Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 4:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2013
What initially caught much of the US Gulf Coast on the edge amid fears that it may strengthen into a hurricane before landfall and produce potentially widespread damage, Tropical Storm Karen is barely hanging on as it slowly makes its way toward a landfall in SE Louisiana later today--winds still at around 40 MPH and any re-strengthening should be very slight, as it is running out of time to do so. Localized flooding remains a possibility but even the threat of that has definitely decreased since the past 24-48 hours. A sharp NE/ENE turn could bring it inland over Alabama/western Florida Panhandle as early as tomorrow afternoon into Monday, but as a weaker depression. Mandatory evacuations were declared for certain low-lying portions of SE Louisiana and there are states of emergencies in effect for Louisiana and Alabama in the past couple of days, but these may not be so necessary with the current weakening trend Karen has been going through. It doesn't mean you should let your guard down and rainfall of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (with isolated higher amounts) is capable of producing localized flooding of low-lying areas, it's just that the threat isn't widespread at this time. Minor storm surges and a few weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, accompanied by occasionally gusty winds up to gale force.
There is the possibility of development of a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic waters sometime this upcoming week. If this occurs, odds favor against any significant threat to land masses but there's still uncertainty as the potential of any development is several days out.
I'll have another update either tomorrow or on Monday.
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