Getting On the Chilly Side In N. IL

By: juslivn, 2:38 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

Fire Weather Watch

Statement as of 8:28 PM CDT on October 29, 2010

... Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening...

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening.

This includes the following fire weather zones...
in Illinois... 62... 63... 66... 67... 68... 71... 72... 73

Gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon combined with relative
humidity values between 20 and 30 percent and dry fuels may lead
to critical fire weather conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.



October 28, 2010 - Well the storm has passed and it surely was one for the record books. We only lost one big tree in the back woods without it damaging anything. Plenty of sticks and leaves to clean up. Prayers for all who did not get by without troubles.
Cold tonight, with freeze warnings throughout IL. May drop down to 26! Keep warm All! Thanks for checking in and all your thoughts and comments throughout the past few days!



Oct. 25th - I'm getting a little more serious, as are others on the blogs talking about this event shaping up. Warning is posted below. Be safe all.

Huhm 79 degrees! in Chicago! On October 25th! Rut Row. Play spooky music.
Me thinks I'm gonna get my bucket picture out
cause me thinks I may need a bucket over my head
for the next few days.
Oh, and some of those doggy tranquilizer's--for ME!

High wind alert has now changed to a warning.
Will post if we go severe. Central IL, heads up!!! IN heads up!
Be safe all!

Ick! One of my least favorite four letter words!

High Wind Warning

Statement as of 4:38 AM CDT on October 25, 2010

... High Wind Warning in effect from 7 am Tuesday to 7 PM CDT

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a High Wind
Warning... which is in effect from 7 am Tuesday to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.

* Timing... Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

* Winds... sustained at 30 to 40 mph... with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Impacts... non secure objects may become airborne. Falling tree
limbs and sporadic power outages can be expected. Travel may
become difficult... with high profile vehicles becoming
difficult to control.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.


Updated: 3:40 AM GMT on October 30, 2010


And, cooler by the Lake

By: juslivn, 6:11 AM GMT on October 09, 2010

Fire Weather Warning

Statement as of 1:33 PM CDT on October 20, 2010

... Red flag warning in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a red flag
warning... which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

Southwest winds will gust to 20 mph or more this afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity will be 20 to 30 percent. The
wind and the low humidity will contribute to an increased fire
danger this afternoon. Lack of rain and low humidity has created
very dry conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now... or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds... low relative humidity... and warm temperatures will
create explosive fire growth potential.

October 19 - eh, almost 20th...Avatar went missing so I changed it.

Well, I can hear a squirrel in the woods at about 100 yards away, very, very dry here with all the leaves. May put the baby pool in the yard for the animals and birds. Probably should seriously water tomorrow.

'Pattern shift' doesn't look like it's happening until early next week. Anticipated the fire hazard info would creep into the discussion again. Tomorrow will get a bit windy--just on the verge of a fire alert, according to the discussion.

Watching 99L. Watching Megi. Prayers up!

Discussion highlights:
Fire weather...
413 PM CDT {10/19/2010}

...Dry weather will persist across the area through Wednesday. Winds
Wednesday afternoon will become gusty from the southwest...as dew
points fall to the lower to middle 30s. Fuel moisture levels are
expected to approach 8 to 9 Wednesday afternoon. This combined with
afternoon temperatures in the 60s will result in relative humidity
values approaching 25 percent...or near red flag warning criteria.



Izzi cracks me up sometimes...Forecast discussion is very long...but scroll to highlighted area for a chuckle.
On a more serious note: the fire hazard potential creeps into the report. Very concerned about that with all the leaves falling, etc...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois
1113 am CDT Thursday Oct 14 2010

322 am CDT

Dry but somewhat active weather through the weekend...followed by
what could be a pretty dismal start to the upcoming work week.

A much more seasonable and somewhat chilly air mass has taken up
residence across much of the nations middle section east into the
western Great Lakes this morning in the wake the trough and
associated front that swept through about 24 hours ago. Sprawling
surface high stretching from the Southern Plains to the upper
Mississippi Valley is making quick progress southeast as next
vigorous shortwave trough seen on water vapor imagery just NE of
Lake Winnipeg digs southward. Deepening surface cyclone should track
southeast into Ontario today allowing winds to back to southwest
with a very brief shot of warm air advection before next cold front
sweeps across the area early this evening.

Air mass behind this front should be a bit colder than the current
air mass...which will probably be a bit more effective at cranking
up the lake effect machine tonight. Once again vigorous trough aloft
with cold middle level temperatures and steep middle level lapse rates should
allow rather Deep Lake effect convection tonight. Unlike tonight
greater low level instability should set the stage for more
widespread lake effect showers than the very isolated activity over far
south tip of the lake this morning. Forecast soundings over the lake
do show lower inversion heights Friday however low level flow
veering to more northerly could allow for some lake effect showers
to back west into our Northwest Indiana counties Friday morning and
possibly very early afternoon before lake effect machine shuts down.
800 mb temperatures just barely above zero should result in highs struggling to
reach 60 most areas...particularly down wind of Lake Michigan over northwest
in and along the immediate Illinois shoreline where lake effect cloudiness
should keep temperatures a few degrees colder.

Much like in the cinematic classic groundhog day...we will do it all
over again. Warm air advection will ramp up late Friday night and
particularly into Saturday in advance of the next shortwave. There
are some indications that Saturday could be a bit breezier and
warmer than Thursday...which given the dry air mass in place could
start to put US precariously close to critical fire weather
thresholds. Given the somewhat Stout southwest winds...800 mb temperatures
prognosticated to warm to 10-13c...and possibly a bit of compressional
warming in advance of the front have gone above objective guidance
and would expect most areas to at least eclipse 70 if not climb

into the 70s Saturday.

Dry cold frontal passage Sat night should knock temperatures down to near
or slightly below average Sunday. Other than bumping temperatures up Sat
probably the biggest change to the going forecast was to the Monday
time range. 00z GFS and the previous two runs of the European model (ecmwf) suggest
that the front will stall out downstate as a northern stream
shortwave trough digs into the Midwest. Backing low and middle level
flow in advance of this wave will result in a tightening middle level
front along with increasing isentropic ascent with rain likely to
break out in advance of this trough Monday. Have only just begun to
trend monday's forecast from nice to kinda crummy...however if
latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) are right it will be downright dismal with rain and
chilly NE winds with afternoon temperatures only in the 50s (if we're

No other changes made to going grids beyond Monday...


We do need the rain, so hoping we get a bit.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois
453 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 12 2010

337 PM CDT

Oct. 11
Tonight...a surface cold front over central Iowa will move through
north central Illinois before midnight. The front will move
through northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana after midnight.
The front may produce some scattered showers. We will hold off on
thunderstorms at this time. The lifted index...a measure of
stability...was forecast to be negative along the front. The
values of this lifted index were minus 1.5 to minus 2.1 early
Wednesday morning. This is at the threshold for thunderstorms. So
an adjustment for thunderstorms may be made to the forecast after
the 00 UTC upper air data arrives. Will use the MOS guidance and
locally run wrfems for the high and low temperature forecast and
dewpoint forecast for tonight through the next three days.


Not the best pics...but sort of a change.

The tree is a very young red oak which was getting choked out by other trees. We rescued it a couple of weeks ago--cut away the other bad trees around it-- and low and behold it is has transformed into one of the prettiest trees in the yard. Oh, and threw in the woodpeckers, and a rose.

NEXT WEEK. Nuff said.

Prayers to all still in flood. Those dealing with storms. Families and victims in AZ tornadoes and beyond. Be safe all ships in port, and at sea.

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Updated: 8:39 PM GMT on October 20, 2010


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About juslivn

Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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