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Tropical Storm GIL/90E 60%

By: hurricanes2018 , 10:51 PM GMT on March 12, 2013

















pool picture (hurricanes2018)
pool picture
noaa weather radio (hurricanes2018)
noaa weather radio
cold beer (hurricanes2018)
cold beer
storm picture (hurricanes2018)
storm picture
Invest 99E ON 18z GFS (hurricanes2018)
The 18z GFS was much more realistic with Invest 99E than its predecessor, which made the system a Category 2 hurricane. We have a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 here
Invest 99E ON 18z GFS
Tropical Storm GIL and invest 90E (hurricanes2018)
WATCHING BOTH STORMS! ON JULY 30 2013
Tropical Storm GIL and invest 90E

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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2002. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:48 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
hurricanes2018 has created a new entry.
2001. hurricanes2018
2:39 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
Will be interesting to see if any of that moisture maximum makes it way into the Atlantic over the next two weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2000. hurricanes2018
2:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
invest 90E IN RED 60%
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1999. hurricanes2018
2:35 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
gTropical Storm GIL going to start moving northwest soon.
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1998. hurricanes2018
2:30 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
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1997. hurricanes2018
2:28 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
update!
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1996. hurricanes2018
2:24 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
Tropical Storm GIL/90E
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1995. hurricanes2018
2:19 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
Quoting 1984. Camille33:
Looks like ts Gil going to Hawaii.
lets hope not!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1994. hurricanes2018
2:18 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
we get a new update on Tropical Storm GIL at 11pm..i bet you the winds will pick up at 11pm update!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1993. hurricanes2018
2:17 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.
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1992. hurricanes2018
2:13 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
where is Tropical Storm GIL going?? right now is moving wnw at 10pmh
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1991. hurricanes2018
2:12 AM GMT on July 31, 2013

Tropical Storm GIL
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1990. hurricanes2018
2:09 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
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1989. hurricanes2018
2:05 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
update!!
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1988. hurricanes2018
1:39 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1987. hurricanes2018
1:37 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 116.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1986. hurricanes2018
1:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
Quoting 1984. Camille33:
Looks like ts Gil going to Hawaii.
watch out for invest 90E to
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1985. hurricanes2018
1:36 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1984. Camille33
9:38 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Looks like ts Gil going to Hawaii.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1983. hurricanes2018
9:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1974. Camille33:
Did they deactivate 91l??
NO MORE INVEST 91L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1982. hurricanes2018
9:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2013

Tropical Storm GIL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1981. hurricanes2018
9:13 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1980. hurricanes2018
9:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1979. hurricanes2018
9:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1978. hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm GIL
2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 30
Location: 12.7°N 116.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 116.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1978. hurricanes2018
9:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Tropical Storm GIL
2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 30
Location: 12.7°N 116.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1977. hurricanes2018
9:00 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1975. mitchelace5:


Seems like it.
no more invest 91L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1976. hurricanes2018
9:00 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E...LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1975. mitchelace5
8:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1974. Camille33:
Did they deactivate 91l??


Seems like it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1974. Camille33
8:37 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Did they deactivate 91l??
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1973. hurricanes2018
7:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1972. hurricanes2018:
We have 90E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307301840
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013073018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013073018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1087W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



90E 18z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2013073018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1085W, 25, 1009, DB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1972. hurricanes2018
7:02 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
We have 90E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307301840
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013073018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013073018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1087W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1971. hurricanes2018
6:42 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Reports: A-Rod suspension could be imminent
It's become increasingly difficult to predict what will happen next in the daily drama surrounding Alex Rodriguez.

Rodriguez finished up his rehab assignment with complaints of a strained left quadriceps, only to say days later that he was ready to play. He sent Dr. Michael Gross on an impromptu media tour to challenge the Yankees' diagnosis, then Gross admitted he's never even met A-Rod. Rodriguez released a statement Thursday saying he didn't want "any more mix-ups" with the Yankees, then called into WFAN radio in New York and said four times that he was "frustrated" with being held back.

