Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 10:04 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
I've been very busy with schoolwork and taking some long needed rests that I hadn't been able to update and the tropics were quiet anyway since my last post so I have returned 'from the dead' as we see the tropics start to pick up again. Invest 96L has a very strong chance of becoming a TD/TS in the next day or two and a weak tropical disturbance in the SW Caribbean may organize and is of significant concern to Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and possibly even the Lower 48 late in the upcoming week.
Invest 96L is continuing to show signs of organization as it approaches TD/TS status well to the NE of the Northernmost Lesser Antilles. Conditions are conducive for gradual intensification and there is the chance we might see this make a shot at hurricane strength towards the second half of the upcoming week. As far as threats to land go, it is not an immediate concern for any land masses though the Azores Islands may want to watch it into the end of the week if it can persist long enough. The NHC gives this a very high 70% of becoming a TD/TS in the coming five days. There is virtually no chance of a threat to the United States or any other land masses at this time.
SW Caribbean Activity
An area of disturbed weather is gathering together in the southwestern Caribbean and has a decent amount of model support in bringing it up to a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Caribbean and/or the eastern Gulf Of Mexico in the next few days. Flooding rainfall and increased winds will affect areas such as Jamaica, Cuba and/or the Cayman Islands regardless and it is expected to make it into the Gulf Of Mexico as it continues its NW track over lower shear. The conditions are favorable of steady, even quick, intensification so this may become something of serious interest as we roll on into the upcoming week. The NHC gives this a 10% chance of becoming a TC by Monday afternoon, but a decent 30% chance in the next five days. We could see these chances go up higher.
I'll probably have an update by Monday, so check up when possible.
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