Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 1:48 PM GMT on September 15, 2013
Within' a week and a half, we went from absolute quiet in the tropics to a very dangerous hurricane bearing down on a flood-stricken NE Mexico.
In the past 36 hours, Ingrid has strengthened into a mid-level category one with winds around 85 MPH and some additional strengthening should occur in the next 24 hours or so before it makes landfall in NE Mexico. The very high winds and the storm surges have the potential of causing damage such as downed trees and moderate structural damage as well as significant coastal flooding but the biggest threat by far is the rainfall flooding. Amounts of 10 to 15 inches, locally as high as 25 inches, is capable of making way for some widespread destructive flooding and landslides, potentially catastrophic. Even as we've seen with Fernand, which didn't have rainfall amounts higher than 15 inches or so, flooding damaged many houses and landslides contributed to 14 fatalities--so we may be looking at a deadly and very destructive situation here. Entire towns may be isolated by floodwaters, entire homes may be swept away and/or demolished, this is one that we definitely shouldn't keep our eyes off. As far as US impacts go, we are not looking at anything like that but still most forecasts calling for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall which is capable of producing urbanized minor flooding in South Texas (south of Corpus Christi), and high surf is also a major concern for anyone planning to swim around the South Padre Island/Brownsville area to Corpus Christi but with the rainfall coming ashore, most would probably stay away from the beaches by choice. But the end results in Mexico is not going to look well--I definitely wouldn't be surprised if we get a high death toll, potentially more than a hundred, but let's hope for the best.
Tropical Storm Manuel is about to make landfall along the Pacific Coast of Mexico, making winds around 70 MPH, and is another cause expected to contribute to the potential flooding disaster that may unfold in the next 18 to 48 hours. Similar rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches is expected to result in the potential for devastating flooding on the western side of Mexico but the interesting factor here is if the moisture from Manuel combines with Ingrid's, the potential for catastrophic flooding will really play itself out. The biggest threat with Manuel remains the flash flooding though minor to moderate wind damage is a less significant likelihood.
Humberto has dissipated but may regenerate in the coming days, possibly strengthen into a hurricane again, and there are no significant areas of interest to monitor.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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