Rodriguez has been working out at the Yankees' Minor League complex, hoping to return from his quad injury and get back on the field as soon as possible. Aside from his occasional statements released through a publicist and a few radio interviews, A-Rod has remained silent.

But one thing has become exceedingly clear, based on several published reports this weekend and on Monday: He soon will be disciplined by Major League Baseball.

And Rodriguez's lawyer, David Cornwell, left no doubt Monday afternoon in a radio interview with ESPN New York 98.7 FM: They're not going to accept a suspension.

"All I can tell you is my job is to represent Alex in connection with this inquiry by baseball and to prepare an appeal on behalf of Alex in the event that any discipline is handed down," Cornwell said in an interview with Stephen A. Smith.

"When the time comes, and we haven't gotten there yet, when the time comes and baseball does whatever it is going to do, then I will sit down with Alex and talk to him about the process of the appeal, filing the appeal and going in and presenting our best evidence that we have -- and we think we have good evidence -- to defend his interest, to protect him. That's what I expect to be doing."

The New York Post first reported Sunday that Rodriguez could be suspended this week as part of baseball's investigation into the now-shuttered Biogenesis clinic, a South Florida operation run by Anthony Bosch, who has cooperated with MLB investigators. Last week, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun accepted a 65-game suspension -- the remainder of the season -- for his reported involvement with Bosch and Biogenesis.

Cornwell told ESPN New York he wouldn't consider that a victory for Rodriguez. Asked by Smith what he would consider a "win" in this case, Cornwell said, "No discipline. ... Obviously. That's easy."

According to the Post, MLB could suspend Rodriguez for the rest of this year and the entirety of the 2014 season. Under baseball's Basic Agreement, first-time offenders who test positive for performing-enhancing drugs are suspended 50 games for a positive test. A second positive test earns a 100-game ban and a third violation results in a lifetime ban.

But those standards might not apply in the case of Rodriguez. The Associated Press reported Monday that MLB could try to suspend Rodriguez under its collective bargaining agreement rather than its drug policy. That would allow MLB to suspend him immediately rather than have the suspension delayed during the appeals process.

The New York Daily News reported that MLB officials believe their evidence against Rodriguez "would warrant lifetime banishment." There has been talk that Braun's quick agreement strengthens Bosch's credibility as it relates to MLB's case against A-Rod, an idea that Cornwell addressed Monday.

"Obviously they believe that he's credible. I have my concerns," said Cornwell, who previously represented Braun, the only Major League player to have a positive drug test overturned. "But what's most important is whether or not arbitrator [Fredric] Horowitz will believe that he's credible. That's something that we will present in the hearing room, not to the media."

Before a suspension is publicly issued, Rodriguez could choose to discuss a plea agreement with MLB, as Braun did. However, Rodriguez told WFAN's Mike Francesa on Thursday that his representatives hadn't had those discussions.

According to the Post, Rodriguez's team "met with MLB officials in the past few days," but not to discuss a settlement. Instead, A-Rod's representatives were just trying to "gain a better understanding of potential penalties."

If MLB is seeking a potential lifetime suspension for Rodriguez, who admitted in 2009 that he took performance-enhancing drugs while playing for the Rangers from 2001-03, then a settlement could result in him sitting out until 2015 without pay, according to the Daily News.

In that scenario, Rodriguez's suspension would be effective immediately. If the 38-year-old third baseman -- fifth on the all-time list with 647 career home runs -- is able to play after two major hip surgeries and two full years out of the game, it would also give him a chance to collect the $61 million the Yankees owe him from 2015-17, the remnants of the 10-year, $275 million deal he signed with New York in '07.

For now, it's uncertain when Rodriguez will get back on the field in a Major League game, if he will at all. But if the reports are true, the next chapter in A-Rod's story should be unfolding soon.

