Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 8:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
The past few days served as a key reminder that no matter what the model consensus is for a developing system, nothing is ever set in stone. This is due to the location and strength of high-pressure patterns and a location misreading, that the consensus has now shifted back to the south and west, indicating that the risk for a direct threat to the US Eastern Seaboard is far higher than my previous analysis. With Tropical Depression Four positioned near the SE Bahamas, folks along the South Carolina coastline and upwards are most susceptible to the high winds and flooding rainfall. Though, namely the Bermudan High, such pressure systems are subject to change in position and strength, interests in above mentioned areas should not hesitate to make their preparations this weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast as the system moves on a NW/N track parallel to the Florida East Coast and likely makes a NNE/NE turn by mid-week while in close proximity to the North Carolina Outer Banks. A fairly moist environment, coupled with relatively warm SSTs, should favor such intensification into a minimal hurricane (CATII in the event that it absorbs this moist area and takes advantage of the opportunity) prior to any landfall along the US East Coast. Long Island, Manhattan, Boston, you are not out of the question for increased rainfall and high winds in the next 6-8 days. It is a preliminary track and outlier models do hint at the legitimate (albeit relatively small) possibility of a direct hit on the Florida East Coast if it manages to slide under the ridge. Many factors can come into play, determining the overall path and peak intensity of Tropical Depression Four. Present alerts are as follows:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
Keep in mind that its lugging at a pace of 12 MPH, widespread rainfall amounts could top 6 inches in the island chain, which could contribute to the potential for pockets of life-threatening flash flooding, which often times is the main killer in weaker (but compact) systems. An update will be made Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, whenever time permits best. Have a safe weekend, those in the cone of uncertainty should take any precaution into their own hands and be vigilant for abrupt changes in forecast.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.