Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 9:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2013
The tropics remain quiet in terms of full-fledged tropical cyclone but there are more than a few areas of interest worth mentioning that have some potential of development so it's not completely quiet but for this time of the year, I would typically expect at least one or even two tropical cyclones. Maybe that'll change later in the week, how high are the odds of that?
Invest 97L is under a decently favorable area for development as it chugs into the eastern Caribbean and generally towards Hispaniola but proximity to land is what's inhibiting significant development and what should at least for the next 2 days or so. Models generally take it on a path that would likely take it into Haiti or the Dominican Republic by around Thursday then N and NE potentially out to sea beginning late in the week. Now that's when development into something significant (i.e. a stronger tropical storm/hurricane) is much more plausible. Relatively low wind shear exists in that region and due to the lack of land interaction, any considerable organization will be much easier to get done. It is quite possible that we do get a TD/weak TS by the time it reaches what should be the Hispaniola coastline but depending on how long it stays over land, we could see it pretty much fall apart all over again--or if it takes a more eastward path which would hardly bring it over land at all, we won't see as much weakening. Flash flooding will definitely be a concern for the struggling infrastructure of Haiti, regardless. Fortunately, the one thing that is being agreed on is that the Lower 48 will most likely be spared from any direct impacts, but a sizable threat to Bermuda cannot be ruled out at all at this time. We will get a better idea by the end of the week for sure, this is all speculation for now, nothing formed yet. The NHC gives it a 30% chance of TC formation by Thursday afternoon, and a 50% chance by the next five days. I'd raise the latter up to around 60-70%, and a 30% chance of us seeing a hurricane at some point from 97L.
A tropical wave just off of Africa is under an area of very dry air. Some slow development cannot be ruled out but right now, it does not appear to be a direct threat to land and the odds are strongly stacked against this becoming anything of significance in the next several days.
A tropical disturbance is about to emerge into the eastern Bay Of Campeche. Conditions are ripe for some slow development too with this one and a TD/weak TS just cannot be ruled out before this comes ashore Veracruz by Thursday or Friday, but still isn't looking very probable at this time. Flooding will be a concern anyway so keep an eye on your local forecasts if you have any interests in Veracruz, because rainfall is a huge player with any tropical system. The NHC gives this a 20% chance of TC formation at all.
There is action in the Eastern Pacific but I am very busy and will not bring that up with this blog post. I'll have a new one by Thursday and that's when I will include the EPAC system as well as the rest of the AOIs or any new systems that develop.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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