"I can't tell you what he's thinking about or what he says as it relates to the investigation, but I can tell you that in my discussions with him, generally, Alex's primary focus right now is playing baseball," Cornwell said. "That's what Alex's primary focus is right now. We'll have a chance to deal with these other issues as they arrive and as they unfold. ... When that time comes, we will. But until then ... the only thing Alex is focused on right now is trying to get back and play baseball
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1970. hurricanes2018
6:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1969. hurricanes2018
6:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E...LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1968. hurricanes2018
4:19 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Measurements tell us that global average sea level is currently rising by about 1 inch per decade. But in an invisible shadow process, our long-term sea level rise commitment or "lock-in" — the sea level rise we don't see now, but which carbon emissions and warming have locked in for later years — is growing 10 times faster, and this growth rate is accelerating.

An international team of scientists led by Anders Levermann recently published a study that found for every degree Fahrenheit of global warming due to carbon pollution, global average sea level will rise by about 4.2 feet in the long run. When multiplied by the current rate of carbon emissions, and the best estimate of global temperature sensitivity to pollution, this translates to a long-term sea level rise commitment that is now growing at about 1 foot per decade.

We have two sea levels: the sea level of today, and the far higher sea level that is already being locked in for some distant tomorrow.

In a new paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), I analyze the growth of the locked-in amount of sea level rise and other implications of Levermann and colleagues' work. This article and its interactive map are based on this new PNAS paper, and they include extended results.

To begin with, it appears that the amount of carbon pollution to date has already locked in more than 4 feet of sea level rise past today's levels. That is enough, at high tide, to submerge more than half of today's population in 316 coastal cities and towns (home to 3.6 million) in the lower 48 states.

By the end of this century, if global climate emissions continue to increase, that may lock in 23 feet of sea level rise, and threaten 1,429 municipalities that would be mostly submerged at high tide. Those cities have a total population of 18 million. But under a very low emissions scenario, our sea level rise commitment might be limited to about 7.5 feet, which would threaten 555 coastal municipalities: some 900 fewer communities than in the higher-emissions scenario.

To develop such figures, I combined my sea level debt findings with analysis from Climate Central's Surging Seas project, which is a national assessment and mapping of coastal vulnerability in the U.S. based primarily on elevation and census data.

A quick tour of the interactive map on this page shows that Florida is by far the most vulnerable state under any emissions scenario. Louisiana, New Jersey and North Carolina would also face enormous difficulties. If we call a place "threatened" when at least half of today's population lives below the locked-in future high tide line, then by 2100, under the current emissions trend, more than 100 cities and towns would be threatened in each of these states.

Nationally, the largest threatened cities at this level are Miami, Virginia Beach, Va., Sacramento, Calif., and Jacksonville, Fla.

If we choose 25 percent instead of 50 percent as the threat threshold, the lists all increase, and would include major cities like Boston, Long Beach, Calif., and New York City. The lists shrink if we choose 100 percent as the threshold for calling a community "threatened."

But each fraction is arbitrary, and true critical levels will depend on geography and economics. Some places when partly or wholly below sea level may be defensible, at least to some degree — like New Orleans with its network of levees and flood barriers. Other places may be indefensible with well under 25 percent of exposure. For example, South Florida will be very difficult to protect, due in large part to the porous bedrock underlying it.

Overall, this analysis does not account for potential engineering solutions; it is based simply on elevations.

The low-emissions scenario could reduce impacts substantially — by almost threefold — but is profoundly ambitious compared to current trends and policy discussions. It includes a halt to global emissions growth by 2020, followed by rapid global emissions reductions, and a massive program to remove carbon from the atmosphere, resulting in net negative emissions — atmospheric clean-up — by late in the century.

The big question hanging over this analysis is how quickly sea levels will rise to the committed levels. Neither Levermann and colleagues' analysis, nor my new paper, address this question.

In a loose analogy, it is much easier to know that a pile of ice in a warm room will melt, than to know exactly how fast it will melt.

