREST VIEW AROUND 350 PM
CDT.
MIDWAY AIRPORT AROUND 355 PM CDT.
DOUGLAS PARK...CHICAGO AND NAVY PIER AROUND 400 PM CDT.
BRIDGEPORT...NORTHERLY ISLAND AND ENGLEWOOD AROUND 405 PM CDT.
HYDE PARK AROUND 415 PM CDT.
CHATHAM AROUND 420 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SOUTH
CHICAGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The severe thunderstorm warnings are getting a bit frequent as the heat of the day kicks in (among other things) There have been 2 new thunderstorm warnings issued for IL and IN, and in Iowa, and they will continue.

Map of severe is above, but see Wunderground Severe map for details as they come in. Some of these moving along are quite strong. May have sent a lot of Lake Michigan beach goers running for cover.
lots of lightning ahead of those storms in Chicago area...
Hi Wabit, yes...I think they intensified toward the lake. And, Quad Cities just issued one for their region, too. Looks just West of you.

NWS just issued a TS Warning out for the Peoria area till midnight...
Cleaning the deck (every rung) and in and out, just saw the SPC discussion for that potential watch and it was already issued. Then a warning from Lincoln service.

As that last storm moved through Chicago, heading to Indiana it has completely intensified, and there is a tornado warning. This was in the discussion earlier and it always amazes how right on they are--OH, IN...But, we could see some, too, if I understood it correctly. (Earlier in the posts)

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY...
SOUTHERN PORTER COUNTY...


* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HEBRON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KOUTS AROUND 455 PM.
DUNNS BRIDGE AROUND 500 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!

Hebron, IN, not Illinois.








Alert radio went off. Coffee.

Guess this storm in WI is pushing our way.
Don't think it will get too far South into IL.

It's got some umph to it (a bit of rotation, hmmm). I'm up.
(add: cell TO was pretty strong just East of Madison. It's still going but considerably weaker at the moment.)





The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

a small part of northeast Illinois
central and eastern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan

Effective this Monday morning from 705 am until noon CDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west
northwest of Green Bay Wisconsin to 45 miles south southwest of
Racine Wisconsin. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou2).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 431...

Discussion... area of elevated tstms... including occasional
supercells... expected to continue moving/developing generally E with
associated waa zone through later this morning. Area thermodynamic
and wind data would suggest a continued threat for sporadic svr
hail... especially with any storms that may assume a supercellular
structure.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 30025.



Yes, 'in some form'...




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431...

VALID 061115Z - 061245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431
CONTINUES.

DUAL SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WERE ONGOING ACROSS S
CNTRL WI THIS MORNING...SUPPORTED BY A WLY LOW LEVEL JET/INSTABILITY
FEED AND MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE STORMS...BEING
SUPERCELLS...ARE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOW COMPARED TO EARLIER ACTIVITY
AND OTHER WEAKER LEAD ACTIVITY OVER SERN WI.

THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN IL LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE CELLS REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR...THEY MAY END
UP DISSIPATING BEFORE THEY GET INTO IL DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS.

IF THEY PRODUCE A LARGER COLD POOL AND BEGIN TO BOW...THEY WOULD
LIKELY ACCELERATE SEWD WITH WIND AND HAIL THREAT...AND AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
GM,Jus,hope your weekend was good.We had a beautiful weekend,a little on the cool side, but great for yard work.Spent most of my weekend planting flowers,mowing lawn,picking up.The heat and humidity is coming back to us this week,along with storms off and on.Hopefully nothing too severe,people out in western mass are still trying to put their lives back together.
I am on my new work schedule so apologies if I can't post the weather sometimes when it is acting up in the mid-west, or visit much for a while. Please feel free to post something about mid-west weather if needed, since people may come here to look. Wisconsin seems to be in the hot seat again today...then Michigan.

Hi NEw, sounds like you had a really nice weekend. We did too. Absolutely beautiful weather for the Sox game Fri night, and all weekend.
Good luck to the Bruins. Maybe home, they will gain some momentum.
Have a good Monday.


