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Tallahassee, Fl forecast discussion 4-27-13

By: jaws2003, 3:58 PM GMT on April 27, 2013

Tallahassee forecast discussion 4/27/13

Short term(Today-Monday morning)
Currently a high pressure ridge dominates the local area bringing normal temperatures for this time of the year. Today the high will be around 81F. For tonight lows will be around 65F with some rain coming to our area during the evening hours. Sunday will be slightly cooler than the previous day and temperatures will be under the average for this time of the year. The high for Sunday will be around 72F and the low for Sunday night/Monday morning will be around 63F with a chance of rain during the evening hours.

Long term(Monday night-Friday)
The long term period will be very active with weather next week. The current run for the NAM and GFS models are in very good agreement with each other about the active weather next week. Monday evening will be affected by a lingering system in our area bringing rain. Tuesday more rain will be in the area from moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico coming into our area and the slow moving low pressure disturbance from Monday. Wednesday will be the same but with the moisture only coming from the Gulf. During this time the models project a incoming frontal system forming from the west. Thursday a low pressure systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico will impact our area for this day bringing more rain to the area. This low will is predicted to be slow moving which will bring more rain to our local area. Late Thursday/Friday morning the cold front is projected to impact our area and bring some rain as well moving out of our area by Friday night. The major theme for the long term period at this point would be flooding with the slow moving systems to impact our area projected by the NAM and GFS. Rivers and streams will be watched for any flooding. Temperatures during this period will range around the upper 70s to low 80s during this period until the next cold front arrives bringing cooler temperatures.


Tallahassee, Fl forecast discussion 4-19-13

By: jaws2003, 3:52 PM GMT on April 20, 2013

Short Term(today-Monday morning)

Today after the passing of the cold front temperatures are cooler and conditions are drier for today. With cloud cover in the area expect highs for today to be around 71F. For tonight expect lows to be around 49F. Sunday will be about the same as Saturday with highs reaching around 70F. The highs for this time of the year are slightly below climatology averages but the lows are very close. For Sunday night/Monday morning lows will be around 60F which is much warmer than the seasonal averages.

Long Term(Monday afternoon-Friday)
The long term period begins with some more instability coming into the area from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon bringing rain to the area. Both the NAM and GFS are currently in agreement with the GFS being a little more aggressive than the NAM. Wednesday will be the the arrival of another cold front from the northwest but with the current model run from the GFS this cold front is expected to dissipate by the time it reaches the Tallahassee area.. Thursday there will be a chance of more showers to the area from the front that will be coming through the area. It is possible that this front will regain some strength because of convection in on that day.


Tallahassee, FL forecast discussion 4-13-13

By: jaws2003, 4:11 PM GMT on April 13, 2013

Short Term(Today-Monday Morning)
Today's weather will be high with around 82F. Currently there is a high pressure system in the area but there is a small disturbance on the way from the southwest and will affect the Tallahassee area tomorrow. Tonight's low will be around 58F. Sunday will be a time for saturation because there will be a system coming from the Gulf and bringing precipitation. Both NAM and GFS models have the system coming in on Sunday bringing in rain. Both are projecting this system to move through the area all day Sunday eventually leaving on Monday. Even with this precipitation highs will be around 70F. Lows for Sunday night/Monday morning will be around 65F. With precipitation coming there is no worry for any dry conditions for wildfires.

Long term(Monday night-Friday)
The long term period begins as a very active period with a brief break and then more weather to come our way by the mid to end of the period. Both the NAM and GFS models are in agreement about the formation of a low pressure system in the gulf and will arrive on Sunday but the GFS is slightly more aggressive than the NAM. After the low pressure system clears the area there will be some clear and warmer weather from Tuesday-Thursday. On Friday there is a frontal system that is expected to come into the area to bring more rain to the area. Both models are predicting temperatures to be in the low 80s to mid 80s during this period.


Tallahassee, FL forecast discussion 4-6-13

By: jaws2003, 4:02 PM GMT on April 06, 2013

Tallahassee Forecast Discussion 4-6-13

Short Term(Today-Monday Morning)
Currently a high pressure system is dominating the area bringing pleasant weather and dry conditions. Today’s highs will be around 75F for Tallahassee and for tonight the low will be around 52F. For Sunday the high will be around 78F and the low for Sunday night/Monday morning will be around 56F. These temperatures are slightly warmer than the climatology temperatures for this time of the year. RAP model does not show any developing systems to enter the area during the short term period.

Long term(Monday afternoon-Friday)
Currently the NAM and GFS models are currently in agreement for the long term period. The high pressure system will continue to dominate the area until Thursday which during this time a frontal system will impact the area. Currently the GFS model has the system arriving around 18Z on Thursday but the time may change as we approach Thursday. Maximum temperatures during the long term period are predicted to be around 75-80F during the week which is above climatology numbers for this time of the year.


update to 3-30-13

By: jaws2003, 3:57 AM GMT on April 02, 2013

current 0Z model runs of the NAM and GFS are more into agreement. Currently there is a system still projected to come to the Tallahassee area. In this model run the NAM is more aggressive than the GFS but they still have the storm arriving in the area around the same time of 18Z. The GFS is showing the system slightly to the west on this coming Wednesday. Temperatures during this period are still projected to be around the mid to upper 70s.


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About jaws2003

I come from a small town just 45 minutes away from Tallahassee, Fl and since I was about 12 I enjoyed the weather and how it always changing.

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