Tropical Update 2014: EPAC Activity Ramping Up

By: hurricaneben , 11:53 PM GMT on May 16, 2014

As we approach the start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season, we initially tend to look toward the Caribbean Sea for signs of significant development. In this case, the MJO is projected to be in its minimum phase at least through the middle of next month. Environmental conditions are comparatively conducive for development in the Eastern Pacific, as we are in our second day into the official Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season as of this writing and we are already monitoring the possibility of short term tropical cyclone formation.

An area of low pressure is slowly building in convection well to the southwest of Mexico's Pacific Coastline. Further development is expected, with supportive SSTs of 30-32C in its immediate path. Beyond the start to next week, the system could enter a considerably less conducive environment with a general cooling trend in SSTs and a spike in wind shear as it slowly tracks to the west/northwest and out to sea. As it stands, there is no threat to any land masses in the foreseeable future.

NHC: 30% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours, 50% chance of TC formation in the next five days.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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10:30 PM GMT on May 22, 2014
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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.