Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 9:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
The tropics are back at the game, as it has remained a very quiet peak so far, but now we have a newly formed tropical depression a little bit sooner than thought from 97L.
Tropical Depression Seven
TD-7, which is an imminent concern for land, might play out to be a major rainmaker for Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 10 inches, are anticipated in the above mentioned areas as well as portions of the US Virgin Islands and this could lead to the potential for dangerous (but probably not widespread) flash flooding--more over mountainous terrain. Again, it is expected to become a tropical storm before hitting or brushing the eastern tip of Dominican Republic (there is uncertainty, so the track can always change somewhat) but should remain a rather weak one at that as it comes through land. Of course you don't need a particularly powerful system to cause catastrophic flooding conditions but I don't see a catastrophe unfolding here--just localized flooding damage. Once over the open Atlantic waters, it should encounter a relatively favorable area for development and slow but definitely more steady strengthening may occur. The odds of a direct threat to the Lower 48 are slim in part to the patterns that will shift it to the NE down the road, but Bermuda may be more in play by the start of next week.
Too early to tell much about track and intensity beyond the next couple of days, the season's first hurricane is definitely a valid possibility (but not an overt likelihood) and eastern Hispaniola as well as the NE Caribbean should brace for some continued heavy rainfall and the significant risk of flash flooding. If you have interests in Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and/or the US Virgin Islands, it would be wise to pay attention to the latest forecasts and any possible evacuations or precaution instructions from authorities.
A tropical disturbance in the Eastern Pacific, labeled as 99E, could become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two as it heads on a course that would likely take it near/over southern Baja California and possibly toward the pacific coast of Mexico. It is worth mentioning too because it is a considerable threat to land and with the path it's taking, monsoonal moisture could overspread a drenched Southwest US with the possibility of more flash flooding after moisture from Ivo killed one and prompted water rescues due to flooding in Arizona and Nevada. Not to mention there is the chance of flash flooding over Baja California and/or NW Mexico, especially if it gets going.
Another update will be made tomorrow or Friday.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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