Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 11:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
There is no shortage of activity in the tropics to keep an eye on, with category one Hurricane Cristobal forecast to spare the Continental US from a direct hit but might directly contribute to dangerous swells from Florida to New England. There are two areas of interest that have a valid possibility of development in the next 72 hours, one of which may or may not be a long-range threat to the CONUS and could add insult to injury for the Lesser Antilles--who suffered the brunt of Cristobal's deadly flash floods.
By far, the most prominent system in the tropics: Hurricane Cristobal, packing winds of around 75 MPH, is forecast to undergo some additional intensification before running into slightly less favorable conditions later in the week. A NE curve should steer it away from the mainland United States, that's the consensus, but any slight westward deviations in the track could put New England in play for tropical storm conditions including locally heavy downpours late week. This is an unlikely scenario, but not implausible by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, there exists the potential for such conditions in the island of Bermuda where a tropical storm (watch) is in effect. Expect rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inches, which is not quite enough to inflict dangerous flooding but look at Hispaniola and the Lesser Antilles where flash floods are to blame for a combined total of five deaths. This should serve as a key reminder that it is vital for your safety that you do not take risks when such scenarios arise.
There exists a very low probability for development in the next five days with the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic, but the Lesser Antilles should prepare for (yes) additional heavy rainfall capable of producing flash floods, atop of the disastrous conditions seen this past weekend with Cristobal's passing. It is far too early to rely on models, and vast uncertainty exists, given the possibility that dry air does not completely tear any remaining energy apart.
An area of disturbed weather off the coastline of Louisiana is headed west-southwest in the general direction of the Brownsville, TX area. This is a very disorganized cluster of activity that could ramp up rain chances for SE Texas in the next 48 hours but do little more than that.
There is the probability of cyclogenesis in the open Atlantic waters starting this weekend into next week. More intimate details on this evolving activity will be discussed next blog post.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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