Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 12:03 AM GMT on August 24, 2013
The tropics, while not quite active yet, has certain areas of interest both in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific that are being watched. The Pacific appears to be the most active with Tropical Storm Ivo possibly bringing some squally weather to Baja California over the weekend...and could enhanced moisture cause a monsoonal type event for the Southwest? That and the likelihood of a currently quiet Atlantic significantly ramping up in activity next week, all coming up.
Tropical Storm Ivo has gathered a bit of strength since last night, now with winds up to around 45 MPH which still makes it fairly weak but competent and very potent in terms of the rainfall potential for not only Baja California but possibly the Southwest US as well. We're talking Arizona, inland California and southern Nevada seeing a decent flood threat because of an increasingly likely period of wet weather, some areas of which could use the rainfall. It may come very close to Baja California this weekend so the outer bands could easily produce up to 4 inches of rainfall for central Baja California. This could contribute to some flooding problems, not a whole lot, but still some considerable impacts on the weather for folks there. Even though it should stay well to the south and west of the Southwest US, major moisture outflow means the enhanced potential of a wet weather period basically peaking around Sunday. Therefore flash flood watches are up. It could dissipate by Sunday or Monday right off the coast of northwest Baja California, so for now it just appears to be a major soaker for both areas but not likely to produce widespread major flooding.
Now, on to the Atlantic basin. It's been getting a tad bit more busy in the past day or two but not a whole lot. We got a weak trough of low pressure in the northern Gulf Of Mexico that has a very limited shot at becoming possibly a weak TD/TS briefly before reaching Texas and Mexico tomorrow night but the chances of that aren't looking good, it was slightly more potent-looking earlier today. Still rainfall of 2 to 3 inches may be a possibility from Galveston area to SE Louisiana through the weekend, but this isn't enough to create much more than just some minor flooding and ponding. Onto another tropical disturbance near the Yucatan, upper level winds are looking conducive for some development as it travels its way through the southernmost part of the Bay Of Campeche this weekend but land proximity will likely prevent any significant development. But a TD/weak TS briefly spinning up cannot be ruled out, and if it manages to sneak a little more north than forecast, the chances are even higher. NHC gives this a reasonably low 10% chance of TC formation due to the land proximity, but I could see it being placed at around 20-30% or higher if it does sneak to the north. Just because these 2 systems aren't likely to develop at the moment, I am not letting my guard down and a decreasing presence of SAL and higher chance of a more moist environment should make way for a much, much more active Atlantic basin from the weekend after this one likely through the end of September. And with models persistently hinting at a vigorous wave coming off of Africa by that time and developing into a more significant tropical cyclone, the quiet isn't expected to last much longer.
The update was relatively long due to various interesting tropical topics here, but I'll make another update sometime this weekend.
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.