Not much to report...kind of quiet--At least, I am-- Everyone else is going nuts around me though lol.

Thought about changing the blog, but...well I'll get to it eventually. Stay safe North!

Just popping in to say hi... new work schedules getting in the way of your weather reporting.... how dare they!!


Have a good week...I have appointments at the dentist, the eye clinic, the hairdresser and heading north to visit my niece and her little ones ~ she wants to know how to make a birthday cake!! lol
Hi Sandi, yes this work thing is sooo annoying, and tiring ;) Hope your appts go well and your trip sounds like it will be fun!
Kids are picking up Chinese Food. Yay. No cooking. Evening plans to continue working on the deck. It is like a green mildew thing. Not hard to wipe off, but I need to simonize it or find a product once I am done with the cleaning to keep it from happening again. It is like a trex material? How do I describe it? Fiberglass casings over wood...needs less care (yeah right!) May need a boating product to wax it? The actual deck is treated lumber and we decided not to paint it (because all my home inspectors say not to) 15 panels left to go toward the south, ugh.
Aren't ya glad ya stopped by for all the excitement? lols.

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Hi How can you let work get in the way of blogging.:)
Wow - what a difference between the before and after !

If I remember from previous photos it is such a large deck too!
Interested to hear that you are not painting your deck planks. After I had my deck steam cleaned I decided not to varnish it again, it just flakes off .
Are you going to wax it to help protect the wood - or what do your home inspectors say to do - leave it "au-natural" ?


Hi Mush, chuckle chuckle...

Heat alerts all over the place. Seems the lake is keeping us out of the worst of it. But heat indexes may rise into the 100's today and tomorrow. Knew it. Just knew it. We dove right into summer heat, after such a cold spring.

Sandi, I honestly can't remember if they said Water seal it or just leave it. But, staining and painting, I remember, is only cosmetic and not necessary. Now, if we were in a different setting, like with open yards and closer neighbors, I probably would stain it. We haven't done anything to it in six years though, except replace a few bad boards. I will try to find out.

It is HUMONGOUS. Like 60 ft x 25 and I'm not quite done cleaning it yet. Notice no flowers...uhm I tried to grow them this year instead of buying flats. It is not going well, lol.

Good morning,Jus,always fun working on the deck.I did my deck in mahoganey,which really stands up great in the winters.Just need to put timberoil on it every couple of years.
Was a bad day at work yesterday didn't get home until 7.Told my wife to grab a bottle of wine and lets go out on the deck,grilled some swordfish and had a nice quiet evening,so I could the thoughts of putting a contract out on my boss out of my head.We'll see if those thoughts come back today.
Concerned about possible severe storms on Thursday,will have to see how things setup.They mentioned possible rotating storms if shear increases.
Swordfish, mmmmm. Now that sounds awesome. Very good save on the horrible day at the end.
Mahogany stain? Hmmmm very pretty.
Good Morning Jus!

Sounds like you need all hands on your very large deck to assist you with its refurbishment! Have Molly and Meatloaf been trained to use a paintbrush yet? LOL!

Hope the weather in your area will hold up enough till its completion!

The temps are heating back up around here and I'm a tad edgy concerning the next heatwave and t'storms to effect us in the next couple of days. I'm praying that this sytem doesn't replicate the same conditions that produced last week's devastating tornadoes. There was a wind shear that effected some trees in a neighborhing town about a year ago, which is still too close for comfort to me. Can't wait till this miserable season is over with and hope that a much kinder gentler summer will be upon us all!! FEMA is already too overburdened and underfunded as it is!
Hey,Jus,don't be surprise if your air quality goes down with the smoke from the Arizona fires heading northeast first the upper plains,and maybe over toward you next couple of days,and no it has nothing to do with my grilling last night.
Just what we need, poorer air quality in IL, but just horrible situation in AZ. What a year. No other words but tragic this year. NEw, You did NOT burn that swordfish! Now that too would be truly tragic, lol.

