Tropical Update 2014: Closely Monitoring 96L For Potential Caribbean, GOM Threat

By: hurricaneben , 10:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

Following a lull in activity between Bertha and this developing system (96L), I have been too caught up in other priorities to make a valid update. As we approach the peak of the season, adversely pervasive dry air is inhibiting short-term development in the Central Atlantic but this might change in the coming days as 96L enters a more conducive environment in the NE Caribbean Sea. Uncertainty remains high and guidance models are split on whether Hispaniola and Cuba will take a direct blow or will the circulation manage to avoid much interaction with land and emerge into the Gulf Of Mexico where conditions may favor dangerously impressive intensification. Another scenario is a NW hook into The Bahamas and/or Florida before a sharp curve out to sea. Again, thanks to dry air, short-term development is a far fetched possibility but beyond the 48 hour time frame lies a much greater chance of such intensification. My time for this post is limited, but I'll make sure to provide a more articulate update by Thursday. Til then, Lesser Antilles, prepare for the vague possibility of TS conditions including flooding rainfall.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.