Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 12:33 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
The system (97L) we've been tracking in the SW Caribbean remains rather disorganized but gradual development remains likely and we are tracking weak Tropical Storm Jerry which does not appear to be a threat to land.
Relatively unfavorable conditions are interfering with 97L's development in the SW Caribbean as it remains very disorganized. It is expected to follow a NW track possibly towards the Yucatan and Gulf Of Mexico where wind shear may be lower and more formidable development could occur. By the time it reaches the Gulf Of Mexico by mid to late week, a TD/TS forming is very probable but drier air further north should prevent significant additional intensification. Still it is something to watch as flooding rainfall may impact the Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico, Cayman Islands and Western Cuba--and the Gulf Coast may see some major impacts in their weather well down the road. NHC gives this a 40% chance of becoming a TC in the next five days.
The other entity in the tropics is more organized than 97L--thus being classified as Tropical Storm Jerry--but does not appear to be a threat to land whatsoever. The odds of this impacting the Azores Islands have dropped as it is not likely to stay together that long. Winds are around 40 MPH as of 5 PM EDT and some strengthening is expected in the next couple of days but it is not forecast to reach hurricane status anytime in the short term.
I'll have another update by Wednesday or Thursday, maybe sooner if warranted.
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