Tropical Update 2013: Humberto Nearly A Hurricane;TS Gabrielle Bears Down On Bermuda

By: hurricaneben , 1:04 AM GMT on September 11, 2013

The tropics are now definitely showing signs of entering the peak of the season, with Tropical Storm Humberto on the very verge of becoming the season's first Atlantic hurricane and Tropical Storm Gabrielle impacting Bermuda with squally, windy weather and a potential threat to Newfoundland. Besides those 2 tropical cyclones, we have a potential candidate to become the next tropical cyclone in the Bay Of Campeche so a lot of activity to discuss this September evening.

TS Humberto
After forming Sunday afternoon, Tropical Storm Humberto has strengthened at a gradual but steady pace. It is now packing winds up to around 70 MPH and further strengthening could bring it up to hurricane status as early as the next few hours and possibly near CAT II status by tomorrow night or the first part of Thursday before moving over somewhat less favorable conditions. It is probably going to reach hurricane status by the very early AM hours tomorrow morning but if it manages to hold onto TS strength 'til after 11 AM tomorrow, it could break the record for the latest-forming Atlantic hurricane since the satellite era began in 1966. But that isn't likely right now. That record is being held by 2002's Gustav. This does not pose a direct threat to any land masses at this time, and should more than likely end up a fish storm.

TS Gabrielle
This one's expected to stay a bit weaker but is much more of a concern for land masses--particularly Bermuda which may receive the worst weather in the very short term. Winds are now up to 60 MPH as it makes its closest approach to the island. Tropical storm force winds are already being reported and rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches may produce an isolated risk of minor to moderate flash flooding, but below major levels. The main concern will be plenty of downed trees, power lines and a storm surge of 2 to 3 feet above water levels. Overall I don't expect a lot in the way of damage--nothing like 'Fabian' (2003) and 'Igor' (2010), just a wet and windy ordeal lasting into late AM/PM hours of tomorrow. Nova Scotia and potentially Newfoundland should keep a close eye out for the latest trends as a direct hit on Atlantic Canada appears to be a likelihood by Friday or Saturday, no direct impacts to the Lower 48 is expected but increased swells are possible especially for the New England coastline late in the week.

Invest 93L
Invest 93L is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone before coming ashore the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in the next 12 hours or so but is definitely looking likely to try to spin up into at least a weak TS in the Bay Of Campeche towards the end of the week, and I won't be surprised if we see a mid range to strong TS or higher at some point if this manages to take its time once over the very favorable waters. With all that said, models are sold on taking this into Mainland Mexico with a threat to South Texas not out of the question, and they are in a major rainfall deficit so that may actually be beneficial for the Brownsville/Corpus Christi region and areas inland towards the Rio Grande Valley. There is a rather slight 20% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours but through Sunday evening, the chances exist at a very strong and formidable 70%.

I'll have another update anytime through Thursday.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.