Levermann and company do put an upper limit of 2,000 years on how long it will take the sea level commitments described here to play out. Recent research indicates that warming from carbon emitted today is essentially irreversible on the relevant timescales (in the absence of its massive-scale engineered removal from the atmosphere), and will endure for hundreds or thousands of years, driving this long run unstoppable sea level rise.

On the other hand, our sea level rise commitment may be realized well before two millennia from now. The average rate of global sea level rise during the 20th century was about half a foot per century. The current rate is 1 foot, or twice that. And middle-of-the-road projections point to rates in the vicinity of 5 feet per century by 2100.

Such rates, if sustained, would realize the highest levels of sea level rise contemplated here in hundreds, not thousands of years — fast enough to apply continual pressure, as well as threaten the heritage, and very existence, of coastal communities everywhere.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1967. hurricanes2018
3:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Remains of Dorian falling apart
The remains of Tropical Storm Dorian, located a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic, are headed west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Satellite images show that ex-Dorian has almost no heavy thunderstorms, and is being torn up by wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Dorian's remains a 20% chance of regenerating by Thursday. The primary impediment to development is the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west that ex-Dorian is running into. Strong upper-level southwesterly winds associated with this trough are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and driving dry air into the west side of ex-Dorian. This shear is not expected to relent at all during the next few days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predict that ex-Dorian will regenerate. Dorian's remains should continue moving west-northwest during the week, spreading over the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday and over Florida on Friday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1966. hurricanes2018
3:15 PM GMT on July 30, 2013

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
1500 UTC TUE JUL 30 2013


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 114.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 114.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1965. hurricanes2018
3:11 PM GMT on July 30, 2013

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1964. hurricanes2018
3:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1963. hurricanes2018
3:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
Dust of that magnitude will shut down the Eastern & Central Atlantic for a while. SST's should rise though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1962. hurricanes2018
1:22 PM GMT on July 30, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

jump up to 60 %
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1961. hurricanes2018
9:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FLOSSIE WAS OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION
OVER THE ISLANDS HAS NOW DISSIPATED AND THE CLOSEST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS NOW OVER 90 NM AWAY...TO THE SOUTH OF OAHU.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES GAVE CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0 TO 2.5. WE
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO A SOMEWHAT LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...BUT
WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER FLOSSIE
MAY BE TOO FAR GONE TO RECOVER. FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HOURS...BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...
AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.2N 158.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 23.0N 160.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 24.0N 164.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 24.6N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 170.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1960. hurricanes2018
9:47 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
Tropical Depression FLOSSIE Advisory Number 22
Issued at 1100 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 22.2N 158.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 290 degrees AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1959. hurricanes2018
6:03 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1958. hurricanes2018
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2013

strong>TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1957. hurricanes2018
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING A
SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 150
MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...BUT COULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE FOUND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$

its over!!! hahaha!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1956. hurricanes2018
5:23 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
653 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

HIC009-300745-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0119.130730T0453Z-130730T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUI HI-
653 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF MOLOKAI IN MAUI COUNTY

* UNTIL 945 PM HST

* AT 642 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN OVER HALAWA VALLEY ON THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF MOLOKAI. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING
WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MOLOKAI AIRPORT...MAUNALOA...KUALAPUU...KEPUHI...KAUNAKAKA I...
KALAUPAPA...HOOLEHUA AND HALAWA VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 945 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2127 15729 2120 15668 2099 15668 2102 15733

$$
LAU from T.D flossie
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1955. hurricanes2018
5:19 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
new update coming at 2am this morning!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1954. hurricanes2018
5:18 AM GMT on July 30, 2013

watching this tropical wave !!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1952. Camille33
5:09 AM GMT on July 30, 2013
Quoting 1946. hurricanes2018:
not again!!

lol here we go again its exploding.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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my name is Jason I love reporting severe weather and hurricanes!! I love taking pictures of the weather to.. I live in new haven,conn I love the snow

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