Mass, your nervousness about the storms is heartfelt by me, as you know. Hope they pass without anyone or anything getting harmed. Is there such a thing as just a sunshower, or a light thunderstorm anymore? Like when we were kids? Always seems to be just violent lately.
Cuteeeee dogs w/the paintbrushes. Molly has been here, but Meatloaf is loafing over at the kids townhouse. Son #1 had about 3 days off from his hectic schedule at Walgreens. He is in Management training school for his own store. It is a lengthy process which will take some time. He passed the pre-test for the pharmacy tech and will take that full test soon. It apparently is grueling. Anyhoooo, Loaf is happy in the air conditioning. Molly seems to be hiding in the basement apartment of son #2. It's quite cool down there. Don't think I'll even go out there until it cools down a bit.

My work schedule has been interrupted by an alert for very heavy rain tomorrow night. We found another leak in the otherwise good roof at the place where our electric service comes in. (This is what I get for dusting the mantle by the fireplace in the corner) We didn't even know it was there, but I looked up, and uh ohhhh. So off to get a small tube of roofing cement, and a few roofing nails. Thank Gosh hubby is handy. I almost hated to point it out when he got home the other day. Seems like I always have to be the bearer of bad news like: "Hi, how was your day??? Uhm honey, ya know the roof??? Uhm welllll..."
Green mildew. Hmmm. Know it well. It is on the greenhouse exterior, on some exterior building walls, on the pick-up truck that doesn't get a space in the garage. And it's much worse this year than usual, no doubt because of the cooler-wetter year we've had thus far. No cure or preventative that I know of. If you find one, please pass it along.

And not only green mildew, but moss growing where I've never had a moss problem before. As soon as my weeding-and-planting efforts are done, I'll be breaking out the power washer and long-handled scrubber to do battle. So many other more fun things to do.

Speaking of which, I've finally managed to get my garden planted. Yeah!

Portland's Rose Festival has started, but due to the unspring we've had this year, they're having to import most of the roses. Bummer.

Sweet Spotlight
Official Rose of the 2011 Portland Rose Festival
Hi Briarcraft, at work so will be by a little later. I just got this tweet, but this may have hit the tv news by now. Not a lot of details, no information on any casualties.

F-16 fighter jet crashes in southern Wisconsin

MADISON, Wis. -- A fighter jet has crashed in southern Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Air National Guard officials say in a statement that an F-16 from the Madison-based 115th Fighter Wing went down early Tuesday afternoon near the town of Chester in Adams County during a routine training flight.

According to the Wisconsin State Journal, the plane went down about 1:20 p.m. five miles southwest of Westfield, Wis.

The pilot ejected and his condition is being evaluated.

The guard has requested U.S. Air Force investigators probe the cause of the crash. Guard spokeswoman Lt. Col. Jackie Guthrie didn't immediately return messages.


{This is not very far away from here, and we stop along I-94 on the way to Milwaukee to watch them fly sometimes. Hope all are ok.}
You never know what's going to fall from the sky.
Sheesh, right NEw who knows.
Oh Sorry, I thought these were out of Great Lakes, this was an F-16 from Madison.

This work thing is a good system, every time I get online to blog, the phones get busy, and I get business. Working out pretty darn well! :)

Hi Briarcraft, sorry about that earlier. Yes, it is worse this year. However now we've gone from 50 to 100 in less than a week. Wow! Highest temps here in 78 years for the date (according to some records set today)
I really think a top coat of some boat wax would help the green mildew situation. Funny you have moss where you've never seen it. Need to research it a bit but will let you know. I know taking some trees down for sun would help, but...

Soooo happy you got your garden in, but sorry about the rose festival. Strange bugs, strange weather, strange growing patterns. But hope your corn comes up! Even with the 100 degree heat (index) I still only see two which are sprouting in three rows...rut row! Haven't been over to the church, but I passed by and they had a scarecrow up (too cute). My MIL said the deer came and ate the cantaloupe leaves. I suppose they taste better than tomato leaves, lol.

Ok obviously, I'm beat and rambling. Tomorrow's wx looks a bit shaky with this front coming through. I may start a new blog, lol...but it may be full of real weather, imagine that!