Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 5:50 PM GMT on September 07, 2013
The tropics are definitely picking up in activity but still remain rather quiet and harmless for early to mid September which is when the most activity generally occurs. We haven't had a hurricane form yet--the latest date for hurricane formation in recorded history took place on September 11 (2002) and now we are at the 7th of September, 5 days away from breaking that record. Could we break it? Certainly possible but with Invest 91L expected to develop and possibly near hurricane strength by mid-week, we might as well come in with a close tie (possibly beat it by a day or two).
Incredibly dry air, partially due to a record breaking drought in Brazil, has prevented significant development in the open Atlantic waters so far this season which is why we haven't seen anything hold together from Africa to the Lesser Antilles region (though Chantal pretty much came close) and there haven't been any hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic basin. This may change as early as the next 3 or 4 days with Invest 91L a potential threat to develop as it emerges off of Africa and a TD/TS forming by the start of the week is looking increasingly likely. Some models have been persistent on bringing it up to hurricane strength, others keep it rather weak, so we'll have to see about this one but fortunately one thing that is being agreed on is that the only land masses that have the potential to see any significant impacts at this time are the lightly populated Azores Islands, and the potential there alone isn't high at all.
Tropical Depression Eight is falling apart as it slowly climbs its way over the rough mountainous terrain of Mainland Mexico. General rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches has been reported in the past 24 hours or so but at this time, it doesn't seem like any major flooding impacts have been reported.
Another weakening system is Tropical Depression Lorena which is just offshore SW Baja California and expected to turn west just before dissipating in the next day or so. Locally heavy rainfall has resulted in localized reports of flash flooding over southern Baja California, but so far no notable damage or any deaths for that matter.
Other tropical waves have low to moderate chances of development, most importantly the remnants of Gabrielle, but neither appear to be a direct threat to land at this time. I'll try to update before Monday, and we might have a new TD or TS by then.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Comments will take a few seconds to appear.