Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 1:31 AM GMT on August 16, 2010
Well since I was gone, Tropical Depression 5 quickly formed and dissipated from Invest 94L then brought some heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds to much of the Gulf Coast and is still doing so now. But after days of flooding rains and roaring thunder in parts of AL/MS/FL, the remmants are now heading back Southward and sometime later tonight or tomorrow morning could move offshore. Once it does that, it's supposed to develop significantly over boiling SSTs and relatively low wind shear likely back into a depression or TS Danielle probably at that. It's supposed to make a more Western track after that and then possibly more Northwest and move back onshore most likely Louisiana. One of the models do indeed make this a hurricane actually going way more Southward than most predict and then more Southeast heading for a Southwest Florida landfall so if that happens, many of you (including me) in the Southern portion of Florida should keep an extremely close eye on the system for none of you really want a hurricane in your area with a few exceptions. But it's still supposed to be a Gulf Coast threat rather than anything else but a potential major threat at that if it undergoes rapid intensification which I'm not sure is really gonna happen but still might given the favorable conditions and decent time over water. Now there is a well-organized tropical wave over Central Africa which once it emerges into the Atlantic sometime a little later this week could be a threat to develop into a tropical storm as most of the models predict and then toward the weekend may intensify even more and possibly become another hurricane in the Central Atlantic approaching the Leeward Islands but it's way too early to tell whether this will be a threat to the US or not. Besides that, we also have the NOGAPS model hint at a possible tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua late this week but it's also impossible to tell the exact odds of a US threat, most likely the Gulf Coast if anything. So the tropics is certainly beginning to get very active as we enter the peak of the hurricane season and will even get more active by the time we get much closer to September. There is also a tropical wave (Invest 90E) in the Eastern Pacific which is over relatively unfavorable conditions to develop but might slowly get its act together over the next several days but even if this becomes somewhat strong it should not be a threat to any land mass let alone the US so it's more like a bonus area of interest if you're getting too bored of the Atlantic. Again, the tropics are beginning to go steeply up the hill of activity as we approach September and enter the peak of the hurricane season so definitely the tropics need to carefully watched over the next a month at least and 5 or more additional storms by the end of the month seem like a very high possibility so stay tuned.
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